Messages and Manners

As guest of honor President Aquino made a speech at an anniversary dinner for TV Patrol, a long running  TV news show in the Philippines.   The President's speech featured criticisms specifically directed at the News Anchor, Noli de Castro who is a former top government official, serving as Vice President during Gloria Arroyo's term. 

The text of the speech (delivered in Filipino) is  available at the Official Gazette  and here's the  video.   

The President cited  three  instances where the News Anchor made negative side comments on news reports that were otherwise positive.  (In the text, you can read starting from the twelfth paragraph.)   

1. A news item on the 20 percent increase in arrivals at the Ninoy Aquino Internaional Airport Terminal Three (NAIA 3) was followed up by the News Anchor with a reference to the quality of Terminal One (NAIA 1).
2. A field report on the successful rescue of a kidnapped child was accompanied by the News Anchor's  speulations that perhaps the rescue was staged and that ransom was paid behind the scenes.
3. A field report on the successful negotiations between the government and transport groups (bus, jeepney operators and drivers) on  fare adjustments was followed up by a question by the News Anchor asking what are the gripes of these transport group against the President.

The speech concluded with warning on the costs (in terms of tourist arrivals and jobs) of the media peddling cynicism via negative portrayals of the news.  This plea would have been  standard (and expected) from any government administration in power were it not for the three concrete examples that the President cited above.

In the social media forums I've seen positive reactions on the President's fortrightness.  The negative reactions  I've read so far is not on the content of the speech but on the occassion on which it was delivered.  Those who hold this view assert that given that it was the TV News shows' anniversary dinner and given that the President was the guest of honor,  criticizing the host was in bad taste and displayed lack of manners.   I'm not the host of the dinner party so i cannot put myself in their shoes, but is lack of manners really such a compelling issue given the content of the message?

Updates 30-July-2012:

ABS-CBN has cautioned De Castro even before Aquino’s critique– insider

Veteran Blogger-Journalist Ellen Tordesillas gives a mixed review on President Aquino's speech.

Middle Class Revolt Against Democracy

With the benefit of hindsight, we can see that the Philippine Middle Class has served as the bellwether for two trends, the first being the advance of democratic reforms in the 1980's and 1990's, while the second is its subsequent retreat a decade later. The original EDSA People Power Revolution in 1986 which ended the Marcos dictatorship, heralded similar pro-democracy movements notably the Revolutions of 1989 that resulted in the collapse of Communism in Eastern Europe.

On the other hand, the second such People Power movement in the Philippines (aka EDSA Dos), while retaining the superficial characteristics of its predecessor, toppled a genuinely elected President, and is therefore considered by many as a reversal of democracy. Whatever the merits and demerits of EDSA Dos, the subsequent silence and rationalizations for inaction by the Philippine Middle Class when confronted with the reality of Electoral Fraud by the incumbent further validates its retreat from previous democratic aspirations. As this featured article observes, this Middle Class-led retreat from democracy is now a worldwide trend.

I believe that the main drivers for such a reactionary turn has been the ability of the poor to assert their numerical superiority to vote in their chosen candidate into Office, as has happened in Latin America's Electoral Revolutions. Unfortunately for the relatively fewer Middle Class, these chosen leaders either do not have their respect (as in the case of the late FPJ) or advocate policies that are perceived to be contrary to Middle Class interests (as in the case of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez or Bolivia's Evo Morales). What makes it easier for the Middle Class to turn away from democracy is the unfortunate fact that many among their ranks are afflicted with an Elitist Mindset and do not consider the poor as equals when it comes to the exercise of democratic rights. In Thailand, this sense of superiority has become the basis for the Thai democracy activists' logic as described by Randy David:

"What Thailand’s democracy activists say they are fighting for seems to be something more. They see the pursuit of democracy as the protracted struggle to organize the poor as empowered political subjects, to wean them away from their subjection as an army of docile voters activated purely by money and patronage. They are determined to keep at bay the traditional politicians that have preyed upon the ignorance and vulnerability of the Thai masses—by constitutional means if possible, or by extra-constitutional pressure if necessary."

These rationalizations are as self-serving as they are familiar. Over here, i expect that similar plans are underway to make the Philippine 2010 elections the last one that formally adheres to the principle of one-man/one-vote.

Related Entries:

• State Chart of Philippine Democracy: Future Scenarios.
  
• State Chart of Philippine Democracy: Status Update.

The Middle Class Way of Life...

...is fragile, and can only be preserved by choosing the right set of values and collectively defending them.

