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Philippine Elections, 2010

2010-04-10T12:26:00.004+08:00

Today, voting has started for overseas Filipinos. I went to the Philippine Embassy here in Singapore to cast my vote. As before, it was a pleasant experience as the staff and volunteers are efficient and well-organized.

This is how i voted:

President: Noynoy Aquino
Vice-President: Mar Roxas

Senators:

1. Martin Bautista (Liberal Party)
2. Rufino Biazon (Liberal Party)
3. Franklin Drilon (Liberal Party)
4. Teofisto Guingona III (Liberal Party)
5. Risa Hontiveros-Baraquel (Liberal Party)
6. Alexander Lacson (Liberal Party)
7. Brig. General Danilo Lim (Independent)
8. Liza Maza (Independent)
9. Satur Ocampo (Bayan Muna)
10. Sergio Osmena III (Independent)
11. Ariel O. Querubin (Nacionalista Party)
12. Adel Tamano (Nacionalista Party)

[For comparison, here were my choices for Senator during the last elections in May 2007.]

Party List: Akbayan

Reality as a Holographic Projection

2009-01-31T11:22:00.004+08:00

The Holographic Principle states that the everyday reality that we experience (including you and me) is a projection from somewhere else, i.e. the boundary of the universe. The 'projector' (similar to "R2D2's projector in the picture above) is a two dimensional surface where everything exists. The projections (like Princess Leia's hologram above) is in three-dimensions. In a sense, we are really two-dimensional pixels living on that distant surface who are projected in three-dimensions.

Strange as this may seem, physicists may have found an opportunity to confirm this via a device that was built for another purpose. They take advantage of the fact that something with three dimensions (an object with length, width and height like a box) can hold more stuff than something that has only two dimensions (an object with just length and width like a sheet of paper). A two-dimensional pixel when projected in three-dimensions will appear more blurred than the original and if such blurring is detected, then this would support the view that we are holograms.

[Personal speculation: It would take a longer explanation but it occurs to me that if we are holographic projections from a two-dimensional surface, by analogy, one possible way from the Universe to end is to evaporate, or collapse into an infinitely dense point, i.e. a space-time singularity sort of like the fate described in the Big Crunch but in a different way...]

Zone - Secret Base

2009-01-16T00:05:00.002+08:00

English - Briton vs. Singaporean

2009-01-15T00:28:00.005+08:00

Someone emailed me this comparison...

Who says our English is teruk? Just see below - Ours is simple, short, concise, straight-to- point, effective etc........

WHEN GIVING A CUSTOMER BAD NEWS
Britons: I'm sorry, Sir, but we don't seem to have the sweater you want in your size, but if you give me a moment, I can call the other outlets for you.
Singaporean : No Stock.

RETURNING A CALL
Britons: Hello, this is John Smith. Did anyone page for me a few moments ago?
Singaporean : Hello, who page?

ASKING SOMEONE TO MAKE WAY .
Britons: Excuse me, I'd like to get by. Would you please make way?
Singaporean : S-kew me

WHEN SOMEONE OFFERS TO PAY
Britons: Hey, put your wallet away, this drink is on me.
Singaporean : No-need, lah.

WHEN ASKING FOR PERMISSION
Britons: Excuse me, but do you think it would be possible for me to enter through this door?
Singaporean : (pointing the door) can AR?

WHEN ENTERTAINING
Britons: Please make yourself right at home.
Singaporean : Don't be shy, lah!

WHEN DOUBTING SOMEONE
Britons: I don't recall you giving me the money.
Singaporean : Where got?

WHEN DECLINING AN OFFER
Britons: I'd prefer not to do that, if you don't mind.
Singaporean : Don't want la...

IN DISAGREEING ON A TOPIC OF DISCUSSION
Britons: Err. Tom, I have to stop you there. I understand where you're coming from, but I really have to disagree with what you said about the issue.
Singaporean : You mad, ah?

WHEN ASKING SOMEONE TO LOWER THEIR VOICE.
Britons: Excuse me, but could you please ! Lower your voice, I'm trying to concentrate over here.
Singaporean : Shut up lah!

WHEN ASKING SOMEONE IF HE/SHE KNOWS YOU.
Britons: Excuse me, but I noticed you staring at me for some time. Do I know you?
Singaporean : See what, see what?

WHEN ASSESSING A TIGHT SITUATION.
Britons: We seem to be in a bit of a predicament at the moment.
Singaporean : Die-lah!!

WHEN TRYING TO FIND OUT WHAT HAD HAPPENED
Britons: Will someone tell me what has just happened?
Singaporean : Wat happen Why like that....

WHEN SOME ONE DID SOMETHING WRONG
Britons: This isn't the way to do it here let me show you,
Singaporean : like that also don't know how to do!!!!

WHEN ONE IS ANGRY
Britons: Would you mind not disturbing me
Singaporean : Celaka u

Has a ring of truth which is why i'm posting it.

Gaza

2009-01-01T01:21:00.005+08:00

In solidarity with the people of Gaza. (Via 3Quarksdaily.)

Update Jan-2-2008: Via Crookedtimber, here's a Petition calling for an end to the violence. I hope you take the time to sign it.

Princess Princess　－　世界でいちばん熱い夏

2008-10-31T12:05:00.005+08:00

Update Jan-15-2009: Earlier video taken down so i reposted another version.

Update Feb-11-2009: Video taken down again, so i reposted another version.

Jun Lozada's Open Letter to Joc Joc Bolante

2008-10-27T13:05:00.001+08:00

Jun Lozada offers some advice to Joc Joc Bolante.

Dear Joc-Joc,

Allow me to call you Joc-Joc as you have been known in the media and by many Filipinos too. As of this morning of the 24th of October, 2008, news about your lawyer petitioning the Supreme Court to issue a Temporary Restraining Order (TRO) against the implementation of the arrest warrant issued by the Senate upon your arrival, hugs the headline of the major dailies together with the radio and TV news broadcast. The whole country seems to be anxiously awaiting your return, I am sure your family is also eager to see you back as well.

It is about your family that I am writing you about, because of what my own family went through when I was in a similar situation that you are in now. Being a father myself, I know that the welfare and safety of your family is your foremost concern in the middle of all the controversy and the uncertainty that you are facing.

There is so much fear right now that pervades your life along with your loved ones. Questions such as: how safe are you in Manila? Is there a possibility that someone may attempt to harm you or your family? How are the people that you are covering for, going to help you? How are you going to answer questions from media? How can the people you are covering be trusted with their dilatory tactics to get you off the hook, away from the prying questions of the opposition senators?

We get caught up in all of these questions of “us versus them” way of thinking, that we almost forget to ask the right questions anymore, right questions such as: how are my children hurt with the truth that I am generally perceived as a corrupt criminal by the Filipino nation? How are my children going to explain my involvement in this fertilizer scam to their friends? How is my wife going to face our friends and still be seen as a person with integrity? What legacy am I leaving my children? Is leaving them with millions of money and big houses in Ayala Alabang better than leaving them with a good name?

I am sharing these with you, because if there is one thing that I did regret in telling the truth about how this Arroyo administration has been stealing from the very people it is supposed to serve, it is that I was not able to prepare my wife and my children well enough against the backlash of this government’s wrath against me for telling the people about their crimes. You still have time to discern your next move, whether or not you are going to tell the people the truth about the fertilizer scam or bring the secret to your grave, just like Romy Neri. As a father, I am asking you to please think about your children, please consider the legacy you are going to leave to them. Are you going to forever leave them as pariahs branded as children of a thief–or as children of someone who did wrong and yet chose to serve his country at the end, rather than to be a captive forever of the dark forces he used to serve? And please prepare your family whatever way you may wish to choose. Discuss this together with them because at the end of it all, they will suffer or be affected more as a consequence of your decision.

Secondly as a fellow Rotarian, how about asking the Four Way test as part of your discernment process? Is it the Truth? Is it fair to everyone concerned? Will it build goodwill and better friendship? Will it be beneficial to everyone concerned? You have been a good Rotarian for many good years of your life. Will you now turn your back on these ideals in the biggest test of your Rotarian values?

Lastly, let me share with you one of the most profound lessons I have learned in my own journey towards the truth, a truth not as a goal to be reached but rather as a way of life to be lived. I have found that the opposite of all the fears I am confronted with is not courage but faith. It is faith in a God who said, “I am the way, the truth and the life.”, a just God who will judge us not in terms of the wealth we have on earth but in terms of what we did to our fellow human beings. It is my faith in this God that allowed me to face all the fears that I am confronted with when I decided to tell the truth that I know about the NBN-ZTE scam. May you find the faith to lead you to the Light of God’s love that no darkness can ever defeat, not even a President of the Republic of the Philippines.

May God bless you with the wisdom to choose your path.

Jun Lozada
2008-24-Oct

(Also via Ricky Carandang and Ellen Tordesillas.)

George Michael Unplugged - I Can't Make You Love Me

2008-10-19T03:16:00.002+08:00

Paul Krugman Wins the Nobel Prize

2008-10-14T01:08:00.004+08:00

Excellent and timely choice for the Nobel Prize in Economics. Here's a comprehensive background courtesy of Tyler Cowen as well as an overview of Krugman's New Trade Theory by Alex Tabarrok. Krugman's books The Accidental Theorist and Pedding Prosperity are among my favorites. For more, you can visit his Unofficial Web Page.

Update Oct-16-2008: Here's Paul Krugman explaining in layman's terms the work for which he was given the award.

Why Not the Philippines?

2008-10-12T20:07:00.001+08:00

...as the Conservative's 'Canada'. I'm confident the Red State voters will find a lot of ideological soulmates over here.

Update 9:55pm: Let me clarify, this is by no means, an invitation.

Bhangra Michael Jackson

2008-10-08T22:36:00.001+08:00

From Britain's Got Talent. (Hat Tip 3Quarksdaily)

Snapping out of the Financial Crisis

2008-10-05T23:39:00.011+08:00

Back in the year 1582, the dates October 5 to 14 (inclusive) did not exist in the Roman Catholic world* by virtue of a decree by Pope Gregory XIII. This meant that October 4 was followed by October 15. Skipping over ten days was a necessary step to compensate for the misalignment with the seasons that crept into the Julian Calendar over the centuries.

I wonder if the Chairman of the United States Federal Reserve (whose authority is often compared with that of the Pope) can fix the current subprime mortgage-induced Financial Crisis in a manner similar to Pope Gregory's approach.

This is not to say that the Fed can solve the USA's very real economic problems by decree, nor do i think that it is possible to avoid a recession. However, i believe that these real economic problems are being compounded by a crisis involving artifacts of finance and accounting. It is this latter element which i believe can be eliminated by decree. The current crisis can be broken down into a few related, but distinct elements:

A. Collapse in House Prices: The bursting of the Housing Bubble has impaired the ability of mortgage holders to pay off their housing loans.

B. Reduced Demand: With the fall in the values of houses and other investments, the elimination of the Wealth Effect has resulted in a decrease in consumer demand which feeds the economic downturn.

C. Credit Crunch (Internal): The reluctance of banks and other financial institutions to extend loans to each other due to the uncertainty in the financial health of these institutions as a result of their having traded in potentially toxic financial instruments.

D. Credit Crunch (External): The unwillingness by banks and financial institutions to extend loans has spilled over to a general to businesses, government and the general public.

Figure 1: Elements of Economic Crisis (click on image to enlarge)
While nothing much can be done with the collapse of house prices ('A') and the resulting decrease in consumer demand ('B'), i believe there may yet be an opportunity to decree-away the Credit Crunch among Financial Institutions ('C'), and save the real economy from the worst effects of such a credit crunch ('D').

Update Oct-6-2008: Economist blogger J. Bradford DeLong, gives an indication of the relative proportions of some of the above categories:

Category	Value (in US Dollars)
Mortgages (A)	11 Trillion
Financial Assets(C)	60 Trillion
Business Borrowings (D)**	0.2 to 1.4 Trillion

Former Lehman Brothers Chairman Richard Fuld, in his testimony before Congress made the following recommendation moving forward:

"We need to set up a master netting system where all trades and transaction, positions, are all downloaded nightly. The regulator would have a complete view of the financial landscape."

This is an opportune statement since part of what i have in mind is for the Fed (or designated regulator) to set-up and use such a master netting system to offset the toxic financial instruments that these banks and financial institutions owe each other. The other part of what i have in mind involves actions such as a declaration by the regulator that Credit Default Swaps (CDS) will no longer be honored and any premiums paid on this financial instrument will be returned (and any income recognized on these instruments reversed). The objective of such type of regulatory actions would be to untangle the complex web of derivatives that are currently undermining confidence in and paralyzing the global financial system.

Update Oct-7-2008: Economist-blogger Tyler Cowen reports that the proposed clearinghouse for Over the Counter (OTC) derivatives is moving closer to reality. As Cowen explained:

"In essence homogenization and trading through a clearinghouse limits the leverage issue to a single, easily-regulated institution and therefore it limits the problem of counterparty risk"

Update Oct-8-2008: Physicist-blogger Sabine Hossenfelder makes a good point in highlighting the virtual character of much of money (and credit)...

"Now keep in mind that only a negligible amount of the money traded is actually used for consume. The vast amount of it is a pushing back and forth of promises, people trying to be smart, people panicking, people losing faith, people trying to save what they think is left. There are records of all these trades."

...and recommends, among other things, to "Reset the distribution to an earlier state ".

Update Oct-11-2008 10:40am: I just tuned in to CNBC and found the talking heads criticizing the underlying concept behind Credit Default Swaps (CDS). My question is, why only now? Where was such criticism during the good times when CNBC (among others) was cheerleading the bubble? In any case, i sense that the underlying zeitgeist is starting to move toward my suggestion above to declare these instruments null and void.

*As per the referenced Wikipedia entry, among the non-Catholic countries, the Gregorian calendar was adopted much later.
**range of values from 2003 to 2007.

Tokyo Rush

2008-09-21T16:14:00.000+08:00

Music starts at 0:40.

Middle Class Revolt Against Democracy

2008-09-18T00:09:00.000+08:00

With the benefit of hindsight, we can see that the Philippine Middle Class has served as the bellwether for two trends, the first being the advance of democratic reforms in the 1980's and 1990's, while the second is its subsequent retreat a decade later. The original EDSA People Power Revolution in 1986 which ended the Marcos dictatorship, heralded similar pro-democracy movements notably the Revolutions of 1989 that resulted in the collapse of Communism in Eastern Europe.

On the other hand, the second such People Power movement in the Philippines (aka EDSA Dos), while retaining the superficial characteristics of its predecessor, toppled a genuinely elected President, and is therefore considered by many as a reversal of democracy. Whatever the merits and demerits of EDSA Dos, the subsequent silence and rationalizations for inaction by the Philippine Middle Class when confronted with the reality of Electoral Fraud by the incumbent further validates its retreat from previous democratic aspirations. As this featured article observes, this Middle Class-led retreat from democracy is now a worldwide trend.

I believe that the main drivers for such a reactionary turn has been the ability of the poor to assert their numerical superiority to vote in their chosen candidate into Office, as has happened in Latin America's Electoral Revolutions. Unfortunately for the relatively fewer Middle Class, these chosen leaders either do not have their respect (as in the case of the late FPJ) or advocate policies that are perceived to be contrary to Middle Class interests (as in the case of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez or Bolivia's Evo Morales). What makes it easier for the Middle Class to turn away from democracy is the unfortunate fact that many among their ranks are afflicted with an Elitist Mindset and do not consider the poor as equals when it comes to the exercise of democratic rights. In Thailand, this sense of superiority has become the basis for the Thai democracy activists' logic as described by Randy David:

"What Thailand’s democracy activists say they are fighting for seems to be something more. They see the pursuit of democracy as the protracted struggle to organize the poor as empowered political subjects, to wean them away from their subjection as an army of docile voters activated purely by money and patronage. They are determined to keep at bay the traditional politicians that have preyed upon the ignorance and vulnerability of the Thai masses—by constitutional means if possible, or by extra-constitutional pressure if necessary."

These rationalizations are as self-serving as they are familiar. Over here, i expect that similar plans are underway to make the Philippine 2010 elections the last one that formally adheres to the principle of one-man/one-vote.

Related Entries:

Teriyaki Burger

2008-09-01T00:49:00.000+08:00

Neville Chamberlain in Context

2008-08-27T23:20:00.003+08:00

In response to my reference to Neville Chamberlain in my previous post, my friend Melvin offers the following thought-provoking analyses:

"Interesting thought about your comment that makes it sound as if Neville Chamberlain was responsible for bringing in a predicament to Britain prior to World War Two.

I am of the opinion that Chamberlain was trying to obtain 'peace in [their] time'. He probably could have been aware that British forces were not (yet) ready to face a suddenly and surprisingly resurgent Germany (whose capabilities should have been made in check by the burden of war reparations that was imposed on it as a loser of the previous Great War). It was the depression-hit 1930s after all. Britain, France, and other countries were struggling with the economic crisis at that time (which is probably the reason why a desperate Germany even considered being aggressors, spurred on by a feeling that they were unjustly punished for the Great War).

The isolationist stance of the new world power United States was not comforting -- and it showed during the Manchurian and Ethiopian invasions and the Austrian annexation. The pariah Soviet Union looked very menacing, as she was intent on exporting her revolution outside her borders and undermining the capitalist empires. Winston Churchill could probably have done exactly what Chamberlain did in 1938."

He adds...

"About the situations in the late 1930s. I don't think anyone could be sure whether Hitler will no longer be making more land grabs. Up to that time, Hitler's annexations were territories where Germans lived.

As for Chamberlain's credibility [to lead in World War 2], how similar would his situation be with Woodrow Wilson, who won the 1916 election with the slogan 'He kept us out of the war'...

