Monday, September 10, 2007

Philippine GDP Growth Patterns by Industrial Origin: 1Q 1991 to 2Q 2007

[Source: NEDA Economic Indicators: Gross National Product and Gross Domestic Product by Industrial Origin at Constant 1985 Prices]

The above slides show the GDP growth trends per sector of the economy. The red dotted-line plots the the year-to-year quarterly GDP growth rate (as represented by the Y-Axis) over a given time period (as represented by the X-Axis). Vertical lines demarcate the Administrations of Corazon C. Aquino ('Cory'), Fidel V. Ramos ('FVR'), Joseph E. Estrada ('Erap') and Gloria Macapagal Arroyo ('GMA'). The thick black horizontal line signifies the zero-percent (0%) mark. (On the diagram, click on the second arrow from the right to move forward to the next slide.)

Slide 1 Manufacturing: Manufacturing is the largest sector contributing 23% to total GDP in 2Q 2007. During the FVR Administration, this sector experienced both rapid acceleration and deceleration. After recovering during Erap's term, growth rate has so far remained flat during the Arroyo Administration.

Slide 2 Trade: Trade is the second largest sector comprising 17% of total GDP in 2Q 2007. The growth rate for this sector has been accelerating at a steady rate since the beginning of the Estrada Administration up to the present.

Slide 3 Agriculture and Fisheries: Agriculture and Fisheries which makes up 16% of the economy as of 2Q 2007 has exhibited a highly variable pattern of growth. At the aggregate level, no pattern of growth acceleration or decelaration can be detected regardless of the Administration.

Slide 4 Transportation, Communication & Storage: The Transportation, Communication & Storage sector, comprising 9% of total GDP in 2Q 2007, experienced its greatest growth acceleration during a major portion of the Ramos Administration. Since then, the growth rate in this sector has remained flat.

Slide 5 Private Services: Private Services, which also makes up 9% of GDP in 2Q 2007, has experienced accelerating growth which started in the first few years of the GMA Administration.

Slide 6 Finance: The growth rate of the Financial Sector started recovering from the Asian Financial Crisis during the tail-end of the Estrada Administration and the recovery has continued ever since. In 2Q 2007, this sector contributed 6% to the GDP.

Slide 7 Real Estate: The present growth rate of the Real Estate sector is at its highest within the period under consideration. It started accelerating early in the Arroyo Administration and has arrived at a plateau. In 2Q 2007, this sector contributed 5% to the GDP.

Slide 8 Construction: After peaking towards the middle of the FVR Administration, the growth rate of the Construction sector started to decline. Recovery started in the middle of Erap's Presidency and has continued up to the present.

Slide 9 Government Services: The growth rate in Government Services, which contributed 4% to the 2Q 2007 GDP, remained constant during FVR's time and declined during the Estrada Administration. Under GMA, it has resumed its upward trajectory and is now at its highest.

Slide 10 Electricity, Gas & Water: After peaking during the Ramos Administration, the growth rate of the Electricity, Gas and Water sector has remained constant throughout the Estrada and Arroyo administrations. This sector contributed 3% to the 2Q 2007 GDP.

Slide 11 Mining & Quarrying: The Mining and Quarrying sector comprises 2% of 2Q 2007 GDP. After remaining flat during previous Administrations, the growth rate of the sector has experienced an increase under Gloria Arroyo.

Slide 12 Forestry: Forestry, which is the smallest sector (contributing around 1/10 of one percent to GDP) has also experienced an acceleration of growth rate under the present administration.

The pie chart below gives a perspective on the relative contributions of each of the above sectors to the 2nd Quarter 2007 GDP.

[Source: NEDA (Click on image to enlarge.)

The fact that there have been no steep nor sustained declines in the growth rate in any of the sectors of the economy during GMA's time accounts for the comparatively healthy over-all GDP growth during this period. In order of importace, the past increases in GDP Growth rate has relied on the acceleration in growth rates of the Trade, Personal Services, Finance, Construction, Government Services, Mining & Quarrying and Forestry Sectors. On the other hand, the lack of acceleration in the growth rates of two out of the three biggest sectors, i.e. Manufacturing and Agriculture has discouraged further acceleration.


Anonymous said...

bgeieuSorry if I have never commented here before,CVJ,

Yun nga tulad ng napag usapan namin ni rego tungkol sa IC na largest export since 2001(even before)ngayon ganun pa din,at dati pa nga me garments ngayon halos wala na.

yung end ng term ni Ramos 97 crisis naman kaya we lost the toothpastes,the health cares like J&J,Colgate,Unlilever to the others.

And of course the service industry,to BPOs but not even a dent.

Again ,only the OFW remmmittances saved us,kahit na ayaw nila o nyo matatakan ng bagong bayani,aminin na natin na kayo ang nag save sa economy natin.

Comment about saving,that's what the chinese were good at,saving even in small amounts,pero sa atin we are consumption driven,to each his own.

Re:eltism: forget my comment about that.
day by day, I am beginning to answer my own question.

peo kung maiblog mo mas maganda.

Anonymous said...

"Slide 5 Private Services: Private Services, which also makes up 9% of GDP in 2Q 2007, has experienced accelerating growth which started in the first few years of the GMA Administration."

Does this include the services sector that find jobs for potential OFWs?

(Anna, MBW)

Unknown said...

Also with regard the increase in the real estate sector, what is the proportion of the OFW induced growth in the pattern, i.e., real estate development propped up by OFW purchases.

Would be good to know if only to see to what extent the OFWs are contributing to the wealth of those who are already wealthy".

Anonymous said...

I know the real estae sector is dominated by those already wealthy.
And their main target has been the OFWS,it is sometimes useless to run after the sales person because he might have probably resigned already.

It is easier to run after brokers who have licences.

Anna,correct,the rich becomes richer,unfortunately the statistics for that can only be shown by each particular realtors.. Like ayala land's yearend report or something.

I don't think its contribution to the GDP is only 5 %, but tose are the figures.

cvj said...

Hi Karl, thanks for dropping by. I'll also be interested in your take on elitism. BTW, i like the look of your resurrected blog.

Hi Anna, do you mean employment/recruitment agencies? I would think so, but i haven't studied the breakdown that closely. As for the OFW propping up the real estate sector, all i have is anecdotal evidence.

Anonymous said...

They own all the land:
di na pwede pang land reform dahil nme mga masterplan na sila,na pabagobago depende sa ihip ng hangin.

Land includes those deweloped for real estate

They own so much pati sa privatization gusto nila sila pa din ang mga bidder.Pero sila lang ang me kaya eh,pag di nila kaya,they coalese and form a strategic partnership.

And that is only about land:

Youve already heard my rants about the edsas ran by the elites or being taken advantage by the elites.

Our banking is also controlled by the elites,but our top three combined is nothing comapred to those of our neighbors.
On that part,I might agree with you that their presence is over rated.

That zte,even though its anopmalous who is the next qualified bider a dutch firm witha pinoy dummy with the likes of joey de venecia,again an elite.

here presence might be over rated and theri influence diminishing,but let us not idcount the fact that they still contribute to society.

cvj said...

Thanks Karl. I do believe that the elite can still save the situation if, collectively, they have a change of heart. That would also be the smart thing to do.