Invitation: Interfaith Prayer Rally

From the Black and White Movement:

HUWAG MATAKOT HANAPIN ANG KATOTOHANAN!

Tinatawagan ang publiko na lumahok sa malawakang INTERFAITH PRAYER RALLY na gaganapin sa Biyernes, ika-29 ng Pebrero, 4:30 p.m. - 8 p.m sa kanto ng Ayala Ave. at Paseo de Roxas, Makati.

Alinsunod ito sa panawagan ng CBCP at mga relihiyoso na magkaisa sa puspusang paghahanap sa katotohanan sa likod ng ma-anomalyang ZTE broadband deal at labanan ang katiwalian sa gobyerno.

Huwag tayo magpapaloko at magpapatakot sa mga kumakalat na balitang magkakagulo sa araw ng rally. Ang mga balitang ito ay gawa-gawa ng mga nais takpan ang katotohanan.

MAGKAISA TAYO SA PAGLALAKBAY SA LANDAS NG KATOTOHANAN TUNGO SA PAGBABAGO! SUMALI SA PRAYER RALLY SA MAKATI SA BIYERNES!

Update Feb-28-2008: Black and White Movement, together with Hyatt 10/La Salle 60, MBC, MAP, Manindigan, and other professional and church groups will assemble at the AIM (Paseo de Roxas) Parking lot at 3:00 PM.

Washington Sycip and The Rise of the Technocrats: A Reality Check

The Senate hearing featuring Jun Lozada has brought home the flaws of Washington Sycip's proposed technocrat-led government. A few weeks ago, Manolo Quezon pointed to Sycip's vision:

"...Although [Sycip] was cut short of advising that the government should do away with the elections as this will curtail the rights of the people to vote, Sycip said legislators should be stripped off the powers concerning the economic matters of the country.

This would mean the rise of the technocrats, who should be insulated from the politicians. [emphasis mine] These select people will run the country’s economy and will have the necessary powers to immediately effect change or react in cases of emergency, such as the recent move of the US Federal Reserve to cut its interest rates by three quarters of a percentage point.

Sycip, 87, said these technocrats should be given powers like those of the Bangko Sentral’s, that can either raise or ease interest rates immediately without getting the nod of Congress or consulting the President."

The above is a restatement of an earlier speech he gave to the Management Association of the Philippines where he pondered:

"Should we have an Asian model of democracy where economic and education matters are delegated to a group of technocrats that are insulated from politics? Can we expect an elected congress of politicians to respond to the rapid economic changes taking place in a flat world? After all an independent central bank, with little interference from politicians, seems to work quite well for our banking system."

The inspiration for the above model is of course Singapore where Lee Kuan Yew and his elite cadre have propelled that city-state to economic success.

The predicament of Jun Lozada shows us why a technocrat-led model may not be the right one for the Philippines. While technocrats like him may be competent enough to formulate and implement policies and programs in their given areas of expertise, they would still need to operate in an institutional environment where their competence can be channeled towards the good of the majority. Unfortunately, this is hardly the case. For one thing, Lozada pointed out that the Philippine government has a dysfunctional procurement system.

"The procurement system doesn’t really work. The process of procurement is tailoring the process to the supplier. We don’t look for the best supplier. It should be needs-driven, but now it is supply-driven. Also, there’s no check and balance."

Being the results-oriented technocrat that he is, Lozada then tried to reconcile himself to working with the system by personally deciding on a permissible zone of corruption, which is expressed as a certain percentage of the contract price. Outside this would be the forbidden zone. (I've heard this kind of rationalization a long time back from others, usually from my fellow professional types.) However, as is bound to happen, someone comes along to test the boundaries. If that person is influential enough, then the permissible zone continues to grow often at the expense of the technocrat(s) who originally set such boundaries, and who will then be replaced or overriden by other technocrats who possess larger permissible zones.

This brings us to another one of Sycip's misdirected, or at best incomplete, areas of concern. As seen from the first quote above, Sycip worries about legislative interference, but Lozada's testimony points to another source of interference coming from within the Executive Branch itself. This came in the form of rent-seeking behavior by Abalos who requested Lozada to 'protect' 130 million USD of the contract price and insisted in changing the nature of transaction from a Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) scheme to a Loan Arrangement. In his model, Sycip does not adquately address interference coming from this direction. His model also fails to acknowledge situation where the legislature (i.e. the Senate) is the institution that saves the people's money from corruption as in the case of the Senate investigations that led to the cancellation of the NBN/ZTE deal.

Lastly, while Sycip muses about having an "overdose" of democracy, it was actually the Media that saved technocrat Lozada's from his abductors (just as it saved Trillanes from a potential rub-out a few months ago).