...Could Chamberlain just have been echoing the sentiments of the British in 1938? The British fought a grueling 4-year war just 20 years before, where she lost many of her citizens and badly dented the mighty British Empire.

I am really wondering whether Britain and France were really ready to fight Germany at that point. World War II was won largely because of two other countries -- the menace Soviet Union fighting on their side and the United States joining in more than 2 years after the war started.

It is hard to imagine Germany allying themselves with the Soviets. Hitler was also strongly anti-Communist and thinks the Slav peoples do not belong to the Aryan race. The Nazis and the Communists were (indirectly) fighting each other in the very bloody Spanish Civil War that was happening at that time. Maybe Chamberlain thought Germany could be exhausted by that war, and he could really trade peace in their time?"

Neville Chamberlain's name is often mentioned in the context of Appeasement, but Melvin's description of the factors that Chamberlain had to consider gives us an idea that reality is never that clear-cut.

Update Sept-07-2008: Commenter Karl adds...

"Maybe another reason for Chamberlain not to go to war aside from war fatigue is that he was dying at that time. After he resigned as PM, he was assigned as an adviser to Churchill for the war but, unfortunately, he had to resign again because he was terminally ill. He died of cancer in 1940."

Swissy - How It All Started

2008-08-23T01:16:00.003+08:00

Cool OPM from Swissy*.

*The above and other similarly good songs are available in her album, She Smiles. Also available on iTunes.

The Day Ninoy Died

2008-08-22T11:06:00.001+08:00

I remember it was a weekend, when i heard the news (either on TV or on radio - i no longer remember), i immediately went upstairs and told my Dad. As a fifteen year old high school senior, i really didn't know and care much about politics so i was surprised at the reaction that was etched in his face, as if some part of the world crumbled.

The coming days and months would make it clear to me how much things have changed for the worse and my reaction, along with that of my fellow La Sallites, was anger - at Ninoy, as well as ambivalence. (You can get a flavor of what the prevailing sentiment among the student body at that period, from this contemporary post by fellow blogger Rom. We were such a reactionary bunch.) I was thinking to myself, how dare he come home and ruin the best years of my life? High school was supposed to be a fun time when i was supposed to finally meet girls. Now all i have to look forward to are brownouts, bombings and NPA attacks which means i wouldn't be able to get out of the house that much.

Somehow, we adapted and high school still turned out to be among the best years, and eventually, i came around to realize that Ninoy's coming home was a good idea, if not for him, for the Filipinos in general.

If it has to be war...

2008-08-19T00:21:00.003+08:00

...let's go about it the right way.

Those responsible for getting us into this predicament cannot be the same ones to lead us out of it. At the very least, no one deserves to die just to further their agenda. In the UK, for example, Neville Chamberlain had to be replaced by Winston Churchill.
Related to this, we need to strengthen the Philippine Military by purging it of officers who acted as hired bodyguards of the present leadership and reinstate those who embody its true ideals and know how to fight.
Instead of relying on private armies, vigilante groups, all those fighting on the government side should be regularized. This is to prevent the problem of having to deal with private warlord armies in the aftermath.
Any conflict would not be isolated to Mindanao, so prepare for a general mobilization. Consider conscription.
My fellow bloggers seem to be confident that the MILF does not represent the Muslim people and are no more than bandits. I'm not so sure but even granting that premise, the conduct of the war should be such that we take care not to make this a generalized Christian vs. Muslim conflict. It will be difficult to do this once bombs start going off in Manila, but the Government, Media and Civil Society groups (Secular, Christian and Muslim) should prepare for this. If necessary, laws against Hate Speech must be promulgated.

I'll add to the list if i think of anything else. Feel free to contribute in the comments section.

Princess Princess - 19 Growing Up

2008-08-16T15:15:00.000+08:00

Some late-80's J-Rock.

Cuban Missile Crisis Redux...

2008-08-14T01:36:00.005+08:00

...that's what we could be in for if the United States and Russia miscalculate in their respective acts of brinkmanship in and around Georgia.

Source: BBC
The BBC reports that the US Military is going to deliver humanitarian aid to Georgia. While this is consistent with their past actions in Burma after Cyclone Nargis and in the Philippines after Typhoon Fengshen(Frank) where the Americans deployed their Navy for this purpose, doing the same thing in a situation where Russia is one of the belligerents has the potential to further destabilize the situation.

If matters deteriorate further, this time around, Fidel Castro's role* could be reprised by Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili.

Update August 17, 2008: US TV Network Fox News interviews Amanda Kokoeva, a 12-year old American girl visiting relatives in South Ossetia when the Georgian-South Ossetian war started. She clarified...

"...i just wanna say that i was running from Georgian troops bombing our city, not Russian troops. I wanna say 'thank you' to the Russian troops that were helping us out.".

(Hat tip: Antiwar.com.)

*As per Wikipedia, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, "In a personal letter to Khrushchev dated October 27, 1962, Castro urged him to launch a nuclear first strike against the United States if Cuba were invaded, but Khrushchev rejected any first strike response."

Joe Hisaishi - Kaze no Tourimichi

2008-08-10T03:15:00.001+08:00

Beautiful soundtrack.

A Framework for Making Food Subsidies, Land Reform & Victory Gardens Work

2008-08-04T04:10:00.000+08:00

In my previous blog entry, along with the flat tax, i proposed 20 pesos per day food stamps that every Filipino adult (ages 18 to 64) can avail of if he/she chooses to. Since then, i have thought out further details on how this arrangement might work while at the same time help in implementing land reform as well as increase local food production. This approach is summarized in the following diagram:

Figure 1: Framework for Food Subsidies, Land Reform & Victory Gardens
(click on image to enlarge)

(to be continued)

The Middle Class Way of Life...

2008-08-03T15:53:00.000+08:00

...is fragile, and can only be preserved by choosing the right set of values and collectively defending them.

Horie Mitsuko Live Concert 2000

2008-08-02T03:26:00.001+08:00

Spirited performance.

The Benefits of Sharing the Income Tax Burden: A Possible Scenario

2008-07-31T08:15:00.011+08:00

In the my preceding post, i made some suggestions related to taxes, wages and safety nets. Depending on which segment of society you may belong to, chances are, you would have liked some portions of the proposal and disliked others. However, i believe that the proposals have to be taken as a package because there should be an element of give-and-take, where benefits and burdens are widely shared among the various Economic Classes within Philippine Society. A visual summary of the benefits and burdens allocated to each sector is shown below.
Figure 1: Tax, Wages & Safety Nets: Trade-offs Between the Classes (Click on image to enlarge)
To give a more concrete example on the potential benefits of the above, i'd like to walk through a hypothetical scenario in which the above package of recommendations were implemented back in 2006. I chose this year because this was when the most recent Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) was conducted, the results of which i can then use as basis for this scenario building exercise.

A. The 2006 FIES Results

In terms of average individual incomes per segment (classified in deciles), the FIES for 2006 shows the following:

Table 1: 2006 FIES Average Income, Expenses and Savings by Income Decile
Notice that the annual savings of the richest ten percent of Filipinos (at 156K pesos) is bigger than all the other income segments combined. At the other extreme, you have the poorest thirty percent, on average, actually ending up with a deficit, i.e. having more expenses than income.

Consolidating all the individual incomes within each category, we get the total incomes per decile...

Table 2: 2006 FIES Total Income, Expenses and Savings by Income Decile
...which can in turn be represented visually below:

Figure 2: 2006 FIES Income and Savings
(Click on image to enlarge)
The 2006 FIES reveals a situation where one-third of our population is unable to meet its expenses much less save for the future (as represented by the people who are underwater in the above diagram). What then would the situation be if my mix of proposals were implemented? The rest of this entry describes one possible outcome.*

B. The Possible Impact of 12% Flat Tax and 20 pesos per day Food Subsidies on 2006 FIES Data

With the recommended twelve percent flat tax and 20 pesos food subsidy (that comes in the form of vouchers similar to the food stamps in the United States) for all adults ages 18 to 64, the individual expenses** and savings of the different income segments will become as follows:

Table 3: 12% Flat Tax and 20 pesos Food Subsidies applied to the 2006 FIES Average Income, Expenses and Savings
As can be seen above, with the flat tax and food subsidies, even the bottom thirty percent of income earners are now able to have some savings***

The resulting aggregate income would then be...

Table 4: 12% Flat Tax and 20 pesos per day Food Subsidies applied to the 2006 FIES Total Income, Expenses and Savings
...and the over-all situation**** in terms of savings improves for all segments of society (as represented by the increased number of coins in the diagram below).

Figure 3: 12% Flat Tax and 20 pesos per day Food Subsidies applied to the 2006 FIES Income and Savings
(Click on image to enlarge)
For the Upper Tier of Society, more savings***** means more funds that can be invested in housing, education or business activities.

C. Conclusion

From the above example, we can see that a combination of lowering the income tax to a flat rate of twelve percent and providing food subsidies of twenty pesos for each Filipino adult (18 to 64 years old) may (all other things remaining equal) result in a near doubling of the aggregate savings rate (809 Billion from the original 428 Billion Pesos aggregate savings).

Notes:
*Outcomes depend on factors such as the accuracy of FIES data (which i used as basis for the above), eventual tax collection efficiency as well as the propensity by which people may try to game the system to avoid paying their share.
**Expenses are reduced because taxes are included as part of household expenses. You can refer to the FIES Method of Computing Family Income and Expenses here.
***Given the assumption that the individual income earner does not choose to increase his/her expenses on other commodities and services.
****I am, of course, talking in terms of averages which means that within a given segment, there will still be those who are better and worse off. Uniformly better outcomes is highly improbable.
*****Included in this savings amount is the amount deducted for Social Security, Housing and Medical Insurance which i also proposed to be at a cumulative 12 percent of taxable income.

Towards A New Social Contract on Taxes, Wages & Safety Nets

2008-07-27T18:25:00.011+08:00

The recent blog entries* related to VAT and dole-outs have gotten me to thinking of a holistic package of recommendations related to both the Tax burden and Social Safety Nets.

I. Basic Principles

I believe that any such set of recommendations must be based on a set of principles by which we envision Philippine Society to operate under. The principles that i have identified (so far) are the following**:

A. Principles related to Safety Nets

A.1 No Excuse for Hunger. Given our abundance of resources, there is absolutely no reason why any Filipino (employed or unemployed) should go hungry in his own country. For starters, there is absolutely no excuse to have people resort to recycling garbage for food.***

A.2 Fair burden across sectors. In the interest of fairness and social cohesion (essential to building up social capital****), no segment of Philippine Society should be unduly burdened in sustaining the government and its social programs. In particular, the Middle Class has been feeling particularly besieged and consequently alienated. This is in no small part because they see that they are the only ones paying income taxes while the majority poor, do not.

A.3 Social Security before Taxes. A person's income should first be allocated to social security (i.e. retirement benefits, housing and medical insurance) before it is allocated to taxes. Here in Singapore, for example, the amount deducted for Social Security is higher than the amount deducted for income taxes.

B. Principles Related to Capability Building and Demand Generation

The foundation for industrial development is a healthy domestic base.

B.1 Obligation to Give-back. Every recipient of social welfare should have the responsibility to give back to Society by using his capabilities to contribute to social welfare and economic development.

B.2 Subsidies as Stimulus. In the interest of pump-priming the economy, Safety Nets should first be allocated to consumption. A study by the United State's Congressional Budget Office identified direct injections (such as unemployment or food stamps provisions) to the poor as having the biggest effect to propping up consumption which is important to avoiding a recession. In this sense, the much criticized katas ng VAT dole-outs are actually a step in the right direction in terms of its multiplier effect.

C. Principles Related to Development: Investment, Innovation and Technology

The key to economic development is to build up local capabilities to innovate and continuously improve on existing technologies.

C.1 Savings before Consumption. Tax incentives and disincentives should be structured to prioritize savings over consumption.

C.2 Culture of Entrepreneurship and not Dependence. Entrepreneurial activities should be encouraged and dependence of OFW remittances should be discouraged.

The following are the specific recommendations that are based on the above principles.

II. Specific Recommendations on Taxes, Social Security and Income Subsidies

1. Flat tax on income: For all salary and wage earners, impose a uniform income tax rate. The initial rate can be pegged at 12 percent.

Table 1: Existing***** versus New Income TaxesUpdate Oct-18-2008: Just to emphasize, Exemptions not applicable on New Tax Due
As shown on the above table, given this recommendation, any salary or wage earner who receives an annual taxable income of 70,000 pesos or above will receive a tax relief, while those receiving less will have additional tax burden. (Note that in the above, the subsidies for the lower income earners haven't been factored in. The effect of subsidies is shown in Table 2 below.)

2. Equal or bigger Social Security Contributions relative to Income Taxes. Similarly, impose a uniform social security contribution (includes SSS, Pag-Ibig, Medicare and/or GSIS) rate that is equal or higher than the income tax rate, in this case, the cumulative rate could also be pegged twelve percent. This deducted amount will then go into retirement, housing and medical insurance of the employee and/or wage earner's At the same time, the pool of savings can still be made available to extend credit to the contributors or to support the government's socialized housing and health maintenance programs.

The Employer's contributions could be pegged at half of the employee's i.e. six percent. (Additionally, if we want to roughly follow the Singapore model, the total contribution of both employer and employer can be capped at Ten Thousand pesos per month each.)

The benefit of the first two recommendations has to do with principles A.2 and A.3. A flat tax covering all income levels will mean that no segment of the salary and/or wage earning population would feel that they are unduly taking a disproportionate part of the burden and help eradicate the Paano Naman Kaming Mga Middle Class sense of victimhood.

3. Replace tax exemptions with subsidies for both employed and unemployed. The Fair Burden Principle (A.2) above means that the tax base should be widened****** to cover the entire working population. If left as it is, for the lower income groups, this would clash with the No Excuse for Hunger Principle (A.1). Therefore, a survival subsidy, in the form of food stamps, initially pegged at 20 pesos per day per adult (18 to 64 years old) should be provided. Table 2 below calculates the net relief across all the income brackets illustrated in Table 1.

Table 2: Net Tax Relief (Burden)Update Oct-18-2008: Just to emphasize, Exemptions not applicable on New Tax Due
The above table illustrates that the 20 pesos per day food stamp subsidy covers adults (18 to 64) of all income brackets, even those with zero income, i.e. the unemployed. This institutionalizes and systematizes the katas ng VAT and provides a basic layer of social safety net, one that addresses hunger to fulfill Principle A.1 while at the same time, helping sustain consumer demand that drives the economy (Principle B.2). This is also an improvement over tax exemptions on minimum wage earners because it also considers the welfare of the unemployed who outnumber the employed.

4. Eliminate the minimum wage.******* The minimum wage should be eliminated in order to give business enterprises the flexibility to compete in the world market (in support of Principle C.2). Since the problem is unemployment and chronic underemployment, the priority should be given to creating as many jobs as possible. By comparison, the task of increasing the wages of workers who are already employed is secondary. Besides, reducing unemployment is in the interest of labor because fewer people looking for jobs will ultimately mean a stronger bargaining position.

5. Retain VAT. This is in keeping with the principle of prioritizing savings over consumption (Principle C.1). Retaining VAT will also enable continued funding of food stamps (Principle A.1).

6. Tax OFW remittances. OFW Remittances should be included as part of income and taxed accordingly. This is in keeping with the principle of discouraging a culture of dependence (Principle C.2).

7. Implement a National ID. This National ID could be either the SSS/GSIS ID, the BIR's Tax Identification Number or a separate number altogether. Such an ID is needed to facilitate the distribution of subsidies as well as the collection of taxes and social security. To prevent abuse, the introduction of the National ID should be accompanied by increased safeguards on privacy.

III. Conclusion: A Foundation for Investment, Innovation and Technology Improvement

Each of the preceding recommendations will benefit certain segment of Society and impose a burden on another. It is therefore important to take a holistic approach in the spirit of give and take among the different sectors. Below is a visual summary of the complementary roles of Social Security Contributions and Taxes in achieving our objectives in the areas of Survival, Civilized Living, Capability Building and balancing Consumer Demand with Investment.

Figure 1: Taxes and Social Security Contributions as applied to Areas of Nation Building********
While we should not lose sight of the fact that our economic development ultimately depends on our home-grown ability to innovate by continuously improving existing as well as developing new technologies, not having to be preoccupied with matters of survival is an essential first step.

Notes:
*An initial formulation of my recommendations can be found in the comments section of this blog entry over at Manolo's. Blog entries on the VAT issue that i have read include:

On Oil Deregulation and E-VAT by Cocoy, a defense of Oil Deregulation and E-VAT.
Scrap VAT on on Ellen Tordesillas, Senator Mar Roxas' recommendation to scrap VAT on Petroleum products.
Will cutting taxes help the poor? By Cielito Habito, Former NEDA Secretary General Cielito Habito cautions against scrapping VAT.
obscenely oppressive, that’s VAT! by Angela Stuart-Santiago, an eloquent plea to remove the onerous burden of VAT.

**I'll update the list as and when i think of additional principles.
***Known as 'pagpag', a term i first heard from fellow blogger The EQualizer.
****I realize that, strictly speaking, social capital brings about social cohesion (and not the other way around) but i nevertheless believe that anything that increases social cohesion increases social capital as well.
***** Refer to the BIR Website for existing guidelines.
******See also Solita Monsod's criticism on the recent law granting tax exemptions on minimum wage earners. (Hat tip to Manolo.)
*******This does not mean that Labor Unions should be discouraged. On the contrary, strong Unions should be encouraged in order to have the workers' interests represented in a tripartite partnership between labor, management and government.
********Not all items shown on the diagram are discussed in this present blog entry. Manolo Quezon reintroduced the idea of Victory Gardens to mitigate the effects of the food crisis. I briefly described my version of a large scale implementation this concept in this comment.

