Gaza

In solidarity with the people of Gaza. (Via 3Quarksdaily.)

Update Jan-2-2008: Via Crookedtimber, here's a Petition calling for an end to the violence. I hope you take the time to sign it.

If it has to be war...

...let's go about it the right way.

1. Those responsible for getting us into this predicament cannot be the same ones to lead us out of it. At the very least, no one deserves to die just to further their agenda. In the UK, for example, Neville Chamberlain had to be replaced by Winston Churchill.
2. Related to this, we need to strengthen the Philippine Military by purging it of officers who acted as hired bodyguards of the present leadership and reinstate those who embody its true ideals and know how to fight.
3. Instead of relying on private armies, vigilante groups, all those fighting on the government side should be regularized. This is to prevent the problem of having to deal with private warlord armies in the aftermath.
4. Any conflict would not be isolated to Mindanao, so prepare for a general mobilization. Consider conscription.
5. My fellow bloggers seem to be confident that the MILF does not represent the Muslim people and are no more than bandits. I'm not so sure but even granting that premise, the conduct of the war should be such that we take care not to make this a generalized Christian vs. Muslim conflict. It will be difficult to do this once bombs start going off in Manila, but the Government, Media and Civil Society groups (Secular, Christian and Muslim) should prepare for this. If necessary, laws against Hate Speech must be promulgated.

I'll add to the list if i think of anything else. Feel free to contribute in the comments section.

Cuban Missile Crisis Redux...

...that's what we could be in for if the United States and Russia miscalculate in their respective acts of brinkmanship in and around Georgia.

Source: BBC
The BBC reports that the US Military is going to deliver humanitarian aid to Georgia. While this is consistent with their past actions in Burma after Cyclone Nargis and in the Philippines after Typhoon Fengshen(Frank) where the Americans deployed their Navy for this purpose, doing the same thing in a situation where Russia is one of the belligerents has the potential to further destabilize the situation.

If matters deteriorate further, this time around, Fidel Castro's role* could be reprised by Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili.

Update August 17, 2008: US TV Network Fox News interviews Amanda Kokoeva, a 12-year old American girl visiting relatives in South Ossetia when the Georgian-South Ossetian war started. She clarified...

"...i just wanna say that i was running from Georgian troops bombing our city, not Russian troops. I wanna say 'thank you' to the Russian troops that were helping us out.".

(Hat tip: Antiwar.com.)

*As per Wikipedia, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, "In a personal letter to Khrushchev dated October 27, 1962, Castro urged him to launch a nuclear first strike against the United States if Cuba were invaded, but Khrushchev rejected any first strike response."

Terrorism as Fire Insurance

This early, there have been calls from fellow bloggers to pull together after yesterday's tragedy. Blogger Rom says that:

"A united response to the bombing is paramount to politics, however way you cut it."

DJB, who is one of the most predictable bloggers i've come across, is more emphatic:

"No matter what our opinions of her may be, I believe it is our duty as citizens to support the President and Commander in Chief in this dark hour that is increasingly beginning to look like a terrorist attack. I agree with her that this is a time for all of us to unite behind the authorities for the sake of the national security."

If it turns out JI, the CPP/NPA or the MILF did it, does that mean that we automatically rally behind the government of Gloria Arroyo? We've heard of cases where business owners, usually those who are losing money, set fire to their own shops to collect fire insurance. In the same way, beleaguered political leaders who have expended their political capital have been known to replenish their stock on the back of tragedies such as terrorist attacks. In this case, they collect their insurance in the form of "popular support" for "a united response" that is supposed to be "paramount to politics". It wouldn't take a Machiavelli to realize what lesson could be learned from this kind of dynamic.

An expected mass response of pulling together would lead to the classic problem of moral hazard, i.e.,

"...the prospect that a party insulated from risk (such as through insurance) will be less concerned about the negative consequences of the risk than they otherwise might be."

Does that mean that the government set the fire itself? Not necessarily, it would be premature to conclude that. However, the situation today can be likened to a case where you have roaming bands of arsonists. Given that terrorist threats are commonplace today, any President in a pickle and interested in self-preservation can simply relax his/her vigilance and let the terrorists do what comes naturally to them, knowing full well that the political windfall would go to him/her. He/she knows that in matters involving National Security where secrecy is involved, negligence is hard to detect.

Let's keep that in mind whenever someone finally tries to collect on his/her insurance.

Looking Back: Janeane Garofalo on the US Invasion of Iraq

Via Onegoodmove. Even for someone like me who opposed the US Invasion of Iraq, i'm amazed to what extent Janeane Garofalo's views back in February 2003 have been vindicated five years and one million Iraqi lives later.

BlackWater

Via Boingboing, this comic strip is too funny to pass up...although reality is far less funny. I wonder if any of its employees ever asked themselves "Are we the baddies?".

Civil War as Psychotherapy

I am disturbed at how often i hear Civil War being proposed by the very people who would most likely be its victims. Just the other day, commenter BrianB over at mlq3 sounded like a true Jacobin when he declared:

"Pare, France is a great place to live in because of the Terror. Besides, we have smarter people than Danton and Robespierre. People who know how to blog and look at their email."

Naturally, I was heartened when another commenter Devilsadvc8 responded:

"You’ll be surprised at how many “smart” people revert back to being barbaric when surrounded by evil. I believe Winnie Monsod called it Lucifer Effect (or something) That’s what happened to the French revolution. anger got out of hand, and fellow revolutionaries who showed a hint of sympathy with the enemies, were hanged along with them. it’s like the NPA purges. anything less than blind obedience (or great acting) would be branded as a betrayal of the cause... and btw, if this were to happen (an Bastille-like event), you think those who blog and email will be the ones leading it or the ones being dragged out into the streets? use your imagination man."

Nicely said, i thought to myself, which is why i was taken aback when on the very next day, the same Devilsadvc8 pretty much endorsed BrianB's idea from the day before:

"I believe civil war can do what everyone has failed to do. unite the survivors of that war in a common goal of correcting our past’s terrible effect on our psyche, and forging a new history for the Filipino people. spilling blood and fighting for a cause are what Filipinos need."

I have since had further exchanges with him over at that thread on the merits of this option. What i find specially curious is the commonly held belief in the supposed benefits of such an event on the Philippine national psyche. Back in 2005, another mlq3 commenter 'X' made a similar suggestion:

"you know ive been thinking about something similar to what the automechanic said. Perhaps is lies in the fact that the price we pay for our democracy is too cheap. assemble a few thousand people in Edsa, convince a few influential people to be there too and convince the military to join. it’s too easy.

unlike with bloodshed. it something that nobody wants to experience, and if we as a people carry some sort of baggage in our psyche about not wanting to have bloodshed again, perhaps FIlipinos would be more protective of TRUE democracy."

I really don't understand how they can assume that those are precisely the lessons that will be learned.

Update 08-11-2007: Devilsadvc8 provides a background on the circumstances that has led him to reach his above recommendation. [Devils, thanks for explaining your side.]