In a nutshell, Jun Lozada's experience provides a lesson on how technocrats (or any 'select' group) would be forced to operate in an environment where the leadership is not accountable to the people. In such a situation, anyone who manages to survive a joyride with military-types would be coopted by the very politicians from whom they are supposed to be insulated.

Update Feb-09-2008 8:19PM: Solita Monsod (a former government technocrat herself), reserves her bitterest criticism towards Romulo Neri:

"I reserve my bitterest criticism for Neri. If Mike Arroyo will forever be associated with 'Back off!' Neri will be forever associated with 'Moderate their greed,' if not with the instructions to accommodate projects with powerful “political sponsors.” How could the chief of the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) put his imprimatur on what he knew from the beginning were flawed, overpriced projects, simply because they had powerful political sponsors? Where was his (and the NEDA’s) obligation to make sure that only projects with the highest economic rates of return would be undertaken? And, despite what he knew about the overpricing, how did he manage to calculate a rate of return of 27 percent? Some kind of abracadabra had to be used, because if I remember correctly, the project’s rate of return was originally below the threshold 15 percent level. That really means the NEDA evaluation process has been prostituted."

Interfaith Prayer Assembly Against a Morally Bankrupt Arroyo Administration

Forwarded invitation:

The events of the past weeks have shown in unmistakable terms the deep and intense political crisis that continues to engulf the nation under the current Arroyo administration.

The incident at the Manila Peninsula is a stern reminder that there are still unresolved issues of legitimacy, corruption, human rights abuses and unprecedented abuse of power under the guise of upholding the rule of law. While there may be varying opinions on the Manila Peninsula incident, it is clear that the issues raised were all too familiar. That various groups and personages continue to protest these issues is a clear manifestation that the ruling administration has done little to address them.

What is also disturbing is that the government's response to dissent has been more repression and threats addressed to the citizenry. The images of media workers being hauled like criminals - and the imposition of a curfew, the first since Martial Law - reminds us that repression remains the principal response to dissent under this administration.

And despite claims of growth and development, and the pretense of a "good economist" in Malacañang, many of our countrymen still cry out for economic justice; for land, better wages and decent services. The economic crunch has in fact dampened whatever remaining holiday cheer there may be.

The crisis has gotten worse with many of our people going abroad because they see no hope in our country. Unless the above issues are satisfactorily addressed, we can expect the same turbulence, desperation and frustration to mark the remaining years of this administration.

As the year comes to an end and a new one is imminent, we are again called to renew our commitment to truth and justice. We are again called to stand together to call for accountability in government. We stand firm in rejecting a morally bankrupt Arroyo government as we strive to achieve national unity and renewal.

JOIN US ON December 14, 4-7:00 PM IN AN INTERFAITH ASSEMBLY FOR THE NATION AT THE PLAZA SULAYMAN IN FRONT OF THE MALATE CHURCH , ROXAS BLVD.

Concept Paper of the Interfaith Assembly

The Interfaith Prayer Assembly for the Nation is the second activity of an emerging partnership between Catholic Bishops-Religious Leaders and Citizens Groups. The working relations started with discussions about the current national situation participated in by the various religious leaders and concerned citizens groups last November.

From the discussions came about a Unity Statement that was printed as a paid advertisement in a major daily. The statement called for the "rejection of a morally bankrupt government." Signatories to the statement also came together last November 30 to mark Bonifacio Day and trumpet the rejection call. Thousands joined the mass action at the Liwasang Bonifacio.

The same religious leaders and cause-oriented groups again convened to discuss the events that happened in the Manila Peninsula last November 29. There was common concern regarding the unresolved issues that continue to bring about the political crisis.

A proposal for an Interfaith Prayer Assembly came about as groups continue to express their strong rejection of the current bankrupt Arroyo administration. There is a need to come together once more and affirm our commitment to truth and justice and the decisive resolution of the issues of legitimacy, corruption, human rights abuses and abuse of power. The activity will also serve as a meaningful year ender as the various groups take stock of the achievements in the struggle for the past year and look forward to the challenges ahead.

What is the Interfaith Activity?

The Interfaith Prayer Assembly would involve various faiths and cause-oriented groups coming together in prayer and action for the nation. It would be a venue to express our common sentiments for change in the nation's leadership, a coming together of groups and personalities staunchly opposed to the current bankrupt leadership. The activity will follow the format of a prayer assembly (as opposed to the usual format of a rally).

What is the Theme?