Chisato Moritaka: Shiritagari

2008-07-20T13:15:00.001+08:00

In the Absence of Empathy or Foresight...

2008-07-19T12:22:00.001+08:00

...solving a problem is often a matter of getting the right group of people to feel the pain.

GK's Agenda

2008-07-16T22:45:00.001+08:00

Me : Gawad Kalinga is primarily a racket to win converts.
Tony Meloto: No it's not.
Carlos Palad: Yes, it is.

Western Music and Math

2008-07-15T21:51:00.001+08:00

In Seed Magazine, a mathematical explanation of how melody and harmony combine to make [Western*] music. Turns out that musicians have been doing geometry all along.

(Hat tip: 3Quarksdaily.)

Update Jan-31-2009: Gary Granada's exposition gives us a tangible example of this.

*The article explains that many forms of non-Western music have melody, but no harmony.

I Have A Dream...

2008-07-13T02:38:00.000+08:00

Found via Japundit.

Stop Sulpicio Lines

2008-07-04T02:04:00.000+08:00

I join my fellow bloggers in calling for:

1. Justice for the victims and their families.
2. Retribution against the business owners and management of Sulpicio.
3. Accountability for the failure of government agencies in its safety regulation, disaster prevention and relief efforts.

Black and White Movement Resumes Black Friday Silent Protests

2008-07-03T03:06:00.000+08:00

The Black and White Movement has announced that it is restarting its Black Friday Silent Protests.

"The Black and White Movement condemns both the callousness of our leaders, and the policy of deception in addressing our problems. To reawaken our people to these stark realities, we will resume our Black Friday Silent Protest actions on July 4, 2008.

We will gather every Friday at a pre-determined location at a specified time, all of us wearing black. There will be no placards or flags, no speeches, and no program. Our presence will be our message of protest. We will quietly disperse after 30 minutes.

This Friday, the designated time and place is the COMELEC Headquarters, Intramuros, Manila, at 5 PM. This is to dramatize where our problems all started – the cheating in the 2004 elections. With 3 commissioners still to be appointed by GMA, we may see the same transgressions being executed in 2010 due to a lack of qualified overseers."

It's time to stop moving on.

Good luck America!

2008-06-08T14:13:00.001+08:00

Kudos to Senator Hillary Clinton for graciously throwing her support behind Barack Obama. For a while, i thought she would be following the lead of another ambitious politician.

I hope the American people vote for the right person this time around for all our sakes.

Jun Lozada's Blog

2008-06-01T06:16:00.000+08:00

Kudos to Blogger's Kapihan for launching Jun Lozada's blog. It's not everyday that a genuine Filipino hero joins the ranks of Filipino bloggers.

Interview with Captain Faeldon (Part 4 of 4)

2008-05-29T08:02:00.002+08:00

Captain Faeldon emphasizes the need not to be career-oriented:

"...when you think of your career as your number one consideration...everything you do is in preparation for a next promotion, for a higher achievement, and that compromises public service..."

He says that this is the problem with other soldiers i.e. their being too career oriented.

Again, he emphasizes that he will never run for any electoral positon and will never accept any appointive position.

Captain Faeldon says that the most difficult thing he has done is to set his mind to the the worst case scenario...

"Any proponent of ideas [that they think] could eventually survive, and remove them [from their comfort zone]...they will not allow that to happen"

...and says that if he dies fighting and holding on to his beliefs, then he'll be satisfied.

Interview with Captain Faeldon (Part 3 of 4)

2008-05-29T07:17:00.001+08:00

In this segment, Capt. Faeldon emphasizes that a political leader is supposed to understand that, "you are supposed to serve [the public]...you have no power over them, you are their servant".

In the most cryptic part of the interview (at least to me), Faeldon explains that restiveness in the military will be there as long as there are irregularities. However he observes as well that there is growing mistrust among the soldiers that they are just being used to further the personal ambitions of certain people which is why they do not participate "in order to play safe".

Faeldon also says that Gloria Arroyo has no authority to pardon him because she is not a legitimate President.

On the question of whether or not the Filipino people are ready for change, he gives what i think is the best piece of personal advice in this interview...

"...be aware of what you're thinking because it defines you as a person and it guides your action[s], so when you say that 'the people are not ready for change, the people are not ready to change values, the people are not ready to change their character,' that defines your actions"

Interview with Captain Faeldon (Part 2 of 4)

2008-05-29T06:48:00.001+08:00

Faeldon states that another principle of their group is not to engage in partisan politics. (This included refusing to endorse his brother during the elections in 2004.) On the idea of National Consciousness, he emphasizes its required scope...

"...national consciousness cannot be achieved without majority of the people in a certain society...in a nation...adheres to it...hindi puwede iyong magbuo ka lang ng isang milyon sa Metro Manila...then try to make a dent sa pambansa..."

...and clarifies its meaning as:

"...a situation where majority of the Filipino people have agreed united behind one idea and aspiration... [which represents their hope in life]..."

Capt. Faeldon also explains the failure of the post-EDSA (1986) leadership to capitalize on the people's unity at that time to take "strong positions on economic and political policies".

Interview with Captain Faeldon (Part 1 of 4)

2008-05-29T06:40:00.001+08:00

Captain Faeldon explains the origin of Pilipino.org, and the need for National Consciousness which requires personal sacrifice in the "long haul activity for this nation". He also rejects armed uprising and believes that the means to attain his vision is through democracy and non-violence.

Crispin Beltran

2008-05-21T01:45:00.000+08:00

"What happened — his being on the roof, a 75-year old man with a hammer, doing household work and making sure his home and family were safe from the rains — is (was?) so like Ka Bel. He lived and worked from day to day always with meaningful intent, with purpose, with the aim to protect and defend those he cared for and loved the most. And that purpose extended (oh how it it did reach outward and forward like an undeniable force of nature!) beyond his family — he embraced the working class, the Filipino people, and even the poor and oppressed of other nations." - From a tribute by Ina Silverio

Truly an exemplary human being and a rare breed of Congressman. Read the whole thing over at Ellen's blog.

The Austronesian Migration: Questions and Links

2008-05-18T20:52:00.011+08:00

My friend Melvin, who is also interested in the migrations of peoples through history has some thought-provoking questions on this subject, particularly as it relates to the Austronesian migration to the Philippines, the rest of Southeast Asia and beyond:

Why are Kapampangan speakers completely surrounded by Tagalog speakers (a language that's not really similar to it)?
How did Tagalog -- a Cebuano cousin -- become entrenched in the regions around Laguna de Bay and Taal Lake, instead of languages that developed on Luzon island?
How is it that peninsular Malaysia is part of the Austronesian language region (that originated in Taiwan), when migrations from the Indian subcontinent or from southern China seems easier?
Did volcanic eruptions completely wipe out the original inhabitants of the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia? Did this event, in turn, facilitate the migration of Austronesian peoples?
What led the Austronesians to become master seafarers that populated the Pacific islands and went as far as Madagascar? Was there some important natural event?
[Added May-27-2008] Do you know how related Mon-Khmers are to Austronesians? (Cambodians don't really look that much different from Malays).

Any answers (or links) to the above would be appreciated.

Melvin has also pointed to a useful website, The Austronesian Basic Vocabulary Database**.

Update May-21-2008: In the comments section, Anonymous has provided some information relevant to Questions #1 to #3 above.

Specific to Question #1 and #2, i.e. the encirclement of Kapampangans by the Tagalogs, Anonymous explains:

"Kapampangans used to populate the areas around Tondo, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, and Bataan. At the arrival of the conquistas there were only around 70,000 Tagalogs and 70,000 Kapampangans, and the areas of Pampanga and Katagalugan were mostly covered in forest. So the areas which are now populated with Tagalogs have just been deforested and populated in the past 150 years. The encroachment of Tagalogs is a recent phenomena (due to Tagalog speaking people's population boom). The policy of Filipino (Tagalog) as national language has converted a lot of native Kapampangan speakers as well.

Tagalogs were sent by Bornean Datus to represent Borneo's trade interests with mainland Chinese merchants in the all important port of Manila. In the beginning, Laguna and Batangas was their heartland, because that's as far as they can push (otherwise they'd meet the bolos of Kapampangan tribes if they pushed harder into Manila!) as Kapampangans had control of the Manila (Rajah Soliman, Lakan Dula and Matanda were Kapampangan). Of course, it should be remembered that Tagalogs and Kapampangans had friendly relations due to diplomacy by familial intermarriages of the aristocracy."

I take the above to mean that the encroachment of Tagalogs in what used to be the domain of the Kapampangans is a consequence of the Pax-Hispanica imposed by the Spanish colonizers which meant that previous tribal boundaries were no longer barriers to free movement.

Regarding Question #3, i.e. the presence of Austronesians in Malaysia, Anonymous offered the following hypothesis:

"Eden in the East, the Drowned Continent of Southeast Asia by Stephen Oppenheimer posits that Austronesians had their native homeland in Sundaland-which is located in the South China Sea area bordered by Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia. The melting of ice after the last ice age drowned the continent, and pushed its people out of Sundaland into the Philippines, Oceania, even as far as Madagascar."

This scenario is possible as seen from the vast areas of Sundaland submerged at the end of the last Ice Age as shown in the before and after pictures below.***

Click on image to enlarge
According to the Genographic Project, Y-DNA marker Haplogroup O1a-M119 associated with the Austronesians emerged 30,000 years ago so the timescales do match. So if Ice Age Sundaland was inhabited by the Austronesians, this would explain their continued presence in the Malay Peninsula. On the other hand, the as per the Wikipedia entry on the Austronesian Languages, the greatest linquistic and genetic diversity is found in Taiwan which supports the competing claim that the Austronesian language originated in that island. These conflicting facts still need to be reconciled to arrive at a coherent historical narrative.

You can read the entirety of Anonymous' explanation in the comments section.

Update May-23-2008: Anonymous has pointed to a blog by Paul K. Manansala with fascinating entries on the Austronesians (with emphasis on the Nusantao). His blog also gives a more detailed account of the Sundaland flooding events, of which there were 3 major episodes.

In one of his blog entries on the topic, Manansala gives an important warning...

"...we should not assume anything about the "race" of the Austronesian speakers, or for that matter the "Melanesians" back in the Neolithic period when these expansions occurred.

Austronesian speakers in the Pacific -- Micronesians, Melanesians and Polynesians -- for example, all have significant percentages of Y chromosome C2 haplogroup. In some Polynesian areas, C2 is the dominant haplotype. However, C2 has not been found in Taiwan so far."

The above advice is especially relevant to my previous blog entry on the Y-DNA Human Family Tree where i use mnemonic shortcuts to denote certain Haplogroups. Each linguistic group may have individuals predominantly belonging to one Haplogroup but clearly the categories of language and genetic genealogy can and do overlap.

In the same blog entry, Manansala also differentiates between the 'Austronesian' and the 'Malayo-Polynesian' expansions.

Update May-27-2008: Related to Question #4 above, Melvin clarifies his question...

"About the volcanic eruption-related questions, I was actually wondering whether later eruptions kept SE Asia sparsely populated, since Sumatra and Java are littered with volcanoes. On the same vein, I also wonder whether Banahaw and Taal had helped ensure that a Visayan language (Tagalog) and not a Kapampangan/Panggalatoc relative take root in the Batangas/Quezon region."

On the Austronesian origins of the Thai language, Melvin shares what he read:

"Thai originated in Taiwan as an Austronesian language but has evolved into a totally different language. Unlike other Austronesian languages that took on the seas, Thai's route was through mainland southern China. The Thais arrived in Thailand during the Song dynasty, where they displaced the Khmer Empire that once ruled the area."

I have also added his Question #6 on the relationship of the Mon-Khmer with the Austronesians.

Over in his blog, Paul K. Manansala points to new research that challenges the 'Out of Taiwan' agriculture-driven origin of the Austronesian people and supports the Sundaland flooding triggered dispersal model.

*Melvin read an article last year that mentioned about a volcanic event that wiped out the population of southern India.
**Greenhill, S. J., Blust. R, & Gray, R.D. (2003-2008) The Austronesian Basic Vocabulary Database. http://language.psy.auckland.ac.nz/austronesian
***Source of Images: The Genographic Project's Atlas of the Human Journey
****Melvin read that Cambodians settled in Southeast Asia quite recently (around 3,000 years ago) and have migrated from somewhere near northern India.

Melee - Built To Last

2008-05-08T02:40:00.001+08:00

Jonas Burgos and the 'Middle Class Way of Living'

2008-04-28T02:14:00.003+08:00

It's been one year since Jonas Burgos was abducted from a Mall in broad daylight. I for one, don't believe that this despicable act can just be blamed on a few bad elements in the military (or even the government). It takes a certain kind of Society to make this possible, one that is populated with individuals who possess a mindset that is on full display in this fortright (but anonymous) comment over at Expectorants:

"It's a simple question of the lesser evil. Who are the aggressive power brokers/stakeholders in the Philippines ba? Military, CPP/NPA, oligarchs.

Pick one. How you might say? Well, let's stop picking on Arroyo for one and start supporting her. She's killing the commies and bribing the soldiers. So stop those middle-class rallies against GMA and support the parliamentary referendum to prolong her and her party's rule.

If the communists or military sweep to power tomorrow and be a little less corrupt than the oligarchs, I would have to agree that there would be an exponential improvement in the lives of the hungry and destitute.

But if helping a lot of poor means that the new military or communist overlords would take away the accumulated wealth of the present rich, then I'm afraid I would have to side with the evil oligarchs.

As much as I can sympathize with the predicament of the poor, I wouldn't allow a power shift that would uplift their standard of living while at the same time lower mine, that is, my middle class way of living.

It may sound selfish, but I've thought this through. I don't want to spend the rest of my life "starting over" to accumulate again the real estate, big savings account, stocks, and bonds from which my I derive my (rent, interest, dividends, coupons) income from. At the moment, I don't work, but I live like semi-royalty because of that accumulated wealth. I'm afraid if commies or military take over then they'll tax me to the hilt or be forced to go overseas where I'll become a common tao (my wealth would be worth less if liquidated, converted to foreign currency, and moved overseas)."

The banality of evil, alive and well in 21^st Century Philippines.

Human Family Tree: Paternal Side (Y-DNA)

2008-04-23T02:40:00.014+08:00

Using the information found on the Genographic Project website's Atlas of Human Journey, i have drawn a Family Tree based on the Y-DNA Haplogroup classifications:

Figure 1: Human Family Tree Y-DNA
Click on image to enlarge
I encourage you to browse the image above as it has some interesting relationships.

Update April-25-2008: Based on the Family Tree above, i have measured the degree of separation of each Haplogroup to every other Haplogroup by working out a route via the nearest common ancestor which i then tabulated below.

Table 1: Degree of Separation between Haplogroups
Click on image to enlarge
For example, as shown below, the degree of separation between Haplogroup O3.M122 (i.e. a marker associated with China's first rice farmers who spread throughout China and Southeast Asia) and Haplogroup O1A.M119 (i.e. associated with the Austronesians, a linguistic group that includes present day Filipinos) is '2'. Both the Austronesians and China's first rice farmers share a common immediate ancestor i.e. Haplogroup O.M175 (i.e. the 'East Asian Clan').

Example 1: China's First Rice Farmers and the Austronesians
By way of comparison, the degree of separation between Haplogroup O3.M122 (i.e. China's first rice farmers) and Haplogroup C3.M217 (i.e. the Mongols with Genghis Khan's Marker) is farther with a value of '6'. In this case, we need to go back a few steps further up the family tree to find their common ancestor Haplogroup M168 (i.e. the 'Eurasian Adam').

Example 2: China's First Rice Farmers and the Mongols
This can be contrasted with the much smaller degree of separation between Haplogroup C3.M217 (i.e. the Mongols or Genghis Khan's Marker) and Haplogroup C.M130 (i.e. the 'Coastal Clan' from where the Australian Aborigines came from) which is '1'. This is because Haplogroup C3.M217 is a direct descendant of C.M130.

Example 3: The Mongols and the Australian Aborigines
It is also interesting to observe that the Coastal Clan Haplogroup C.M130, which includes the Australian Aborigines is more closely related to Haplogroup I.M170, known to be the ancestors of the Vikings...

Example 4: The Australian Aborigines and the Vikings
...than Haplogroup I.M170 is to the Cro-Magnon Haplogroup R1B.M343 to which many of today's Western Europeans belong.

Example 5: The Vikings and the Cro-Magnon
It is clear from the preceding examples that the previously established major racial categories (e.g. Caucasoid, Negroid, Mongoloid, and Australoid) are no longer scientifically valid.

Update April-28-2008: At the comments section, do check out a critique of the Genographic website's Haplogroup descriptions, which according to the commenter, is less accurate than the equivalent entry found in Wikipedia.

Ballistic Re-entry

2008-04-20T00:34:00.000+08:00

South Korean Astronaut Yi So-yeon
Source: Xinhua
The ride back was rougher than usual but South Korea's first astronaut made it down safely. Congratulations! May you be the first among many.

Korean Cylon Number Eight
Source:Mgroves.com

What Gödel Proved

2008-04-16T01:15:00.005+08:00

As explained by Nagel and Newman in their classic introduction to Kurt Gödel's landmark Incompleteness Theorem,

"...given any consistent set of arithmetical axioms, there are true arithmetical statements that cannot be derived from the set."

A Mathematical System is based on a limited set of axioms, i.e. assertions or statements that are assumed to be true without the need for any proof.

Figure 1: Axioms as Self-evident Truths
Using the internal rules of the Mathematical System, these axioms can then be used as basis to determine whether other assertions within such a system are true or false. Assertions that are proven to be true are accorded the status of Theorems.

Figure 2: Proving Assertions
These theorems can in turn be used (together with axioms or other theorems) to prove or disprove other assertions via the same method of Deductive Reasoning. One would therefore expect that such an ongoing process of generating assertions and proving them would result in a mathematical system that is able to extend itself by uncovering or constructing more mathematical truths while, at the same time, avoiding false assertions that would allow inconsistency(-ies) to creep into the System. Gödel found out that this is not the case.

Figure 3: Consistent and Complete Mathematical System
(Click on image to enlarge)
What Gödel proved in 1931 was that avoiding inconsistency within the system comes at the expense of completeness, i.e. the system's characteristic of being self-contained (in other words, 'complete in itself'). In a mathematical system based on axioms, there will always be assertions that are true, but whose truth cannot be proven from within the system on the basis of its axioms (or by way of the system's theorems). The truth of these assertions can be determined from outside the system [aka the 'Environment'], but not from within.

Figure 4: Consistent but Incomplete Mathematical System
(Click on image to enlarge)
Gödel's Incompleteness Theorem has a number of implications that have been explored at length, but i believe that one of the most significant, as explained by Douglas Hofstadter* is that:

"...provability is a weaker notion than truth** no matter what axiomatic system is involved."

A timely reminder to those who count on a given system to always come up with evidence to establish truth. There are situations when lack of evidence does not negate the truth of an assertion. Sometimes, you just have to step outside the system to see that this is indeed the case.

Update April-16-2008: Here's an excellent discussion on Douglas Hofstadter's book Gödel, Escher, Bach (also known by its shortname GEB).

Update April-25-2008: It is also important to emphasize what Gödel does not prove, i.e. Gödel does not prove the romantic and anti-rationalist notion that "There are true things which cannot be proved".

*in his book Gödel, Escher, Bach: an Eternal Golden Braid
**Emphasis mine.

In a carefully worded statement...

2008-04-15T12:19:00.000+08:00

...from Tom Tolibas, Senator Miriam-Defensor Santiago’s media relations officer:

"She’s OK now. Her CT [computed tomography] scan showed no additional injuries. She’s home now recovering."

Matter and Energy: Ordinary and Dark

2008-04-01T00:23:00.007+08:00

I just finished reading Lisa Randall's book Warped Passages, which i highly recommend especially now that the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), where many of the theories she discusses in the book will be tested, is about to start operating.

While Randall's main focus is on theories involving extra-dimensions, she explains a lot of related topics along the way, and for me, one of the most striking details she reveals has to do with the varieties and relative proportions of matter and energy in the Universe. Randall explains...

"Dark Matter is the nonluminous matter that pervades the universe and has been discovered through its gravitational influence. Even though about one-quarter (25%) of the energy in the universe* is stored in dark matter, we still don't know what it is...

...The universe contains dark energy** (energy not carried by any matter), that constitutes seventy percent (70%) of the total energy of the universe...No theory [is able to] explain dark energy."

By contrast, ordinary matter from which we are made of makes up the remaining five percent (5%).

Update April-20-2008: Via 3Quarksdaily, an experiment that claims to detect Dark Matter in the form of Weakly Interacting Massive Particles (WIMPs).

Also, here's the web page for NASA's Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) that i mentioned in the comments section. It has further interesting information including this Timeline of the Universe.

Click on image to enlarge
In the above diagram, the acceleration of the Universe's expansion due to Dark Energy is noticeable.

Update April-25-2008: Over at Cosmic Variance, blogger-physicist Sean Carroll explains that the famous equation e=mc² does not apply in the case of Dark Energy.

"Interestingly, the dark energy that makes up 70% of the energy of the universe doesn’t really have “mass” at all, since it’s not made up of objects (such as particles) that can have a rest frame — it’s a smooth field filling space."

*Matter and energy is intergchangeable via e=mc².
**This mysterious Dark Energy is also known as Vacuum Energy and was first proposed by Einstein as the Cosmological Constant and more recently theorized as a new substance called Quintessence. Its presence is inferred by the observation that the expansion of the universe seems to be accelerating.

GDP Growth and Missing Energy

2008-03-22T18:41:00.015+08:00

Reacting to my observation on the negative correlation between Oil Imports and GDP per capita, commenter UPn Student suggested that:

"you should chart out BTU-consumption versus GDP, not oil-importation versus GDP."

I think that suggestion made sense so i did some research. I divided the Final Energy Consumption* figures in my preceding post by the applicable population for a given year and mapped the result to GDP per capita** as follows:

Figure 1: GDP per capita and Energy Consumption per Capita
Click on image to enlarge
I then computed the correlation coefficients between per capita GDP and Energy Consumption during the three periods of expansion under Cory, FVR and GMA as well as the two periods of contraction that are sandwiched in between as shown in the diagram below.

Figure 2: Correlation Coefficients: GDP per Capita and Energy Consumption per Capita
Click on image to enlarge
For the periods of GDP expansion (1986 to 1989, 1993 to 1997 and 2002 to 2005), the above show similar patterns of correlation between per capita GDP and Energy Consumption as my previous computation which was based on Oil Imports. (As can be seen, for the three periods of expansion, the values of the correlation coefficients are practically identical.)

The first two post-EDSA expansions under Cory and FVR shows the expected positive correlation between per capita GDP and per capita Energy Consumption. By contrast, the current expansion under Gloria Arroyo shows a negative correlation. Even after factoring in the contributions of Malampaya's Natural Gas starting in 2002, the strangeness remains.

The next step would be to identify the 'missing' component and match that to the sector of the economy that seems to be consuming less energy than it normally does. Among the three components of Final Energy Consumption for the period 2002 to 2005, both Coal and Electricity has shown a positive correlation. In contrast, Petroleum has shown an almost perfect negative correlation:

Energy Source	Correlation Coefficient
Coal	+0.99
Petroleum	- 0.99
Electricity	+0.86

Table 1: Correlation Coefficients: GDP per Capita and Energy Consumption by Source (2002 to 2005)
So the missing energy turns out to still be Petroleum (which is derived from Crude Oil).

Which sector of the economy then has been consuming less and less Petroleum per capita as per capita GDP increases? Of the three broad categories of power consuming sectors of the Philippine Economy, i.e. Industry***, Transport**** and Others***** (which includes the Residential and Commercial Sectors), all have shown negative correlations when it comes to Petroleum consumption and GDP per Capita:

Economic Sector	Correlation Coefficient
Industry	- 0.84
Transport	- 0.88
Others	- 1.00

Table 2: Correlation Coefficients: GDP per Capita and Petroleum Consumption by Economic Sector (2002 to 2005)
It may again be argued that Petroleum is not the only source of energy of the above sectors so we need to consider the possibility of substitution of Petroleum by other sources (e.g. Electricity and Coal). If we take into account all those other sources of energy (i.e. Electricity and Coal) used by these sectors into the computation of the Correlation Coefficient, we get the following results:

Economic Sector	Correlation Coefficient
Industry	+ 0.83
Transport	- 0.88
Others	- 0.62

Table 3: Correlation Coefficients: GDP per Capita and Energy Consumption by Economic Sector (2002 to 2005)
The above shows that for the Industry Sector, substitution of Petroleum by other sources may offer a plausible explanation for the reduction in its usage. However, for the remaining sectors such as Transport and Others (includes Commercial and Residential), the question of missing energy is still unresolved. The alternative explanations i can think of are the following:

We have become more efficient in consuming energy to the extent that energy consumed per person is actually decreasing even as incomes are increasing. This, however, is highly unlikely as it goes against the pattern of increasing energy consumption that goes with increasing incomes.
Energy consumption is being understated. It may be that the smuggled oil is not being accounted for in the Energy Balance Tables.
GDP growth has been overstated and corresponding per capita GDP has not really increased as much as has been reported. This is more consistent with the results of the 2003 to 2006 Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES).

I would welcome inputs and alternative explanations from the readers.

Update 7:00pm: In the comments section, Gabby asks how i determined whether a given sector substitutes between energy sources. For each sector, i computed the correlation coefficient using Petroleum Consumption (in the green cells) and did the same with Total Energy Consumption (in the yellow cells) as follows:

Year	Industry Sector
Year	Petroleum	Coal	Electricity	Total
2002	2357	622	1172	4151
2003	2088	770	1299	4157
2004	2186	1055	1291	4532
2005	2054	1208	1368	4630
Correlation Coefficient	-0.84			+0.83

Table 4: Final Energy Consumption (in ktoe)
Industry Sector (2002 to 2005)
As seen above, with Petroleum alone, the Correlation Coefficient was negative (at -0.84) but if we include other energy sources i.e. Coal and Electricity, the value turns positive (at +0.83). This means that the increase in the alternative Energy Sources more than compensated for the relative decrease in Petroleum. The same cannot be seen for the rest of the sectors as shown in the following tables where the coefficients have remained in negative territory:

Year	Transport Sector
Year	Petroleum	Electricity	Total
2002	8424	5	8429
2003	8673	5	8678
2004	8662	6	8668
2005	8444	8	8452
Correlation Coefficient	-0.88		-0.88

Table 5: Final Energy Consumption (in ktoe)
Transport Sector (2002 to 2005)

Year	Others Sector
Year	Petroleum	Electricity	Total
2002	2308	2145	4453
2003	2269	2363	4632
2004	2173	2494	4667
2005	2128	2540	4668
Correlation Coefficient	-1.00		-0.62

Table 6: Final Energy Consumption (in ktoe)
Others Sector (2002 to 2005)

Update Nov-16-2008: Economist-blogger Tyler Cowen of Marginalrevolution, takes a similar over-all approach to the above and applies it to China. He speculates that the year-on-year change in generated electrical power in China for the month of October may be a more reliable indicator than government-reported GDP statistics.

Update Jan-27-2009: In response to GabbyD's query in the comments section, here is the relative share of the Transportation Sector to total GDP (1990 to 2008).

Year	Transportation & Communications Sector GDP	Total GDP	Relative Share
1990	41,108	720,690	5.7%
1991	41,291	716,522	5.8%
1992	41,870	718,941	5.8%
1993	42,941	734,156	5.8%
1994	44,764	766,368	5.8%
1995	47,366	802,866	5.9%
1995	47,366	802,866	5.9%
1995	47,366	802,866	5.9%
1995	47,366	802,866	5.9%
1995	47,366	802,866	5.9%
1996	50,878	849,121	6.0%
1997	55,067	893,151	6.2%
1998	58,640	888,000	6.6%
1999	61,726	918,160	6.7%
2000	68,174	972,960	7.0%
2001	74,181	990,042	7.5%
2002	80,805	1,034,093	7.8%
2003	87,747	1,085,071	8.1%
2004	97,605	1,154,296	8.5%
2005	104,766	1,211,452	8.6%
2006	111,412	1,276,873	8.7%
2007	256,877	1,368,740	18.8%
2008	90,590	1,035,303	8.8%

Table 7:Relative Share of Transportation & Communications Sector to GDP (1990 to 2008)******

*Source: APEC Energy Database
**Source: NSCB for 1994 to 2006 and Virtual Philippines, Biz Pack, Statistics - GDP and Economic Indicators for 1986 to 1993.
***Industry Sector includes Iron and Steel, Chemical (incl. Petro-Chemical), Non Ferrous Metals, Non Metallic Mineral Products, Transportation Equipment, Machinery, Mining and Quarrying, Food, Beverages and Tobacco, Pulp, Paper and Printing, Wood and Wood Products, Construction, Textiles and Leather.
****Transport Sector includes International Civil Aviation, Domestic Air Transport, Road, Rail, Inland Waterways, Pipeline Transport.
*****Others Sector includes Commerce and Public Services, Residential, Agriculture and Fishing.
******Source: NEDA

GDP per Capita and Energy Consumption

2008-03-17T04:45:00.010+08:00

Malampaya Project
In the preceding post, i pointed out the unusual negative correlation between GDP per capita and oil imports during the present growth episode (2001 to 2006). In the comments , fellow blogger Jon Limjap brought up the possibility that this may be due to the increased reliance on Natural Gas leading to a reduction in oil imports. The following chart shows the amount of energy consumed (in kilotons of oil equivalent or 'ktoe') according to power source*:

Figure 1: Final Consumption by Energy Source
Click on image to enlarge
One thing immediately noticeable is the sudden appearance starting in Year 2003 of 'Others'. (Nope, this is not because of Natural Gas from Malampaya.) The bulk of this category consists of biomass in the form of Fuel Wood & Woodwaste which accounts for over 80% of the total with the remainder made up of Bagasse, Charcoal and 'Other Biomass'. As explained in the APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook (2006):

In 2002, the Philippines’ residential energy consumption was dominated by biomass (from rice and coconut residues, and wood waste) at 58 percent. However due to the expanded access to electricity and the availability of commercial fuels, the share of biomass in total residential energy demand is projected to decrease from 58 percent in 2002 to 28 percent in 2030. Consequently, limited growth in biomass is expected at a modest rate of 0.2 percent due to the continued use in rural areas as a fuel for cooking.

Clearly, biomass as a source of fuel has already been in use even before 2002, although not accounted for in the Energy Balance Tables prior to that year. For consistency of comparisons, i will therefore disregard this component from the analysis and focus on Coal, Petroleum and Electricity and redraw the above chart as follows:

Figure 2: Final Consumption by Energy Source
(Coal, Petroleum & Electricity)
Click on image to enlarge
Natural Gas (along with Crude Oil, Geothermal, Hydroelectric and others) is used as an input to generate Electricity so any increase in contribution will be reflected in this component. However, it is readily apparent that, as a source of power, Electricity still constitutes a minority and is dwarfed by Petroleum. (The portion of Crude Oil that is used as input to Electricity is not reflected under Petroleum but is incorporated as part of Electricity. This prevents any double counting.)

The relative contributions of the various inputs to Electricity are shown in the diagram below.

Figure 3: Inputs to Electricity
Click on image to enlarge
So the answer to Jon's question above is that, as far as electricity is concerned, Natural Gas started contributing significantly to electricity generation in 2002 and along with coal has indeed replaced petroleum as an input to Electricity. However, it is also clear from the above that Electricity remains a small part of the Country's overall Energy Consumption. So the question remains on whether Energy Consumption has kept pace with GDP per capita growth. This would be the subject of my next blog entry.

*Source: APEC Energy Database

GDP Per Capita and Oil Imports: Strong, Weak and Strange Correlations

2008-03-10T02:13:00.003+08:00

In his Manila Standard column, Peter Wallace pointed to the disconnect between GDP growth and oil imports:

"Imports were 6.6 percent less in 2007 than they were in 2006. Now in a healthy, growing economy that’s a most unlikely event. Within that oil imports fell 5.6 percent. Now that’s just impossible." [emphasis mine] "You can have some slowing if there’s a shift to alternative fuels, but in 2007 there wasn’t to any significant degree. Oil imports should be growing close to GDP growth, a bit slower but close, and not showing a contradicting trend as it did in 2007. So you’re left with only one logical alternative: smuggling increased substantially."

I share Wallace's misgivings because common sense leads me to believe that higher income leads to higher energy consumption and hence the need for more oil imports. Over at Manolo's however, fellow commenter Ca T questions the existence of such a correlation and she asks:

"...with regards correlation of oil imports to GDP growth, is there a study which shows there is high correlation? then what is the correlation coefficient..." - The Ca T, March 6th, 2008 at 3:27 am

I haven't come across such a study so i had to do my own research. First, i had to obtain data on the volume of crude oil imports. The chart below shows the volume of crude oil imports (in thousands of barrels) from 1986 to 2006.*

click on image to enlarge
I then divided the above by the applicable population for a given year and mapped the result to GDP per capita** as follows:

click on image to enlarge
The resulting correlation coefficient for the entire 21 year period (1986 to 2006) turns out to be weakly negative with a value of -0.35 (see top portion of following diagram). This means that a rising per capita GDP results in a lower volume of imports over time which is contrary to Wallace's claim as quoted above. This is quite different from the expected relationship and is different as well from the relationships found in the United States that shows a strong positive correlation between gdp per capita and oil consumption (estimated at +0.68).

A closer look at the data reveals a sharp difference in the relationship before and after 1997 (see bottom portion of above diagram). From 1986 to 1997, there is a strong positive correlation (at +0.76) between per capita GDP and oil imports similar to the one observed in the United States. Starting 1998 until 2006, however, the relationship becomes strongly negative (at -0.94). What accounts for this sudden reversal in the correlation after 1997? A further breakdown into periods of expansion and contraction sheds light on the anomaly. The diagram below shows the correlation coefficients between per capita GDP and oil imports during the three periods of expansion under Cory, FVR and GMA as well as the two periods of contraction that are sandwiched in between.

click on image to enlarge
As shown above, the periods of expansion during Cory and FVR's terms showed a strong positive correlation (+0.85 and +0.80 respectively) between per capita GDP and oil imports. Gloria Arroyo's expansion by contrast exhibits a strong negative correlation (at -0.87) between per capita GDP and oil imports. During periods of contraction, the earlier one (in the aftermath of Gringo's coup attempts and during the Power Crisis) shows a weak negative correlation (at -0.21) while the one during the Asian Financial crisis shows a strong negative correlation (at -0.92).

click on image to enlarge
The per year breakdown above explains the strength of the correlations. Starting 1997, the behavior has been almost completely dominated by an increase in GDP being accompanied by a decrease in oil imports. This has resulted in a situation where the high water mark in per capita GDP level during 2006 exists side by side with a per capita oil imports falling below the 1987 level. Strange (not to mention fishy).

*Source: Virtual Philippines Biz Pack, Statistics - Energy and Water Resources for 1986 to 2001 and NSCB for 2001 to 2006.
**Source: NSCB for 1994 to 2006 and Virtual Philippines, Biz Pack, Statistics - GDP and Economic Indicators for 1986 to 1993.