The interfaith activity will reprise the earlier theme of standing together to reject a morally bankrupt administration. It is the broadest basis of unity so far achieved among the religious leaders and various citizens groups. The activity will call on the people to intensify the fight for the decisive resolution of the outstanding issues against the Arroyo administration and for the advancement of meaningful reforms. It is a statement that we vow to relentlessly pursue the fight next year.

Who are the Participants?

All are invited to attend. Aside from the convening groups, we expect participants from all walks of life, all faiths and denominations and various cause-oriented groups.

When and Where will it be Held?

The activity will be held outdoors at the Sulayman Plaza, in front of the Malate Church, Roxas Boulevard on December 14, from 4-7:00 PM.

The Phillippine Middle Class Plays Machiavelli

Over at Manolo's Victory of the New Society thread, I have been having a discussion with commenter 'Silent Waters'. My latest response has gone 'under moderation' so i'm reposting it here. (To follow the discussion, you may need to refer back to Manolo's thread starting here.)

"I think that reality dictates that we accept FOR NOW, the situation wherein the elites will protect their interest. and the middle class have become expedient. That should be the framework to come up with a strategy to fix the problem." - Silent Waters

My response: Fixing the problem involves dismantling that framework. It is in our interest to establish a different framework based on fair play and genuine democratic values because the Middle Class does not have the resources or numbers to play Machiavellian games.

"Your ideas are good in the theoretical world where everybody will be the goody two shoes you expect them to be. Fact is, they’re not." - Silent Waters

My response: Bayanihan is not a theoretical concept. If you think it is in our interest to sustain an environment that is hostile to the 'goody two shoes' (i.e. decent folks), then i think you should review your kind of 'realism'.

"As for the last part, look at what Dr. Martin Bautista did? Di naman siya kilala, middle class din siya, pero he did try. And I know for sure, he will try again. Now that is walking the walk and not just talking the talk." - Silent Waters

My response: I agree, which is why i voted for Martin Bautista and will most likely vote for him again. However to boost his chances, his supporters (like you and me) should be seen to be living his values (of justice and fair play) and not tolerating an unjust framework based on expediency.

The Peninsula Standoff

Liveblogging by DJB and Schumey. Also by Manuel Buencamino.

Ellen Tordesillas is in the thick of things.

I salute our new heroes led by Senator Antonio Trillanes IV...
	...and General Danilo Lim.

Update 12-01-07: A piece of up-close blogger journalism by Jego.

Pakistan to Return to Civilian Rule

Back in the late 80's when we were being subjected to Honasan's coups, a local TV sitcom spoofed a victorious military junta giving a press conference:

"Reporter: Sir, when will we return to civilian rule?
Junta leader: When we retire.
Reporter: Please clarify.
Junta leader: After we retire, we will then become civilians, so by then you'll all be under civilian rule."

Looks like this Pakistani general also followed Philippine sitcoms. Congratulations Pakistan, (i think).

November 9, 2007: Postcards for Gloria Day

Click on image to enlarge
Similar activities are also planned overseas. Details can be found here and here. For further updates, visit the Black and White Movement's blog. As Manolo reminds us:

"...in small yet meaningful ways, resistance is what’s called for these days...not by blowing things up or giving the authorities the satisfaction of beating us up, or, God forbid, inconveniencing those who value the smooth traffic flow more than they care about the disappearance of Jonas Burgos, or inconveniencing the congressmen in cassocks known as the Catholic bishops. So what can we do, that allows us to be considerate of the politically blind, but which will show that we are aware, awake, and not in awe of the authorities?

Consider that the prime message of the government that adores your tax pesos so it can serve up cash buffets in the presidential palace you own, is this: they are all the same. This is meant to discourage your thinking of alternatives, because if all the alternatives are like what we have, better the devil in the duster you already have, to any other devil waiting in the wings. But this argument is only good as long as you agree that indeed, you are like them: that when they say they are all the same, they include you.

Are you really like them? Is the congressman or governor waddling out of Malacañang with a doggie bag full of money, the same as you? Of course not. When they shriek, “let he who is without sin, cast the first stone,” they forget the number of guests at the cash buffet didn’t include millions like yourself. But OK, let’s not cast stones. Let’s send something peaceful but equally painful: words on postcard."

Update Nov-19-2007: Pictures of the postcard i sent last November 9 (needed help to upload - thanks Pimpuk!)