Gloria Macapagal Arroyo: Resign!

2008-02-29T00:01:00.003+08:00

For violating Article VII Section 20 of the Philippine Constitution which provides:

"The President may contract or guarantee foreign loans on behalf of the Republic of the Philippines with the prior concurrence of the Monetary Board, and subject to such limitations as may be provided by law. The Monetary Board shall, within thirty days from the end of every quarter of the calendar year, submit to the Congress a complete report of its decision on applications for loans to be contracted or guaranteed by the Government or government-owned and controlled corporations which would have the effect of increasing the foreign debt, and containing other matters as may be provided by law."

The Monetary Board was not consulted and much less its approval asked.

(Thanks to Commenter MVJ for the heads up.)

Invitation: Interfaith Prayer Rally

2008-02-28T02:25:00.001+08:00

From the Black and White Movement:

HUWAG MATAKOT HANAPIN ANG KATOTOHANAN!

Tinatawagan ang publiko na lumahok sa malawakang INTERFAITH PRAYER RALLY na gaganapin sa Biyernes, ika-29 ng Pebrero, 4:30 p.m. - 8 p.m sa kanto ng Ayala Ave. at Paseo de Roxas, Makati.

Alinsunod ito sa panawagan ng CBCP at mga relihiyoso na magkaisa sa puspusang paghahanap sa katotohanan sa likod ng ma-anomalyang ZTE broadband deal at labanan ang katiwalian sa gobyerno.

Huwag tayo magpapaloko at magpapatakot sa mga kumakalat na balitang magkakagulo sa araw ng rally. Ang mga balitang ito ay gawa-gawa ng mga nais takpan ang katotohanan.

MAGKAISA TAYO SA PAGLALAKBAY SA LANDAS NG KATOTOHANAN TUNGO SA PAGBABAGO! SUMALI SA PRAYER RALLY SA MAKATI SA BIYERNES!

Update Feb-28-2008: Black and White Movement, together with Hyatt 10/La Salle 60, MBC, MAP, Manindigan, and other professional and church groups will assemble at the AIM (Paseo de Roxas) Parking lot at 3:00 PM.

Gloria Resign!

2008-02-25T00:53:00.002+08:00

Randy David summarizes the damage that Gloria Macapagal Arroyo has done to our institutions.

"...it would be a mistake to think this is just about corruption. This is, more importantly, about the long-term damage to a nation’s social institutions.

The damage to government institutions has been the most extensive. Far from being a neutral arbiter of disputes and a source of normative stability, the justice system has become a weapon to intimidate those who stand up to power. Far from being a pillar of public security, the military and the police have become the private army of a gangster regime. Instead of serving as an objective referee in electoral contests, the Commission on Elections has become a haven for fixers who deliver fictitious votes to the moneyed and the powerful. Instead of serving as the steady backbone of public service through successive changes in administration, the government bureaucracy has been turned into a halfway house for political lackeys, misfits and the corrupt. Instead of serving as a check on presidential power, the House of Representatives has become its hired cheering squad.

The erosion of these institutions, no doubt, has been going on for a long time. But their destruction in the last seven years under Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s presidency has been the most comprehensive since 1986..."

Thanks to Kabayan for spearheading the blogswarm. If people keep up the pressure, I bet she'll be looking over her shoulders more often.

Invitation: EDSA 1 Mass at Baclaran 25 February

2008-02-24T00:29:00.001+08:00

From the Black and White Movement:

TRUTH IS OUR PERPETUAL HELP

The Black & White Movement invites everyone to a special Mass in commemoration of the 22nd anniversary of the EDSA 1 People Power Revolution at the Shrine of Our Mother of Perpetual Help, Baclaran, Paranaque, on Monday, 25 February, 3:00 p.m.

We will be joined by former President Corazon Aquino, ZTE-NBN Deal truth teller Jun Lozada and family.

We look forward to seeing you, your family, and friends at this celebration of our nation's gift to the world – People Power.

The Truth is our Perpetual Help.

SA TOTOO TAYO!

Chisato Moritaka: 今度私どこか連れていって下さいよ and 風に吹かれて

2008-02-23T15:08:00.002+08:00

Some late 80's J-Pop...

...and a sentimental number from Chisato Moritaka.

Timeline: LSGH Brothers' Community as Sanctuary for the Lozada Family

2008-02-16T00:53:00.000+08:00

I received this via email.

From: Edmundo Adolfo Fernandez
Date: Thu, Feb 14, 2008 at 5:57 PM
Subject: For the Lasallian Family

Dear Brothers and Partners:

As requested by some members of the Lasallian Family, I am attaching the chronology of events leading to the use of LSGH Brothers' Community as Sanctuary for the Lozada Family.

You may want to distribute to your respective school communities.

Thank you

January 2008(click on image to enlarge)
February 2008(click on image to enlarge)
Tuesday, February 5(click on image to enlarge)
Wednesday, February 6(click on image to enlarge)
Thursday, February 7(click on image to enlarge)

We remain committed to supporting Mr. Lozada in his desire to speak out the truth. We uphold his right to speak the truth as he sees it or as he has experienced it. We are not in a position to judge the veracity of what he has presented or will continue to present as his testimony. That is for the proper investigating bodies to determine. Our only concern, as Christians and as religious, is to make it possible for this Filipino citizen to speak his truth without intimidation or any form of harassment.

As we would for any persons who perceive that their lives are in imminent danger, we are committed to providing sanctuary and a safe abode for Mr. Lozada's family. We believe this to be our duty as Christians and as religious.

Br. Edmundo L. Fernandez FSC
Brother Visitor

Gloria Resign

2008-02-15T12:00:00.005+08:00

"Those who have gained power by crime are usually compelled to continue their course" - Descartes

(Thanks to Jen for initiating the blogswarm.)

Invitation: Mass for Jun Lozada and Family

2008-02-12T23:23:00.006+08:00

Got this from commenter Mike:

From Cory Aquino: Pls join us for the Mass for Jun Lozada and his family on Sunday, Feb. 17 at 10am in La Salle Greenhills Gym. Fr. Manoling Francisco S.J. will lead us in the Eucharistic Celebration. pls invite your relatives and friends.

Update Feb-14-2008: A clarification from the Black and White Movement.

"There have been reports that the Black & White Movement is organizing Friday's protest action in Makati. This is unfair to UNO and Bayan, these organizations are making great efforts to organize it.

The clarion call of our times is for every Filipino to peaceably exercise their right of assembly and to petition for the redress of grievances. We support the Friday protest.

On our part, the Black & White Movement invites everyone to attend the Mass in support of Jun Lozada and family at La Salle Greenhills this Sunday, 17 February, at 10:00 a.m.

Communal action and communal prayer. Indivisibly, SA TOTOO TAYO. Now na!"

Update Feb-17-2008 4:21PM:

I'm glad to see that the Mass this morning was well attended. :-)

Washington Sycip and The Rise of the Technocrats: A Reality Check

2008-02-09T00:42:00.000+08:00

The Senate hearing featuring Jun Lozada has brought home the flaws of Washington Sycip's proposed technocrat-led government. A few weeks ago, Manolo Quezon pointed to Sycip's vision:

"...Although [Sycip] was cut short of advising that the government should do away with the elections as this will curtail the rights of the people to vote, Sycip said legislators should be stripped off the powers concerning the economic matters of the country.

This would mean the rise of the technocrats, who should be insulated from the politicians. [emphasis mine] These select people will run the country’s economy and will have the necessary powers to immediately effect change or react in cases of emergency, such as the recent move of the US Federal Reserve to cut its interest rates by three quarters of a percentage point.

Sycip, 87, said these technocrats should be given powers like those of the Bangko Sentral’s, that can either raise or ease interest rates immediately without getting the nod of Congress or consulting the President."

The above is a restatement of an earlier speech he gave to the Management Association of the Philippines where he pondered:

"Should we have an Asian model of democracy where economic and education matters are delegated to a group of technocrats that are insulated from politics? Can we expect an elected congress of politicians to respond to the rapid economic changes taking place in a flat world? After all an independent central bank, with little interference from politicians, seems to work quite well for our banking system."

The inspiration for the above model is of course Singapore where Lee Kuan Yew and his elite cadre have propelled that city-state to economic success.

The predicament of Jun Lozada shows us why a technocrat-led model may not be the right one for the Philippines. While technocrats like him may be competent enough to formulate and implement policies and programs in their given areas of expertise, they would still need to operate in an institutional environment where their competence can be channeled towards the good of the majority. Unfortunately, this is hardly the case. For one thing, Lozada pointed out that the Philippine government has a dysfunctional procurement system.

"The procurement system doesn’t really work. The process of procurement is tailoring the process to the supplier. We don’t look for the best supplier. It should be needs-driven, but now it is supply-driven. Also, there’s no check and balance."

Being the results-oriented technocrat that he is, Lozada then tried to reconcile himself to working with the system by personally deciding on a permissible zone of corruption, which is expressed as a certain percentage of the contract price. Outside this would be the forbidden zone. (I've heard this kind of rationalization a long time back from others, usually from my fellow professional types.) However, as is bound to happen, someone comes along to test the boundaries. If that person is influential enough, then the permissible zone continues to grow often at the expense of the technocrat(s) who originally set such boundaries, and who will then be replaced or overriden by other technocrats who possess larger permissible zones.

This brings us to another one of Sycip's misdirected, or at best incomplete, areas of concern. As seen from the first quote above, Sycip worries about legislative interference, but Lozada's testimony points to another source of interference coming from within the Executive Branch itself. This came in the form of rent-seeking behavior by Abalos who requested Lozada to 'protect' 130 million USD of the contract price and insisted in changing the nature of transaction from a Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) scheme to a Loan Arrangement. In his model, Sycip does not adquately address interference coming from this direction. His model also fails to acknowledge situation where the legislature (i.e. the Senate) is the institution that saves the people's money from corruption as in the case of the Senate investigations that led to the cancellation of the NBN/ZTE deal.

Lastly, while Sycip muses about having an "overdose" of democracy, it was actually the Media that saved technocrat Lozada's from his abductors (just as it saved Trillanes from a potential rub-out a few months ago).

In a nutshell, Jun Lozada's experience provides a lesson on how technocrats (or any 'select' group) would be forced to operate in an environment where the leadership is not accountable to the people. In such a situation, anyone who manages to survive a joyride with military-types would be coopted by the very politicians from whom they are supposed to be insulated.

Update Feb-09-2008 8:19PM: Solita Monsod (a former government technocrat herself), reserves her bitterest criticism towards Romulo Neri:

"I reserve my bitterest criticism for Neri. If Mike Arroyo will forever be associated with 'Back off!' Neri will be forever associated with 'Moderate their greed,' if not with the instructions to accommodate projects with powerful “political sponsors.” How could the chief of the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) put his imprimatur on what he knew from the beginning were flawed, overpriced projects, simply because they had powerful political sponsors? Where was his (and the NEDA’s) obligation to make sure that only projects with the highest economic rates of return would be undertaken? And, despite what he knew about the overpricing, how did he manage to calculate a rate of return of 27 percent? Some kind of abracadabra had to be used, because if I remember correctly, the project’s rate of return was originally below the threshold 15 percent level. That really means the NEDA evaluation process has been prostituted."

A Tale of Two Statistics: Family Income and GDP per Capita

2008-01-31T23:08:00.000+08:00

In her column discussing the results of the 2006 Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES), Solita Monsod asked:

"The bottom line here is that if the FIES tells us that poverty must have increased from 2003 to 2006, what with average incomes of the bottom 30 percent decreasing, why is it that our National Income Accounts estimates for the same period tell us that real per capita gross domestic product has increased? How are these conflicting statements to be reconciled?"

The divergence between GDP per Capita and Annual Average Family income is indeed odd because they are both supposed to measure income per given unit of population, i.e. per individual in the case of GDP and per family in the case of the FIES.

In the chart below, i have compared the above FIES result, as well as that of the previous three reports ( 1994 to 1997, 1997 to 2000, and 2000 to 2003), with the per capita GDP change for the same reporting periods.

(click on image to enlarge)
It turns out that except for the 1994 to 1997 reporting period, the two measures of income have diverged. From 1997 to 2006, if one looks at the per capita GDP, the story is of one of continuous improvement in incomes. By contrast, if one looks at FIES, we get the opposite picture, one that shows consistent deterioration in incomes.

As i commented over at Manolo's blog (here and here), one possibility is that GDP is being overstated because of smuggling which understates imports. I also mentioned other possible reasons i could think of:

Use of different population figures as a divisor, but this is unlikely since the figures come from the NSO.
Consistent under-declaration of income by the survey respondents of the FIES. However, assuming a true random sample, this effect should already have been cancelled out across time periods compared (i.e. 2006 and 2003).

Any advice explaining the above discrepancy would be most welcome.

Update Feb-01-2008 4:10am: Here's a chart taken from Poverty in the Philippines: Income, Assets, and Access showing the nominal and real (i.e., in constant 1985 prices) FIES Average Annual Family Income from 1985 to 2003:

(Click on image to enlarge.)
Looking at the line depicting the Average Annual Family Income (in constant prices), it's alarming that the average seems to be falling back to levels last seen in the late 80's.

Update Feb-04-2008 12:32am: Monsod's fellow ex-NEDA Chiefs Cielito Habito and Felipe Medalla have also expressed similar misgivings as early as last July, 2007. At that time, this was the NSCB's response (thanks to commenter INE for the link.) This response points to a more detailed explanation (pdf file) by NSCB Secretary General Romulo A. Virola. IMHO, the explanation still sounds lame to me as it is just a more elaborate way of saying that the two measures are different, without providing actual numbers to back it up.

Side Note: I stumbled across this simplified circular flow model which is useful for visualizing investment, income and expenditure flows between the business and household sector.

Program of Government for 2010: A Laundry List

2008-01-28T23:46:00.000+08:00

(Via mlq3) Janette Toral of Digitalfilipino has called on bloggers to identify what "important issues should voters consider as priority when analyzing politician's or political party agenda". Here's my contribution in the form of a laundry list (for now):

1. Land Reform - Economists have clearly established the link between land reform and economic growth. What will be your government's timetable for completing CARP? How can you ensure full implementation in the face of resistance from the rich and powerful?

2. Food Security - Related to the above, what will be your government's approach to achieving food security?

3. Wealth Redistribution - Philippine society is characterized by extreme concentration of wealth among few families. How can you encourage, convince or otherwise compel the wealthiest families to come up with an action plan to redistribute a portion of their wealth to the poor? How will you monitor progress of these action plans?

4. Industrial Development - The world's leading economies have achieved sustained economic growth by embarking on a conscious program of Industrial Development. What is your approach for building a home-grown manufacturing and industrial base? Specifically, how will your government encourage or otherwise compel the country's leading businessmen to keep their capital in country and invest their wealth in industry instead of in real estate (e.g. malls) and other rent-seeking activities? How will your government continuously manage and monitor their progress?

5. Export Promotion with Import Substitution - How will your government be able to promote exports and at the same time encourage the substitution of imported items with locally manufactured ones?

I'll update during the week.

PaulTheWineGuy's "Understanding Art for Geeks"

2008-01-27T04:46:00.000+08:00

Hilarious and educational. The above are two of my favorites. The author also has a blog.

(Hat tip Crooked Timber.)

Update Feb-05-2008: Unfortunately, the author deleted the collection (thanks Baycas for the advice).

The Ingenuity of the Market: A Primer on the Subprime Crisis

2008-01-24T00:15:00.001+08:00

If the current financial turmoil leads to a full blown crisis, future historians will likely include last year's Subprime Mortgage Financial Crisis as one of its main precursors. The above video provides a clear and concise explanation of that key episode. Watch to get an insight on what the U.K.'s former Chancellor of the Exchequer and current Prime Minister Gordon Brown calls "the ingenuity of the market".

Update Jan-25-2008 4:09AM: To reinforce the above, via the comments section of CrookedTimber, a pointer to David Einhorn's remarks a few months ago on the credit market crisis:

"What strikes me the most about the recent credit market crisis is how fast the world is trying to go back to business as usual. In my view, the crisis wasn't an accident. We didn't get unlucky. The crisis came because there have been a lot of bad practices and a lot of bad ideas. Securitization is a mediocre idea. Re-securitization of securitized assets into a CDO [Collateralized Debt Obligations] is a bad idea. Re-securitization of CDOs into CDO-squared is really a bad idea...And as I will get to in a moment, it is a horrendous idea to delegate most of the responsibility for assessing credit risk to a group of credit rating agencies, paid for by the issuers rather than the buyers of bonds."

On Securitization

"Avocates of securitization say it disperses risk. However, it does so by separating the loan originator from the eventual outcome of the loan. The originator gets a fee up front. The risk is held somewhere down the line in an alphabet soup of structured vehicles called CDOs, CMBs or CLO..."

On Credit Rating Agencies

"Why would anyone blindly lend to an opaque structure full of loans or pieces of pools of loans that they didn't underwrite or even evaluate? Because the structures come with credit ratings from Standard & Poor's, Moody's and Fitch."

Read the whole thing here (PDF file).

EDSA Dos: The Conspiracy According to Mike Arroyo

2008-01-19T16:20:00.000+08:00

I've written about EDSA Dos from the point of view of someone who went out to the streets (here and here). It goes without saying that this is not the only perspective. In keeping with fellow blogger Anna's call for remembrance, i am reposting Mike Arroyo's personal account of the backroom conspiracy that took place* (in an interview published in the March 5, 2001 issue of The Philippine Graphic).

"She [Gloria Arroyo] had really left the Cabinet at the right moment: the timing was perfect. If she had tarried a moment longer, she would have been too late for EDSA: she would have made it there as an opportunist. And as for the ill-feeling in Metro Manila, we tackled that by going back to the door-to-door campaign: she went from barangay to barangay explaining her motives, outlining her program. And it worked. Then came the impeachment trial, and from there, tuloy-tuloy na."