Selectorate Theory: Implications of Political Legitimacy on Governance

Urbano de la Cruz points to a fascinating body of work by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita. You can read more about it here. Browsing through an online copy of de Mesquita's book The Logic of Political Survival, I stumbled upon this neat diagram on page 130 that summarizes the core predictions of Selectorate Theory:

A detailed explanation of the various aspects of the diagram can be found in the book itself. What i would want to focus on is on what the above diagram has to say about the issue of Gloria Arroyo's lack of political legitimacy and the prospects of good governance given her lack of legitimacy. This involves understanding the concepts of a Leader's Discretionary Funds and the gap between the Selectorate and the Winning Coalition

Leader's Discretionary Funds: The book defines kleptocracy as something more than mere corruption. Rather, it is "outright theft of a nation's income by its leaders". It goes on to say that:

"The opportunity to engage in kleptocracy - while retaining one's position as an incumbent - is determined by the difference between the revenue available to a government and the expenditures made by the government. Whatever is left over from the two quantities is money available for the discretionary use of incumbent leaders."

Gap between Selectorate and the Winning Coalition: As per the Wikipedia entry on Selectorate Theory:

"The Selectorate is simply those within the state that have a say in policy outcome (in the United States, for example, it would be all citizens over the age of 18 eligible to vote). The Winning Coalition is a proportion of the Selectorate sufficient to choose and sustain a leader in office."

Under the Philippine Electoral System, the Selectorate consists of the pool of eligible voters while, in theory, the Winning Coalition is the proportion of voters who choose the President, which at least since 1992, has been a plurality.
(to be continued)

Indomitable Apathy and The New Normal

A few months ago, blogger Dave Llorito proclaimed that "we have become a normal country with very normal problems...And that’s great!". The other day, the same blogger almost became a victim of the Glorietta Blast. I'm glad he's ok, but i wonder if last Friday's incident still falls within the range of what he considers "very normal problems". IMHO, he should.

This is precisely the kind of normalcy our Society would arrive at given the Middle Class' muted reaction to the political leadership's ongoing acts of impunity. Twenty months ago, over at mlq3's blog, commenter Geo recounted how the "middle class, white collar, technocrat entrepreneurs" lashed out at the Black and White Movement for "forcing the middle classes to the brink".

"I have just spent two full days and nights at the e-Services exhibition/seminar (for the BPO industry) — which was full of middle class, white collar, technocrat entrepreneurs and SME’s — and everyone I met was complaining about the negative effects the extremists have created for the Philippines’ best ever economic opportunity.

Lots of venom, especially for the B&W gang — the 'middle forces who are forcing the middle classes to the brink' was one line I caught. I’m sure if Bill Luz’s name was brought up, more scathing remarks would have ensued...

...A huge high-margin multi-billion dollar industry that is inherently pro-people, decidedly non-A/non-upper B class, beneficial to the second-tier cities…and which all global analysts say is perfectly suited for the Philippines (ranked as 1st or 2nd in the world for a variety of BPO sub-sectors). This industry alone could raise the economic welfare of the country and help expand the middle class quickly and substantially.

And all the parties concerned kept talking about how they wished all the political BS could just go away and let the administration continue it’s policies.

To tell you the truth, I was shocked. All along I thought I was in the minority…with elloi, joey, acidboy and carl. But wow, there are a lot of intelligent, incredibly hard-working, stay-in-country, build-the-country types out there who think along the same lines as we few posters have.

Too bad the noise has overshadowed the great efforts and capabilities that “regular folk” bring to the party.

Based on my knowledge and experience in the global economy and the global marketplace, I continue to believe that this is the last chance for the Philippines to pull itself out of the fire. It’s now or never. And it would be so sad for everyone if the opportunity is squashed because of a loud few who want to “search for the truth” and destroy the nation with their empty, anti-constitutional and hypocritical blathering (not to mention the opposition politicians and their wild goose chases when the TV’s red light is on).

mlq3 — I, too, like you and respect you. But I fear you are getting carried away. Are you thinking with your heart? Isn’t the analyst supposed to feel with his heart and think with his brain? I have read that you might now think that Lacson could be the answer? Back off and come down from the ledge, my friend…please. The nation needs you to be clear and thoughful; to be a leader, not a destroyer.

Pls excuse my rant. I try to avoid them. My heart just hurts so much after seeing the worry lines on the usually optimistic faces of the fearless Pinoy entrepreneurs…and hearing the foreign investors’ negative words about coups and irrational politics while they concurrently effused the attractions of 'what the Philippines can be; is…but isn’t'.

Let’s just all ship our money and our hopes to India; let’s just all throw away our future. Later, we can ask: 'Why did we do that?'…and spend endless hours blaming one another. A-yay-yay.

Time to wake up and smell the coffee, folks. It’s now or never. Now vs Never — You choose. - Geo at February 17th, 2006, 10:55 pm "

So in the name of economic stability, these businessmen and professionals decided to look the other way. What these otherwise decent folks of the Middle Class did not realize (and probably still do not) is that the existence of a Public Sphere that keeps the State accountable is in their self-interest. If Society were likened to the human body, the Black and White Movement and other such groups function as the Middle Class' immune system.

We in the Middle Class have an important stake in supporting such Civil Society groups because, as i pointed out to blogger Big Mango before:

Unlike the upper class, we do not have the resources. Unlike the poor, we do not have the numbers. The only thing we can offer are our values. According to conventional wisdom, it is the middle class that defines the nation. Where our values go, our country goes. Let's not throw these away in the name of expediency.

True, because of Civil Society groups' protest activities, just like the human body, our Society may run a fever, but it would be foolish to mistake the fever itself as the problem and lash out and make fun of these groups as Geo and like-minded members of the Philippine Middle Class have done. Now it's their turn to wake up and smell the coffee. They (and we) are now reaping the rewards of such expediency. We have now arrived at a point where the State, which is supposed to protect our way of life, can no longer be excluded from the list of prime suspects*.

Still, this realization that the State is controlled by thugs has not prevented members of the middle class from displaying what commenter Cogs in Torn & Frayed's blog labeled as the Filipino's spirit of indomitable apathy. Over at Manolo's, blogger JC John SESE Cuneta was of the opinion that we should leave the truth where it is:

"...Granted, there’s a conspiracy, the government did planted that bomb, but also granted, we will never know it. So what now? We’ll keep living everyday trying to solve something that was hidden well and revolve around it forever?

The truth will come in its due time, when it does, we need to make sure that we are a Nation capable of handling such (grave) truths. Maybe the truth chose not to reveal itself today because it will only cause more problems for our country - another People Power or perhaps Martial Law or worst, a Civil War? We won’t be able to handle the truth today..." - JC John SESE Cuneta at October 20th, 2007, 2:05 pm

That's the spirit. Perhaps, it's true what commenter hvrds said...

"We allow small acts of evil as long as it is far from affecting us and it starts to have a life of its own and this apathy allows it to come right to our doorstep."

...in which case, welcome to the new normal.

*Hat tip to Manolo for the links.

Invitation: A Black & White Truth Forum on Recent Events

An invitation from the Black and White Movement.

(click on image to enlarge)
Confirmed guests: Bishop Teodoro Bacani, Jose de Venecia III, Carlos Conde (Media, NUJP), Mon Casiple (IPER).

EDSA Tres and the Filipino Majority

Ten days ago over at Manolo's, i made the following comment...

grd, to me mlq3’s blog site roughly* represents the sensibilities of the EDSA Dos crowd which has fragmented to different camps because of Gloria’s illegitimacy. ellen’s site roughly* represents EDSA Tres and therefore the Filipino majority. Our nation can only move forward if both sections of our society engage in an honest dialogue, but that can only be built on an atmosphere of mutual respect. As it is, i see that many over here still subscribe to your (and Benign0’s) attitude of refusing to empathize and understand and instead assuming an air of unwarranted superiority. Just as One Voice is supposed to reunite the EDSA Dos crowd, there should be an equivalent attempt to do so between EDSA Dos and EDSA Tres camps. As it is, post election dynamics seems to be going the opposite direction.

* Please note emphasis on the ‘roughly’.

...to which Rom reacted:

"cvj:just a minor quibble - edsa tres cannot represent the majority of the nation, whether numerically or ideologically."

I promised an explanation so i did some research. I got hold of this book that Manolo recommended two weeks back and this in turn led me to the Pulse Asia’s October 2005 Ulat ng Bayan Survey Report: Media Release on People Power. The survey reports on the in EDSA, EDSA Dos and EDSA Tres. As shown in the table below, for the latter, it was at around 2 percent nationwide:
Source: Pulse Asia
Two percent of the adult (over 18) population is around 1 million, clearly not a majority but we already knew that. The real question is, how much support did the crowd have? This is answered by the survey question on the level of support for such a mass action which according to the table below is eight percent nationwide:

Source: Pulse Asia
Eight percent is about eight million, again clearly not a majority. To cross-validate this data, we can use the votes given to Loi Ejercito Estrada during the May 2001 elections as proxy for support of EDSA Tres which is at 10.5 million.