"There was a time honestly, when I felt I erred in advising her to resign from the Cabinet. The masa in Manila apparently wanted her to stick it out with Erap. And when she started attacking him, everything fell on us - grabe!- everything! But I told myself: it's now or never; if we lose here we're totally destroyed and it's goodbye to her political career - but if we win here, she becomes President! So we really fought."

"We got all those Erap tapes from Ramon Jacinto and distributed them all over. We bought one million and a half million copies of Pinoy Times to give away so the public could read about the Erap mansions and bank accounts. "

"And when EDSA happened, we texted everybody to go running there. EDSA, EDSA: everybody converge on EDSA! Panalo kung panalo. Patay kung patay! Jinggoy had already announced what they would do to us if they won."

"Chavit Singson had Plan B involving elements of the military to strike the first blow. They would kindle the spark by withdrawing from the government, and one by one others would follow: Class '71 would also withdraw, then Class '72, and so forth. But General de Villa warned that the timing had to be precise because one untimely move against the government and the military would automatically defend it. The move must be made at what De Villa called a 'defining moment."

"You see, General De Villa had his Plan A, which was better than ours, because his was focused on the Chief of Staff and the Service Commanders. At past one o'clock p.m. January 20, Chief of Staff Angelo Reyes defected but we knew that already the night before, when negotiations had lasted until the small hours. By past 2 a.m. we knew Reyes had been convinced to join. His only condition was: 'Show us a million people on EDSA so it will be easier to bring in the service commanders.'"

"And they asked when the crowd was thickest; we told them: from three to five in the afternoon. So they agreed to come to EDSA at around that time. But while hiding in their safehouse, they got reports that General Calimlim could not be located and their first thought was: "He's out looking for us!" So they decided to rush to EDSA right away. When they got there, why there too at the Shrine was Calimlim! He had been looking for them all right, but join to join them, not to arrest them!"

"Our group there was a back-up strike force. In fact, it was our group that won over to our side the PNP first. If Panfilo Lacson had resisted, he and his men would have been repelled: there would have been bloodshed, but not on EDSA. In every place where Erap loyalists had a force, we had a counter-force to face it, with orders to shoot. And not only in Metro Manila. Carillo had already been sent to the provinces; and in Nueva Ecija, for instance, we had Rabosa. This was a fight to the finish. That's why those five days that Erap was demanding were so important. He was counting on counter-coups and baliktaran."

"I was negotiating with Pardo up to three o'clock in the morning: niloloko lang pala kami. But I told him point-blank: "If by six o'clock this morning you haven't given us the resignation letter, we will storm the gates of Malacañang!' But they insisted on more talk: with De Villa up front, and my back channel debate with Pardo, which even became a three-way contest, with Buboy Virata pitching in."

"But the threat to march to Malacañang was for real. And so was the danger of bloodshed. I wasn't telling Gloria everything: I didn't want her alarmed. So she didn't know about the orders to shoot."

Update Jan-20-2008: Remembering the above becomes especially relevant in light of Malacanang's call to "Forget EDSA II".

*Also posted in the blogs of Manilabaywatch, Schumey, Manuel Buencamino, John Marzan and in the column of Ellen Tordesillas.

My Daemon

2008-01-01T02:24:00.002+08:00

Via Bee.

Benazir Bhutto: 1953 to 2007

2007-12-28T02:26:00.000+08:00

Upon Benazir Bhutto's return to Pakistan last October, there was a [very] brief moment when i thought Pervez Musharraf, learning from Marcos' own failure to reconcile with Ninoy or conversely, F.W. de Klerk's success in reconciling with Nelson Mandela, would actually engineer a political reconciliation either as a way of co-opting and neutralizing her, or as a genuine act of statemanship. The sad reality is that dictators are seldom able to deny their nature.

Here's Bhutto's NY Times Op-Ed from last month where she writes about Musharraf's Martial Plan (via Firedoglake). I can only hope that her half-expected, but nevertheless still shocking murder does not set-off an even more fateful chain of events reminiscent of a previous assasination that took place in Europe almost a hundred years ago.

You can also read Rom's analysis as well as that of John Marzan.

Update 01-01-2008: Via Crookedtimber, an assessment by Jemima Khan, concluding that As Prime Minister, Benazir Bhutto Did Little.

Sakura: Oh I...

2007-12-15T18:16:00.000+08:00

Interfaith Prayer Assembly Against a Morally Bankrupt Arroyo Administration

2007-12-14T00:10:00.000+08:00

Forwarded invitation:

The events of the past weeks have shown in unmistakable terms the deep and intense political crisis that continues to engulf the nation under the current Arroyo administration.

The incident at the Manila Peninsula is a stern reminder that there are still unresolved issues of legitimacy, corruption, human rights abuses and unprecedented abuse of power under the guise of upholding the rule of law. While there may be varying opinions on the Manila Peninsula incident, it is clear that the issues raised were all too familiar. That various groups and personages continue to protest these issues is a clear manifestation that the ruling administration has done little to address them.

What is also disturbing is that the government's response to dissent has been more repression and threats addressed to the citizenry. The images of media workers being hauled like criminals - and the imposition of a curfew, the first since Martial Law - reminds us that repression remains the principal response to dissent under this administration.

And despite claims of growth and development, and the pretense of a "good economist" in Malacañang, many of our countrymen still cry out for economic justice; for land, better wages and decent services. The economic crunch has in fact dampened whatever remaining holiday cheer there may be.

The crisis has gotten worse with many of our people going abroad because they see no hope in our country. Unless the above issues are satisfactorily addressed, we can expect the same turbulence, desperation and frustration to mark the remaining years of this administration.

As the year comes to an end and a new one is imminent, we are again called to renew our commitment to truth and justice. We are again called to stand together to call for accountability in government. We stand firm in rejecting a morally bankrupt Arroyo government as we strive to achieve national unity and renewal.

JOIN US ON December 14, 4-7:00 PM IN AN INTERFAITH ASSEMBLY FOR THE NATION AT THE PLAZA SULAYMAN IN FRONT OF THE MALATE CHURCH , ROXAS BLVD.

Concept Paper of the Interfaith Assembly

The Interfaith Prayer Assembly for the Nation is the second activity of an emerging partnership between Catholic Bishops-Religious Leaders and Citizens Groups. The working relations started with discussions about the current national situation participated in by the various religious leaders and concerned citizens groups last November.

From the discussions came about a Unity Statement that was printed as a paid advertisement in a major daily. The statement called for the "rejection of a morally bankrupt government." Signatories to the statement also came together last November 30 to mark Bonifacio Day and trumpet the rejection call. Thousands joined the mass action at the Liwasang Bonifacio.

The same religious leaders and cause-oriented groups again convened to discuss the events that happened in the Manila Peninsula last November 29. There was common concern regarding the unresolved issues that continue to bring about the political crisis.

A proposal for an Interfaith Prayer Assembly came about as groups continue to express their strong rejection of the current bankrupt Arroyo administration. There is a need to come together once more and affirm our commitment to truth and justice and the decisive resolution of the issues of legitimacy, corruption, human rights abuses and abuse of power. The activity will also serve as a meaningful year ender as the various groups take stock of the achievements in the struggle for the past year and look forward to the challenges ahead.

What is the Interfaith Activity?

The Interfaith Prayer Assembly would involve various faiths and cause-oriented groups coming together in prayer and action for the nation. It would be a venue to express our common sentiments for change in the nation's leadership, a coming together of groups and personalities staunchly opposed to the current bankrupt leadership. The activity will follow the format of a prayer assembly (as opposed to the usual format of a rally).

What is the Theme?

The interfaith activity will reprise the earlier theme of standing together to reject a morally bankrupt administration. It is the broadest basis of unity so far achieved among the religious leaders and various citizens groups. The activity will call on the people to intensify the fight for the decisive resolution of the outstanding issues against the Arroyo administration and for the advancement of meaningful reforms. It is a statement that we vow to relentlessly pursue the fight next year.

Who are the Participants?

All are invited to attend. Aside from the convening groups, we expect participants from all walks of life, all faiths and denominations and various cause-oriented groups.

When and Where will it be Held?

The activity will be held outdoors at the Sulayman Plaza, in front of the Malate Church, Roxas Boulevard on December 14, from 4-7:00 PM.

Senator Pimentel's Report on Trillanes

2007-12-12T00:47:00.000+08:00

Via Ellen Tordesillas:

Senator Aquilino Pimentel visited fellow Senator Antonio Trillanes and the other detainees from the Peninsula Standoff. He provided the following report in the form of a PowerPoint presentation:

I have extracted the following highlights from the above presentation:

Shots were fired to make it appear that there was an armed uprising going on in the Pen when in fact there was none.
The presence of media prevented a bloodbath.
Trillanes explains that his cause – even the recent Peninsula Hotel incident - was not an armed uprising or a rebellion. They wanted, he said, to simply air their grievance against their prolonged detention and pendency of the criminal charges against them in the Makati court and several disciplinary charges against them in various court martials.

Update 12-12-07 7:01PM: More clarifications from Senator Trillanes regarding his PDAF Allocation and apology to the Court.

Update 12-14-07 12:43AM: Schumey displays a copy of Senator Trillanes' letter to Senator Enrile.

The Sumilao Farmers' March: What's at Stake

2007-12-10T02:50:00.000+08:00

Those who believe that the Sumilao March is of little concern to them should consider the following:

"Theory and empirical evidence suggest that widespread ownership of land not only improves equity but also improves land productivity. All the [High Performing Asian Economies (HPAEs)] with substantial agrarian sectors have widespread land holding, resulting from either traditional ownership patterns (Indonesia and Thailand) or land reform (Japan, Korea, and Taiwan, China). Malaysia, with a relatively small population and ample land, is an exception; there, corporate-owned plantations have dominated agricultural output since the colonial era. Hong Kong and Singapore have almost no agricultural sector." - World Bank Development Brief Number 21, October 1993

"inequality in the ownership of land not only is more important for explaining growth than inequality in the distribution of income, it also turns the distribution of income into an inconsequential factor." - Elhann Helpman, The Mystery of Economic Growth

"The [feudalization of industry] manifests itself in the pervasiveness of rent-seeking activity on the part of the local industrial elite, reflecting the dual activity (perhaps 'schizophrenia' would be more appropriate) of that group, which has one foot still in the landlord-tenant relations of the countryside and the other foot in the urban or industrial commercial sector. There has never occurred a severing of the links between the landed elite and the urban industrial / commercial elite as there has been for example in certain other Asian coutnries via the overthrow of landlord power through genuine land reform." [emphasis mine] (O'Connor 1990) - Temario C. Rivera, Landlords & Capitalists: Class, Family, and State in Philippine Manufacturing

"More significantly for policy purposes, though, are the findings that per capita expenditure, per capita income, and per capita net farm incomes of farmers owning lands...are significantly higher than their counterparts who do not own land. This shows unambiguously the importance of ownership or control of the land in determining incomes of farmers. Moreover, he also found that the odds that a household is non-poor is higher by between 1.8 and 2.6 times than the odds that it will be poor, if it owns land—again reinforcing the importance of land ownership. For poverty reduction, and for income growth, CARP is crucial." - Solita Monsod, A Look at CARP’s Impact on Poverty and Growth, 12/01/2007

What the Sumilao farmers are fighting for are the keys to our economic development which for too long have been in the hands of a pathological and predatory elite.

Venezuela: Hugo Chavez Creates Own Time Zone

2007-12-09T23:59:00.000+08:00

With the latest announcement from their President, Venezuelans must be wondering whether they are edging towards this classic Bananas moment.

Equality as a Factor in Economic Takeoffs

2007-12-09T01:35:00.000+08:00

Below is my response to Silent Water's comment over at Manolo's has gone under moderation so i'm reposting it here. (You may have to read my preceding comment to follow the discussion.)

"Silent Waters, i'm not a communist but try to look at things objectively. You need only observe at how fast the land of your grandfathers is taking off economically to see that the combination of Communism first and then Market Reforms later, does work. If it's any comfort to you, i'm not advocating communism (especially the Maoist kind). Other countries such as Japan, Taiwan and South Korea was also able to take off without having to go communist. They just addressed the issue of inequality early enough so that it does not get in the way of economic growth. Dictatorship is also not my first preference. The case of India, (another country which followed Socialist prescriptions and then introduced Market reforms) shows that you don't have to be a dictatorship to engineer an economic takeoff.

You seem to believe that what distinguishes the elite, middle class and the poor is hard work. That's not the case since Philippine society is not (and has never been) a meritocracy. If you're born poor, you're likely to die poor no matter how hard you work. The poor people you look down on as being 'lazy' are smart enough to know the odds. It's only people's elitist attitude that keeps them from seeing that." - cvj December 9th, 2007 at 1:32 am

Update Feb-01-2008: In an essay at the Boston Review, Pranab Bardhan explains why equality has proven to be a "good launching pad" for market reform:

"China’s earlier socialist period arguably provided a good launching pad for market reform. That foundation provided wide access to education and health care; highly egalitarian land redistribution that created a rural safety net and thus eased the process of market reform, with all its wrenching disruptions and dislocations; increased female labor participation and education that enhanced women’s contribution to economic growth; and a system of regional economic decentralization (that linked the career paths of Communist Party officials to local area performance). County governments were in charge of production enterprises long before Deng Xiaoping’s economic reforms set in, and, even more significantly, the earlier commune system’s production brigades evolved into the highly successful township and village enterprises that led the later phenomenal rise of rural industrialization."

(Via 3Quarksdaily.)

Ayaka: 三日月

2007-12-08T02:10:00.000+08:00

Statement of La Salle Brothers: Let Us Start The Change We Want To See

2007-12-04T23:52:00.000+08:00

La Salle Green Hills Retreat House
National Heroes Day
30 November 2007
To all Filipinos of goodwill,

Profoundly disturbed by recent events, we the De La Salle Brothers of the Philippines, have decided as a body to exercise our vocation as teachers and guides by raising our voices in protest at the moral degeneration that has infiltrated almost every aspect of public life since we called for a restoration of faith in democracy in 2005.

In July of that year, we and our colleagues issued a public statement in response to the crisis brought on by the Garcillano tapes and the ensuing controversies surrounding President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. At that time, we spoke out as educators, charged with the moral guidance of the young and concerned with upholding the values of honesty, integrity and truthfulness in public life and civil society. In that statement, we affirmed the principle that moral ascendancy is a critical ingredient to effective governance, and warned that a leadership without moral authority cannot realistically command the respect of a nation. Today, two years later, we are alarmed and ashamed that the situation has increasingly worsened. The signs of moral disintegration abound:

the escalating number of acts of violence against journalists, leftists and members of the legal opposition, which according to a report of the UN Human Rights Council representative have been perpetrated by some elements in the military;
unresolved anomalies in government, including the aborted ZTE-NBN deal and the fertilizer scam, which involve billions of pesos in public funds;
the large amounts of cash distributed in brown bags to some lawmakers at Malacañang just as impeachment moves were being initiated and firmed up in Congress and the facile efforts to hide the truth about their origins and purpose;
concerted efforts among some lawmakers and government officials to block attempts at establishing truth and securing accountability;
the corruption of the electoral system as manifested in various anomalies related to the last national elections.

The net effect of these, together with past anomalies, has been to further undermine confidence in practically every institution of government. Widespread despair with these existing institutions can only spawn violence and increasing military adventurism. We need only think of the fiasco at the Manila Peninsula on 29 November 2007 to see that this is so.

What is even more lamentable is the degree to which many Filipinos have become desensitized to the stench of corruption because of the unending stream of government-related scams, cover-ups and scandals. The unwillingness of the public to engage in peaceful public exercises of moral outrage and to support calls for government accountability bespeak a weary cynicism and loss of hope in all possibility of meaningful change that is especially alarming for us as educators.

This retreat from civic responsibility bodes ill for the future. This is perhaps our generation’s greatest crime: to rob our people, especially our youth, of the conviction that noble ideals are worth every sacrifice and that moral principles must prevail in public life.

For these reasons, even if it amounts to no more than a voice crying out in the wilderness, we, the De La Salle Brothers of the Philippines, feel the need to proclaim once again the same values we espoused in 2005: truth, justice, honesty and integrity. Without these, no government can be trusted, and where there is no trust, governance degenerates into bribery and intimidation.

We join in the call of courageous religious leaders and of proven men and women of conscience who seek a moral revolution. But if such a call is to become more than mere lip-service, we must translate it into effective action on behalf of the values we espouse, keeping in mind the legal framework of the Constitution. We call on men and women of goodwill to act now to make real the change they want to see.

To all parents, teachers, pastors, religious and all those charged with the moral formation of youth: God has given us the extraordinary privilege of mentoring the young and laying the foundations of our country’s future. Let us not betray God’s trust. Let us teach the young that what is happening today is wrong. Let us teach them that a life without moral virtue or principle is no life at all, but a subhuman existence unworthy of their dignity as children of God. Let us teach them that we are all answerable to God for what we have made, not just of our lives, but also of our nation. Let us teach them, as one man showed us years ago, that the Filipino is worth dying for.

To all Filipino workers here and abroad, farmers and fisherfolk, men and women in business, entrepreneurs and professionals: your efforts and earnings sustain the economic and political life of our country. In solidarity with one another, demand more from this government. Come together to hold this country’s leadership accountable for their stewardship of the taxes you pay. Demand that every centavo be properly allocated and accounted for. Demand transparency and fairness in all business transactions. Consider the long-term goals and voice your displeasure at lost opportunities and the abuses that squander our nation’s wealth to the detriment of all, especially the poor.