Therefore**, linking the EDSA Tres crowd to the majority does not stand up to scrutiny. On this assertion, I stand corrected. Whatever electoral majority that the Opposition achieved in the recent elections has sources other than (or in addition to) that particular People Power event.

** Assuming the above survey results are representative of the general population and subject to the margin of error.

Pirate Governance and Self-Dealing

I learned a new word today - "self dealing" which is an apt term to characterize Manny Villar's recent actions. In his New Yorker article, James Surowiecki introduces this word and describes how Pirates (as in 'Pirates of the Carribean') adopted a system of governance to discourage such behavior. Towards the end of the article, he reaches the following conclusion:

"pirate governance, peculiar as it may sound, offers an intriguing example of how limits on executive power can actually make an enterprise more successful and, because workers are convinced they’re being treated fairly, can deepen their commitment."

Read the rest here.

(Hat tip to Marginal Revolution.)

Update (12:06pm): Just occurred to me, we have seen how mutiny can come about as a result of the leadership's self-dealing.

Sellout

A lot has already been said about the reported alliance between the supposedly Genuine Opposition(GO) Senators Villar, Cayetano, Escudero, Jinggoy Estrada with their pro-Administration counterparts in the battle for the Senate Presidency. The Black and White Movement has issued its Urgent Appeal. Other bloggers (here and here) have done so as well. Manolo Quezon while gallantly trying to put things into context, likewise criticized the actions of the Senators as the wrong kind of addition. Ellen Tordesillas who has supported the GO candidates through thick and thin likewise expressed her disappointment especially with Alan Peter Cayetano. In a series of comments, i believe blogger (and Ellenville regular) Yuko Takei, best reflects the sentiment of the majority who voted for the opposition:

"...Villar, et al should not forget that the reason why the Filipinos voted for them was to oppose the creeps from succeeding in abolishing the Senate with the creeps bent on establishing a unicameral legislative under a monarchy with the criminal promising her supporters most probably this and that title if they help her fulfill her ambition to be queen...

...Let’s face it. Malacanang had Plan B, and it has succeeded with its plan to break up the Opposition because Binay had not been wiser NOT to include the likes of Villar, with or wiithout the consent of Erap. I had a feeling something like this would happen and why I was reluctant to accept Villar, Pangilinan and even Legarda as a matter of fact, but pakikisama, I promoted GO in Japan with emphasis on Trillanes.

Doon lang nga nakatimbog si Binay kay Trillanes, who has proven to be the only genuine opposition. Thanks to the 11M enlightened Filipinos who voted for him and proved what they could in fact do and achieve. They will surely remember that. By 2010, their number will not just double but triple, etc...

...I felt betrayed especially regarding Cayetano, but it’s OK. Maaga mas mabuti! You should not feel confused and defeated, too. We can fight as a matter of fact to avenge ourselves!!!"

By failing to demonstrate purity of intent, the crisis of representation continues. The actions of our newly elected Opposition Senators' is one more blow to representative democracy in the Philippines, another failure of the principal-agent relationship between the voters and the elected. Starting at least with Erap's election in 1998, the faith of the people in our restored democracy has taken a beating and the recent shortsighted actions of these young and once promising new breed of Senators is one more step in this continuing loss of credibility.

Update 6:40PM: Over at Ellen's, commenter Sampot voices out a sentiment that i believe will be increasingly popular in the wake of this fiasco:

"The last election is my last.

In fact i was hesitant then to participate because politics in this country seems like a roller coaster ride.

Yesterday, it’s the Filipino Voter who doesn’t seem to know how to choose a candidate. Today, it’s the winning candidate who doesn’t seem to know how to choose between the interests of the people against his own.

These people are not only offered Committee Chairmanships but Cabinet Positions.

I can hardly remember who once said this, “My loyalty to the party ends, where my loyalty to the people begins.”

Why can’t we accept the fact that the solution is beyond routine flock to the precincts? We need to dismantle the whole system and establish a Caretaker Government.

The only reason why i did participate in the last elections was Trillanes."

It's interesting that the credibility of our democracy is now in the hands of an alleged coup plotter. Personally, i don't believe a 'caretaker' government is a step in the right direction since Filipino leaders get too easily drunk with power, but such desperation is understandable.

Willy Prilles on Variants of Populism

In his second post about New Public Management (NPM), Willy Prilles distinguishes between two kinds of populism:

"1. politics unfavorable to elite: politics or political ideology based on the perceived interests of ordinary people, as opposed to those of a privileged elite; and 2. focus on ordinary people: focus or emphasis on the lives of ordinary people, e.g. in the arts and in politics."