To all artists, poets, writers and media practitioners: you are the vanguards of culture. You bear the great responsibility of ennobling the soul and creating a culture supportive of truth, justice and respect for human dignity. Focus on this task. Create visions and words that inspire and move our people to live up to what is best in them.

To all our men and women in uniform: our hearts go out to you for the ready sacrifices you have made again and again in the service of our nation. We acknowledge with gratitude the selflessness many of you have shown again and again. Remember that you are called to be defenders of the Constitution and protectors of human rights. Please do not fail in this charge. Let it be clear, however, that we do not condone military adventurism for it is inconsistent with the basic democratic values we hold dear.

To all civil servants, legislators and government workers: we believe that you also dream of a better nation for our children. We beg you to resist the culture of corruption. Help us build a future full of hope for our children.

To all our alumni and alumnae: we encourage you to take cognizance of the education you have received from La Salle all these years. As dark clouds hover in the horizon, we challenge you to and make a difference. Take heart from your fellow alumnus, Jose W. Diokno, and his vision of “a free nation, where men and women and children from all regions and with all kinds of talents may find truth and play and sing and laugh and dance and love without fear…”

We end this statement by sharing with you, our fellow Filipinos, this prayer of hope as we, the De La Salle Brothers look to 2011, the 100th year of the Lasallian ministry of education in the Philippines:

Lord, let me be the change I want to see
To do with strength and wisdom
All that needs to be done
And become the hope that I can be.
Set me free from my fears and hesitations.
Grant me courage and humility.
Fill me with spirit to face the challenge
And start the change I want to see.
Today, I start the change I want to see.
Even if I’m not the light, I can be the spark.
In faith, service and communion
Let us start the change we want to see,
The change that begins in me.

Signed:

Dream Academy's "A Crazy Christmas"

2007-12-02T01:47:00.000+08:00

I just watched A Crazy Christmas, a Christmas concert by eleven of the best and most accomplished musical and theater performers of Singapore. If you happen to be in Singapore between now and December 9, i highly recommend that you watch the show. (For details, click on the link above.)

The Phillippine Middle Class Plays Machiavelli

2007-12-01T14:11:00.000+08:00

Over at Manolo's Victory of the New Society thread, I have been having a discussion with commenter 'Silent Waters'. My latest response has gone 'under moderation' so i'm reposting it here. (To follow the discussion, you may need to refer back to Manolo's thread starting here.)

"I think that reality dictates that we accept FOR NOW, the situation wherein the elites will protect their interest. and the middle class have become expedient. That should be the framework to come up with a strategy to fix the problem." - Silent Waters

My response: Fixing the problem involves dismantling that framework. It is in our interest to establish a different framework based on fair play and genuine democratic values because the Middle Class does not have the resources or numbers to play Machiavellian games.

"Your ideas are good in the theoretical world where everybody will be the goody two shoes you expect them to be. Fact is, they’re not." - Silent Waters

My response: Bayanihan is not a theoretical concept. If you think it is in our interest to sustain an environment that is hostile to the 'goody two shoes' (i.e. decent folks), then i think you should review your kind of 'realism'.

"As for the last part, look at what Dr. Martin Bautista did? Di naman siya kilala, middle class din siya, pero he did try. And I know for sure, he will try again. Now that is walking the walk and not just talking the talk." - Silent Waters

My response: I agree, which is why i voted for Martin Bautista and will most likely vote for him again. However to boost his chances, his supporters (like you and me) should be seen to be living his values (of justice and fair play) and not tolerating an unjust framework based on expediency.

Balimbing Roll-Call

2007-11-30T14:33:00.000+08:00

Now is a good time to do one. Fortunately, today's technology already makes this possible.

The Peninsula Standoff

2007-11-29T16:54:00.000+08:00

Liveblogging by DJB and Schumey. Also by Manuel Buencamino.

Ellen Tordesillas is in the thick of things.

I salute our new heroes led by Senator Antonio Trillanes IV...
	...and General Danilo Lim.

Update 12-01-07: A piece of up-close blogger journalism by Jego.

Philippine Quarterly GDP Growth Dashboard: 1Q 2004 to 3Q 2007

2007-11-29T12:30:00.000+08:00

This is an update of the GDP Growth Dashboard from the previous entry to include the 3Q 2007 figures. The graphic below shows the quarterly growth per sector from 1Q 2004 to 3Q 2007. The graphic is derived from data made available at the NSCB Web Site:

Growth Rate per Type of Expenditure(Click on image to enlarge)
Growth Rate per Industry Sector(Click on image to enlarge)
(Further updates later.)

*Very Good means that growth rate for a given period is greater than the median growth rate for the periods considered by equal or more than one standard deviation as computed using the 1Q 2004 to 2Q 2007 figures.
**Good means that the growth rate for a given period is equal or greater than the median growth rate for the periods considered as computed using the 1Q 2004 to 2Q 2007 figures.
***Poor means that the growth rate for a given period is less than the median growth rate for the periods considered as computed using the 1Q 2004 to 2Q 2007 figures.
****Very Poor means that growth rate for a given period is less than or equal to one standard deviation below the median growth rate for the periods considered as computed using the 1Q 2004 to 2Q 2007 figures.

Pakistan to Return to Civilian Rule

2007-11-28T12:43:00.000+08:00

Back in the late 80's when we were being subjected to Honasan's coups, a local TV sitcom spoofed a victorious military junta giving a press conference:

"Reporter: Sir, when will we return to civilian rule?
Junta leader: When we retire.
Reporter: Please clarify.
Junta leader: After we retire, we will then become civilians, so by then you'll all be under civilian rule."

Looks like this Pakistani general also followed Philippine sitcoms. Congratulations Pakistan, (i think).

US Presidential Candidate Compatibility Quiz

2007-11-27T18:50:00.000+08:00

Via John Marzan. You can take the test here.

Ultimate 2008 Presidential Candidate Matcher Your Result: Dennis Kucinich The top priority of Dennis Kucinich is to end the war in Iraq. Kucinich also favors a repeal of the Patriot Act, would fund stem cell research, and create a universal healthcare program. He is liberal on social issues, and favors eliminating Bush's tax cuts for the wealthy. Kucinich is also concerned about global warming.
Dennis Kucinich (88%)
Barack Obama (84%)
Hillary Clinton (83%)
John Edwards (82%)
Rudy Guiliani (30%)
John McCain (16%)
Ron Paul (4%)
Mitt Romney (0%)

It would be a sign of progress if for 2010, we would be considering our Presidential candidates on the basis of their stand on issues, although this is by no means the only criteria. (Despite what the above results says, i wouldn't be voting for Kucinich.)

Regina: Baby Love

2007-11-25T20:49:00.000+08:00

Another 80's classic.

Political CompassTM of the Philippine Blogosphere

2007-11-24T01:45:00.000+08:00

Thanks to Anna's invitation, there are now more data points to map the ideological landscape of the Philippine blogging community as measured by the quiz over at the Political Compass^TM website. I've tabulated the responses and plotted them as a scatterplot below.

Click on image to enlarge
The local blogosphere (at least those who congregate at Manolo Quezon's blog) tend to cluster in the lower left quadrant of the Compass. Another pattern that can be detected, as traced by the red line of best fit below, is the farther one is to the left on the economic scale, the less authoritarian that person tends to be.
Whether the above patterns are representative of the larger Philippine Society or a segment of it is, at this point, a matter of speculation.

Update Nov-30-2007 12:56AM: Over at mlq3's, commenter inidoro ni emilie makes an interesting conjecture:

"i suspect that with more data points you can muster, your fit will turn out to be more downward parabolic than linear [q3 and q4]. which means, those in the first quadrant will turn out to be outliers–more exceptions to the rule."

The only way to find out one way or the other is to get enough data points.

Update Nov-25-2007 12:32AM: I have adjusted the line of best fit above to conform to the results of the linear regression computations. Here's the slope, y-intercept and correlation coefficient and median values given the available data.

slope, m=	0.21
y-intercept, b=	-2.01
Correlation Coefficient, r=	0.289
Median, left/right	-3.62
Median, top/down	-2.72

I will adjust as new data comes in.

Update Nov-24-2007 8:50PM: Below are the raw scores i used for the above graph.


Label	Blogger / Commenter	X-Axis	Y-Axis
1 adb	Anna de Brux	-2.50	-0.62
2 d0d	D0d0ng	0	3
3 Upn	Upn Student	1	-2.05
4 jeg	Jego	-2.00	-2.72
5 mav	The EQualizer	-4.38	-1.28
6 abe	Abe Margallo	-4.00	-2.72
7 awb	Arbet Bernardo	-5.13	-1.85
8 cvj	Chuck Jugo	-4.25	-3.03
9 aynk	Ay Naku	-2.88	-5.49
10 dvl8	DevilsAdv8	-6.62	-4.87
11 brnb	BrianB	-7.75	-4.00
12 vkg	Viking	-4.62	-6.46
13 Torn	Torn	-7.50	-7.59
14 rnm	Renmin	-9.88	-6.05
15 mb	Manuel Buencamino	-2.62	-3.64
16 jstr	Jester-in-Exile	-4.88	-3.23
17 elln	Ellen Tordesillas	-2.62	-4.56
18 pscd	Karlo Mongaya	-8.00	-1.69
19 jjm	Jojo Malig	-6.13	-3.64
20 sprk	Sparks	-8.38	-4.97
21 tng	Tongue In, Anew	-5.25	-2.67
22 smp	Sampot	-6.75	-2.82
23 pil	Pilipino	-3.25	-1.25
24 jmrz	John Marzan	0.38	-0.41
25 schm	Schumey	-6.25	-3.79
26 asjr	Antonio Sy Jr.	1.73	-1.03
27 djb	Dean Jorge Bocobo	0.75	-0.92
28 rom	Rom Sedona	-0.62	-5.08
29 ine	Inidoro ni Emilie	-5.51	-0.72
30 kg	Karl Garcia	-4.12	-0.97
31 mlq3	Manuel L. Quezon III	-3.50	-5.69
32 niki	Blogspotting	-3.25	-2.62
33 jfck	Joyful Chicken	3.38	-5.13
34 raein	Tiffany Chua	-5.62	-0.21
35 harrell	Harrell Wong	-1.5	0.82
36 bong	Brian Ong	-3.25	-0.15
37 mita	Mita	-3.62	-3.03
38 dmb	Dean Michael Berris	2.75	-4.26
39 lstr	Lester Cavestany	-2.38	-2.21

Update Nov-25-2007 10:20PM: For purposes of comparison, here are the results of a similar exercise done for the New Zealand Blogosphere more than four and a half years ago.

slope, m=	0.234
y-intercept, b=	-4.41
Correlation Coefficient, r=	0.553
Median, left/right	-3.44
Median, top/down	-4.82

The same inverse relationship between leftist convictions and authoritarian dispositions is found among the Kiwi bloggers of that time period.

Update Nov-26-2007 11:14PM: Here's another such ongoing survey from 2004 with 299 bloggers. My guess is that these are mostly American blogs.

slope, m=	0.377
y-intercept, b=	-1.78
Correlation Coefficient, r=	0.566
Median, left/right	3.4
Median, top/down	-0.5

As seen from the positive correlation coefficient, the observed relationship also holds for this batch.

The Poor: Two Narratives (Part 2)

2007-11-22T12:28:00.000+08:00

As a follow-up to my previous blog entry, i was looking for the best way to describe the second narrative. I've come across some good ones, but i think this quote linked to by Urbano de la Cruz nails it:

"the people who come to the city [and live in squatter developments] are the cream of the crop with the highest ambitions and aspirations."

As he says, it's something to think about.

Anonymity, Pseudo-Anonymity and Privacy

2007-11-18T03:01:00.000+08:00

The Guardian Unlimited article, which i linked to in my previous blog entry, presents the Electronic Frontier Foundation's defense of anonymous speech:

Kurt Opsahl, a senior staff lawyer with the Electronic Frontier Foundation, an advocacy group that defends online free speech, privacy and intellectual property rights, said Kerr's argument ignores both privacy laws and American history.

"Anonymity has been important since the Federalist Papers were written under pseudonyms," Opsahl said. "The government has tremendous power: the police power, the ability to arrest, to detain, to take away rights. Tying together that someone has spoken out on an issue with their identity is a far more dangerous thing if it is the government that is trying to tie it together."

In other words, anonymity is necessary since government is not always benevolent, and free speech by the individual is valued by society.

On the other hand, blogger Bee contends that...

"an overdose of anonymity is fatal to every kind of constructive communication"

In her blog entry, she links to Kevin Kelly's contribution to the book What Is Your Dangerous Idea?, i.e. "More anonymity is good"
which highlights the dangers of too much anonymity:

"...in every system that I have seen where anonymity becomes common, the system fails...Communities infected with anonymity will either collapse, or shift the anonymous to pseudo-anonymous, as in eBay, where you have a traceable identity behind an invented nickname. Or voting, where you can authenticate an identity without tagging it to a vote...

Anonymity is like a rare earth metal. These elements are a necessary ingredient in keeping a cell alive, but the amount needed is a mere hard-to-measure trace. In larger does these heavy metals are some of the most toxic substances known to a life. They kill. Anonymity is the same. As a trace element in vanishingly small doses, it's good for the system by enabling the occasional whistleblower, or persecuted fringe. But if anonymity is present in any significant quantity, it will poison the system."

Kelly concludes that...

"Privacy can only be won by trust, and trust requires persistent identity, if only pseudo-anonymously. In the end, the more trust, the better."

The above discussion clarifies for me the value of anonymity, its relation to privacy, and its limits. More importantly, it introduces the concept of pseudo-anonymity, i.e. anonymity that is traceable to a particular identity.

Pseudo-anonymity can be a means to bridge the requirements of national security without sacrificing privacy. In practical terms:

The Telecommunication Companies and Financial Institutions need to implement technologies that will mask the identity of its users. These masking technologies will prevent the identity of the persons from being known (even by the Government) without the application of the corresponding unmasking technology.
The Government Intelligence Agencies can then continue to monitor the masked communications and/or transactions without any court order.
Once anything suspicious comes up, the Government Intelligence Agency can then apply for a court order requesting the unmasking of the relevant communications or transactions, i.e. linking these communications or transactions with a particular individual.

The above scheme balances the needs of privacy and national security.

Abe Margallo: The Philippine Elite's Bayanihan Pact

2007-11-17T16:43:00.000+08:00

In his blog entry, Abe Margallo reflects on What to do with the Philippine Oligarchs. He provides a concise summary of where the recent Philippine Presidents (legitimately elected or otherwise) stand with respect to the Philippine political and economic elite. More importantly, Abe reiterates his proposed Bayanihan Pact which is...

"...an entrepreneurial arrangement where the oligarchs emerge as national business elites in partnership with the State, a representative group from the private sector, and the bureaucracy (hence, there’s no need for a bloody confrontation) in the nature of a Philippine, Inc., just as a Japan, Inc., a Korean, Inc. or a China, Inc., of recent time or the French, Inc. the British, Inc. or the American, Inc. of the old."

I believe Abe's suggestion (which he first wrote about in his book aptly titled Build or Perish and further discussed in his blog entries here and here) is the optimal way to achieve economic takeoff without going through the hassle and gamble of a Civil War or a populist dictatorship.

Privacy Without Anonymity in the USA

2007-11-15T23:44:00.000+08:00

A few months back, i wrote a blog entry on Privacy Without Anonymity. Over the weekend, Donald Kerr, principal deputy director of national intelligence in the United States, declared:

"Privacy no longer can mean anonymity...Instead, it should mean that government and businesses properly safeguard people's private communications and financial information."

Over at Boing Boing, where i stumbled upon this news, there is a lot of resistance to what it calls an Orwellian redefinition. I would tend to be more sympathetic since the tradeoff between privacy and transparency is not cut and dried and is something that merits thorough deliberation. As Kerr added:

"Our job now is to engage in a productive debate, which focuses on privacy as a component of appropriate levels of security and public safety...I think all of us have to really take stock of what we already are willing to give up, in terms of anonymity, but [also) what safeguards we want in place to be sure that giving that doesn't empty our bank account or do something equally bad elsewhere."

In principle, i agree with his statement although not necessarily with the policy of eavesdropping without a court order.

Demographic Dividend and Faith in the Philippines

2007-11-13T02:15:00.000+08:00

At the start of 2005, Jaime Augusto Zobel de Ayala gave a speech where he professed his faith in the Philippines based on three emerging trends. One of these is the demographic dividend::

"Philippine population has shifted structurally where those of working age – from 15 to 64 – will considerably dwarf those of dependent age (children and the elderly). In 2005, our working age population is projected to constitute 61.8% of the population. This is projected to rise to 63.9% by 2010, 65.6% by 2015, and 68% by 2025."

As basis, he cited a Study by Dr. David E. Bloom on the Demographic Dividend: New Perspective on Economic Consequences Population Change which correlates the rapid per capita growth in East Asia to such a change in the population structure:

"East Asia created its economic miracle in part because of this. Rapid demographic transition from 1965 to 1990 was matched by real per capita income growth averaging 6% per year during the same period. The demographic alone is estimated to account for approximately one-fourth to two-fifths of this growth. The same transition is pushing China and India into the forefront of economic development. Dr. Bloom believes that the next 10 to 15 years could be the turn of Southeast Asia, particularly Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines."

In a related paper Contraception and the Celtic Tiger, Dr. Bloom together with David Canning describes a similar economic takeoff by Ireland that coincided with the legalization of contraceptives. This Paper talks about the dependency ratio and asserts that:

"Contrary to the neutralist view, the emerging evidence indicates that population does matter to economic growth, with age structure playing a central role. As the dependency ratio falls, opportunities for economic growth tend to rise, creating what is now referred to as a 'demographic dividend'."

Ratio, Working-Age to Non-Working-Age Population
True enough, a separate paper by Rodrik, Pritchett and Hausmann on Growth Accelerations shows that Ireland's annual per capita GDP growth in the decade after 1985 accelerated to an annual average of 5.0% as compared to the previous eight years where the figure was at 1.6% (a difference of 3.4%).

For their part, Bloom and Canning takes pains to stress that change in age structure within a population alone does not account for the entire growth acceleration. Rather,

"It is important to note that Ireland, like the 'miracle' economies of East Asia, had in place economic and social policies that favoured its taking advantage of the demographic shifts it experienced. Two key policies were at work in Ireland. First, in the late 1950s, there was recognition that the 'closed economy' model of development had failed in Ireland. This led to new policies with an emphasis on encouraging direct foreign investment in Ireland and promoting exports. Second, from the mid-1960s, free secondary education was introduced, leading to a large increase in school enrolments and subsequent expansions in higher education. The resultant high levels of education, combined with export-oriented economic policies, seem to be powerful factors in ensuring that the benefits of the demographic transition are realised. As discussed in the introduction, there are a wide range of policies that have contributed to Ireland’s economic growth. We think these policies also made the Irish economy more flexible and capable of absorbing, and profiting from, the demographic dividend. In our empirical study we use 'openness' as a measure that affects the impact of the demographic dividend, but we see 'openness' more as a proxy for good economic policies in general and not an
endorsement of export orientation alone..."

In the case of the Philippines, the improvement in the dependency ratio that Zobel de Ayala mentioned in his speech is indeed taking place although at a somewhat slower pace.

Ratio, Working-Age to Non-Working-Age Population
[Sources: derived from "Zobel de Ayala's speech and NSCB Estimates]
I'm not sure why the above NSCB estimates are lower than the figures quoted by Zobel de Ayala in his speech. Perhaps these other people of faith have something to do with it.

Update Nov-15-2007 3:06am: In the comments section, Urbano de la Cruz points to the role of cities as population sinks. This means that greater urbanization contributes to the decrease in the birth rate.

Trickle-Down Economics

2007-11-09T21:31:00.000+08:00

Mariannet Amper

"There is this mind-set, which I think is so passe, that says: ‘The country is in shambles and the country is having a hard time and you are out there partying.’ But this generation is guiltless when it comes to that." - Tim Yap

November 9, 2007: Postcards for Gloria Day

2007-11-05T22:51:00.000+08:00

Click on image to enlarge
Similar activities are also planned overseas. Details can be found here and here. For further updates, visit the Black and White Movement's blog. As Manolo reminds us:

"...in small yet meaningful ways, resistance is what’s called for these days...not by blowing things up or giving the authorities the satisfaction of beating us up, or, God forbid, inconveniencing those who value the smooth traffic flow more than they care about the disappearance of Jonas Burgos, or inconveniencing the congressmen in cassocks known as the Catholic bishops. So what can we do, that allows us to be considerate of the politically blind, but which will show that we are aware, awake, and not in awe of the authorities?

Consider that the prime message of the government that adores your tax pesos so it can serve up cash buffets in the presidential palace you own, is this: they are all the same. This is meant to discourage your thinking of alternatives, because if all the alternatives are like what we have, better the devil in the duster you already have, to any other devil waiting in the wings. But this argument is only good as long as you agree that indeed, you are like them: that when they say they are all the same, they include you.

Are you really like them? Is the congressman or governor waddling out of Malacañang with a doggie bag full of money, the same as you? Of course not. When they shriek, “let he who is without sin, cast the first stone,” they forget the number of guests at the cash buffet didn’t include millions like yourself. But OK, let’s not cast stones. Let’s send something peaceful but equally painful: words on postcard."

Update Nov-19-2007: Pictures of the postcard i sent last November 9 (needed help to upload - thanks Pimpuk!)

S Club 7: Never Had A Dream Come True

2007-11-03T00:37:00.000+08:00

Selectorate Theory: Implications of Political Legitimacy on Governance

2007-10-31T02:58:00.000+08:00

Urbano de la Cruz points to a fascinating body of work by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita. You can read more about it here. Browsing through an online copy of de Mesquita's book The Logic of Political Survival, I stumbled upon this neat diagram on page 130 that summarizes the core predictions of Selectorate Theory:

A detailed explanation of the various aspects of the diagram can be found in the book itself. What i would want to focus on is on what the above diagram has to say about the issue of Gloria Arroyo's lack of political legitimacy and the prospects of good governance given her lack of legitimacy. This involves understanding the concepts of a Leader's Discretionary Funds and the gap between the Selectorate and the Winning Coalition

Leader's Discretionary Funds: The book defines kleptocracy as something more than mere corruption. Rather, it is "outright theft of a nation's income by its leaders". It goes on to say that:

"The opportunity to engage in kleptocracy - while retaining one's position as an incumbent - is determined by the difference between the revenue available to a government and the expenditures made by the government. Whatever is left over from the two quantities is money available for the discretionary use of incumbent leaders."

Gap between Selectorate and the Winning Coalition: As per the Wikipedia entry on Selectorate Theory:

"The Selectorate is simply those within the state that have a say in policy outcome (in the United States, for example, it would be all citizens over the age of 18 eligible to vote). The Winning Coalition is a proportion of the Selectorate sufficient to choose and sustain a leader in office."

Under the Philippine Electoral System, the Selectorate consists of the pool of eligible voters while, in theory, the Winning Coalition is the proportion of voters who choose the President, which at least since 1992, has been a plurality.
(to be continued)

Save Marilou Ranario Campaign

2007-10-29T20:08:00.000+08:00

From Yuko Takei:

Date: Sat, 20 Oct 2007 15:53:14 +0800

Dear friends,

Warm greetings! We’re writing to enjoin member organizations and our network to participate in a November 13th internationally-coordinated day of action for Marilou Ranario, the Filipino domestic worker on death row in Kuwait .

November 13th is the first day of oral arguments on Marilou’s case with the Kuwaiti Supreme Court (the Court of Cassation). According to the DFA, a final verdict is expected by January or February next year.

We suggest that actions on that day be directed at Kuwait embassies or consulates in your areas since we need to make them aware of the strong and widespread support for Marilou. The tone of activities will be to appeal to the Kuwait Amir and other government officials to spare her life at the minimum and at the maximum, release and repatriate her.

In this light, we propose the following activities may be held on our November 13th day of action:
Delegation to local Kuwait embassy to submit letters of appeal or petitions for Marilou;
Release of organizational resolutions by our organizations and other Filipino groups na maari makausap to participate in this campaign;
Email or fax barrage to the Kuwait embassy or Kuwait Amir’s office (email and fax is on the sample letter to the Amir); and
Issue press releases and statements to media (na nag-appeal to the Kuwait government at sumisingil sa Arroyo government sa kanilang criminal neglect and culpability in this case)
For your reference, please find attached an information kit about this case (fact sheet, appeal from Marilou’s sister, appeal to the Kuwait Amir, tagalog petition and tagalog flyer).

We’re still finalizing the English petition but we will circulate it as soon as it’s finished.

As well, please find following a quick update about our Save Marilou Ranario Campaign to date:
Last October 10th, we formally launched the Save Marilou Ranario Movement with a march, interfaith service and press conference at the Quezon Memorial Circle . This activity was held on the World Day Against the Death Penalty. In Hong Kong , UNIFIL-MIGRANTE-HK also led a picket at the RP consulate to raise Marilou’s issue as well as the case of Jocelyn Dulnuan and other victims of the Arroyo government’s criminal neglect.

SMRM Convenor members include: the Diocese of Novaliches (Marilou’s parish in Quezon City); Religious of the Good Shepherd-WJPIC; AMRSP mission partner Women and Gender Commission; United Methodist Church; National Council of Churches in the Philippines; KASIMBAYAN; GABRIELA; ACT; Center for Women’s Resources; United Council of Churches in the Philippines; and Migrante International. The invitation of new conveners to the SMRM is ongoing.

In Surigao, Marilou’s home province, GABRIELA-Surigao has met with the family and formed a local Save Marilou Ranario Movement Committee. They’ve also begun to project her case in local media and along with church people, they’ve also been able to mobilize lawyers, other advocates and former classmates of Marilou.

The Center for Women’s Resources produced a short video about Marilou’s case that we will try get onto youtube.com soonest.

The next activity of the SMRM at the national level is an inter-agency dialogue on November 7th about Marilou’s case, other death row cases as well as other urgent issues of migrants. This will be held at St. Peter’s Cathedral. Already, the Usec. Conejos of the Office for the Undersecretary for Migrant Workers Affairs has confirmed his presence.
Thank you in advance and we hope for your participation in the upcoming November 13th internationally-coordinated day of action for Marilou Ranario.

In the service of migrants and their families,

Maita Santiago
Secretary-General

Migrante International
#65 10th Avenue
Brgy. Socorro, Cubao
Quezon City, Philippines
Telefax: (63-2) 911-4165
migrante@smartbro.net

For further updates, please visit Asia Pacific Mission for Migrants website.

Update 12-9-07 11:56PM: Kuwait Emir commutes Marilou Ranario's sentence to Life Term

Online Petition for Snap Elections

2007-10-28T22:11:00.000+08:00

If you're Filipino and you agree, you can sign here.

To: President and Vice President of the Republic of the Philippines
MANIFESTO / PETITION ONLINE CALLING
FOR THE IMMEDIATE RESIGNATION OF GLORIA MACAPAGAL-ARROYO AND NOLI DE CASTRO AND FOR THE HOLDING OF SPECIAL (“SNAP”) ELECTIONS WITHIN 60 DAYS

WHEREAS, because of the numerous unresolved scandals involving the present administration, including but not limited to the “Hello Garci” Election controversy, the ZTE , North Rail Project, Diosdado Macapagal Highway scandals, the Joc-joc Bolante Fertilizer scam, Jose Pidal caper, hundreds of unresolved extra-judicial killings and the latest Malacañang Bribery Incident, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has completely lost her moral authority to govern this country;

WHEREAS, the GMA has lost public sympathy and support in the light of her tainted electoral mandate and her responsibility for the numerous controversies hounding her administration, as consistently shown by survey after survey conducted by reputable polling entities;

WHEREAS, Vice President Noli De Castro is a member of the Arroyo cabinet and is a beneficiary of the cheating perpetrated during the May 2004 Elections and is also considered to be a silent partner in crime of GMA not only because of his close personal association and unflinching support for GMA but also because of his failure to stand-up against and denounce the abuses and excesses of the Arroyo regime;

WHEREAS, the recent Glorietta bombing incident appears to be a signal for the more violent phase in the regime of GMA;

WHEREAS, the sham impeachment case filed by personalities connected with Malacanang effectively sabotages and ridicules the impeachment process;

WHEREAS, the only peaceful, legal and constitutional option available to the Nation under the circumstances and to prevent the situation from developing into a full-scale conflict or civil strife is for GMA and Noli De Castro to resign from their respective positions as President and Vice-President, of the Republic of the Philippines;

WHEREAS, the 1987 Constitution, under Section 10, Article VII, expressly provides that:

“Sec. 10. The Congress shall, at ten o’clock in the morning of the third day after the vacancy in the offices of the President and Vice-President occurs, convene in accordance with its rules without need of a call and within seven days enact a law calling for a special election to elect a President and a Vice-President to be held not earlier than forty-five days nor later than sixty days from the time of such call. Xxx.”

NOW, WHEREFORE, We the undersigned citizens, taxpayers and voters of the Republic of the Philippines, in our capacity as the true sovereign of the Nation, DO HEREBY:

1. Call upon Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and Noli De Castro to spare the country from further turmoil and violence by immediately resigning from their respective positions as President and Vice-President of the Philippines;

2. Demand the holding of a Special Presidential and Vice-Presidential Election within Sixty (60) Days from the date of the resignation of GMA and Noli de Castro, pursuant to Section 10, Article VII of the 1987 Constitution;

May God bless our Great Nation!

DONE in Metro Manila, Philippines on this 21st day of October 2007.

Hat tip to commenter Dr. D and Ellen Tordesillas.

Roundup: Reactions to the Erap Pardon

2007-10-27T20:06:00.000+08:00

I don't usually do roundups but what the heck:

Resty feels violated.
Arbet asks the EDSA Dos 'masterminds', Now What?.
Torn sees it as a a political loss for Erap and believes that some measure of Justice has been achieved.
Rom sees Erap as better off and predicts an eventual checkmate for Gloria.
Manolo Quezon III sees this as a defeat for the EDSA Dos supporters of Gloria Arroyo, and is hopeful that the clarity brought about by a potential Estrada-Arroyo alliance may finally bring together the EDSA and EDSA Dos veterans.
The Black and White Movement mourns yet another display of moral bankruptcy and issues a call to action.
Over at Ellen Tordesillas' blog, the usually united comments section displays an even more fascinating divergence than was displayed during Erap's conviction a month ago. For the Erap supporter, the conflicting emotions, a mixture of disappointement and steadfast hope, is evident. As commenter pnoynrs said:
"...this is a sad chapter in our history. sayang lang ang pakikibaka ng mga pilipino para kay erap yun pala hihingi sya ng pardon kay pandak but like my family and friends here, i’m still hoping that this is just the beginning of erap’s master plan for gloria’s removal from office..."
Hopes die hard.
The Daily Tribune lashes out at the anti-Erap Civil Society. Schumey takes up the defense. As i see it, the Tribune has turned up the volume to drown out their own shame at Erap selling out. It's not a proud moment for their leader. Erap is their cross to bear, not ours.
Interestingly, the Tribune's rant mirrors that of Bencard, a Gloria Arroyo supporter over at Manolo's comments section. While he opposed the pardon, he cannot bring himself to criticize Gloria Arroyo so he instead projects his anger at the most convenient targets who happen to be Arroyo's opponents. I believe there is a psychological term for this type of behavior.
Finally, in Manolo's comments section, Manuel Buencamino warns us not to get distracted:
"I was not going to allow Erap to distract me from the real task of fighting ongoing corruption to focus corruption that occured in the past. Why ignore the thief who is in the process of robbing your house to go after someone who can’t rob you anymore? Everything at its proper time dude."

An Update of a Classic

2007-10-26T04:08:00.000+08:00

As featured in a classic episode of The Simpsons:

Homer's Dream Car (1991)
As updated by Nissan:

Nissan Pivo 2 (2007)
Update Oct-26-2007 6:45PM: Those familiar with the evolutionary process realize that transformations like the one shown above are almost always not straightforward, often requiring intermediate steps. This principle also applies to the Nissan Pivo 2, which as the name indicates, is the second of its kind. Its immediate predescessor, the Nissan Pivo (shown below), fulfills the role of a transitional missing link, exhibiting a combination of traits seen in its ancestor as well as its descendant:

The Missing Link (2005)

Final Defeat for EDSA Dos

2007-10-25T23:05:00.000+08:00

Five weeks ago, i declared Final Victory for EDSA Dos. With the pardon of Erap by Gloria Arroyo, whatever victory we can claim for that revolution is gone. Commenter Mike over at Manolo's says it all:

"The pardon of Erap is the last straw. It makes a mockery of everything I fought for in 2001. It’s so clear and so glaring that we’ve been so thoroughly had. I’ve never been so sick to my stomach."

Ever since Hello Garci, it's been clear to me that the revolution has been betrayed. However, i suppose for many, this act drives home the point.

I guess now is also a time for the EDSA Tres crowd to reflect on whether this can be counted as a victory for their cause. Over at Ellen's blog, which i believe echoes the pulse of the Filipino majority, the prevailing sentiment so far is one of disgust at both Gloria and Erap. So it turns out that is one of the few times Gloria Arroyo has done something that has the effect of uniting the Country.

Shit Bombs: A Cross-country Comparison

2007-10-24T00:09:00.000+08:00

Shit Bomb-type blasts like the recent one in Glorietta are relatively rare, but have been known to happen before. Here is an account of one such event that took place in Ghana back in May 2004:

"The explosion which had the near force of a volcanic eruption was so loud that it was able to throw concrete, dust and human excrement (faeces) into the air, while residents ran for dear life from the force of the methane gas. The Pig Farm public latrine is one of a cluster of four toilets in the area. Six men were attending to nature’s call in the facility when it blasted. Eye witnesses say the blast caused the emission of strong fumes into the air."

The above description is instructive in that it englightens us on the cross-country variations of this kind of event. While the noise and force of the explosion are common elements to be found in both the Ghana and Glorietta deflagrations, there are also marked differences in terms of the composition of the blast debris and the fumes emitted.

What accounts for the relative lack of fecal matter found in the Glorietta incident compared to the Ghana-type event? I believe that the determining factor is cultural. While Ghanians presumably have a more up-front disposition as demonstrated by the relatively wide dispersal of their excrement, the typical Filipino with his well-known sense of "hiya" is more discreet. The resulting payload then embodies the character of its owners which explains why, in the course of the explosion, it chose to keep a low profile and stay in the basement lest it suffer undue embarrasment from public exposure.

Another obvious difference is in the nature of the fumes unleashed. Instead of the usual pozo negro smell that one would expect from a methane cloud, the Filipino shit bomb was characterized more by the smell of gunpowder. This can, of course, be attributed to hygienic practices, particularly the Filipino's penchant for regular brushing of teeth after every meal coupled with frequent washing of hair. As is well known, toothpaste and shampoo contain RDX, and the resulting build up of this explosive substance in the human body inevitably gets expelled into the sewage system. Seen in this light, the gunpowder smell can be easily accounted for.

For a more informative take on this topic, visit the opposing conjectures of Tounge-In-Anew who, for reasons of his own, still favors the bomb hypothesis, and DJB who prefers the apt-sounding deflagration hypothesis. Since these theories are mutually exclusive, it is safe to say that one will turn out to be full of shit.