He then tackles the question on whether the Robredo administration in Naga is populist:

"It will depend on which meaning of populism one uses: it definitely is not if the label carries the first meaning, which essentially demonizes the elite. In this case, such a divisive rhetoric is actually an exercise in hypocrisy as the entire leadership, comprised mostly of specialists with high degree of education, in fact belong to the elite.

But if populism were to take the second meaning, then the administration is certainly populist -- by virtue of creating innovative mechanisms through which ordinary people's social, political and economic needs are addressed more effectively."

I highly recommend reading the entire entry. (I also recommend that you download the linked PowerPoint presentation of Mayor Robredo.)

Just a few observations:

(1) The attitude that Luis Leonardo (one of the fellow participants of Willy Prilles in the NPM Seminar) exhibits i.e. his willingness to trade off productivity for hunger, as well as...
(2) the presence of exemplars of NPM among Local Government Units (LGU's) and the corresponding lack of at the National Level (as stated in Mayor Robredo's PowerPoint presentation)...

...are further manifestations of the trifucation of the State.

Update (05-03-2007 9:15pm): Willy Prilles reports that Mayor Robredo has been disqualified from running for reelection by the Comelec. Just goes to show what's in store in terms of good governance under the present dispensation as well as the limits of a trifurcated state. I hope the people of Naga don't take this travesty lying down. I can't but help think though that this kind of abuse would not have happened if men and women of goodwill have not given too much slack to the current occupant of Malacanang. Without vigorous opposition at the outset, impunity has a way of catching on and catching up.

Authoritarianism: What is it Good For?

Tyler Cowen of marginalrevolution gives his take on Bong Austero's bargain* in response to this question - "Is authoritarianism excusable or permissible - for any length of time - if it is justified by a need for economic growth/reform (e.g. Lee Kwan Yew, Pinochet, Park Chung Hee)?"

You can read it here. From the comments section, i learned of a Nigerian proverb - "He whose head is used to open the coconut does not get to participate in the eating."

As for me, i have given my views on what authoritarianism (in the Philippine setting) may be good for in this comment over at mlq3's which i am reproducing in part below:

"If we were to map the various combinations of democracy/dictatorship and elitist/populist arrangements, i would rank the following from best to worst (with corresponding role models identified) as follows**:

1. Populist Democracy - the ideal arrangement from a political and economic standpoint. Possible Role Models: India, Brazil, Chile, Venezuela, Bolivia etc.
2. Populist Dictatorship - good track record for economic take-offs Possible Role Models: China (Phase 1 Mao's revolution, Phase 2 Deng's reforms) and Vietnam (Phase 1 Ho Chi Minh, Phase 2 'Doi Moi' Reforms). Negative Role Model: Zimbabwe under Mugabe
3. Elitist Democracy - where we are now. Other countries: Russia
4. Elitist Dictatorship - where Gloria and her middle class supporters want to take us. Role Model: Singapore. IMHO, this option sucks."

If it ever has to come to a dictatorship***, from the above you can guess whose heads i would prefer to use as coconuts.

*"we are prepared to lose our freedoms and our rights just to move this country forward." - Bong Austero
**I have speculated on how these various situations may come about in a previous post.
***Which i've repeatedly made clear i do not want to happen.

Latin American Electoral Revolutions and People Power Revolutions Compared

Here's more background information on Scenario 4 that was described in last week's post in the form of an article by Tatiana Zhurzhenko in the June 26, 2006 edition of Eurozine comparing the Velvet Revolutions (i.e. EDSA-type People Power events) with the recent wave of Latin American electoral revolutions:

On the Velvet (People Power-type) revolutions:
"the revolutions of 1989 put forward no grand project or social utopia, as was the case with their predecessors. Their only project was to catch up with a "normal" social and political order, in other words market society and liberal democracy. "

On the Latin-American electoral revolutions:
" If what happened in Bolivia can be called a revolution, it was a socialist and working-class revolution, supported, classically, by the poorest and most marginalized part of the population. "

Over here, having experienced our own velvet-revolution(s) which restored and upheld market society and liberal democracy, the middle class is reluctant to allow the Latin-American variety to happen, for fear of what they might lose. This would explain why they foolishly cling to Gloria Arroyo. Like Tim Yap*, they just want the party to continue.

On this same subject, sometime last year, i also had an interesting discussion in mlq3's blog with fellow commenter juan makabayan where he traced the roots of Latin America's leftward turn to liberation theology. He remarked that:

"in latin america, particularly Nicaragua and El Salvador, liberation theology, complementing the communist ideology, played a key role before, during and after the revolution. similar but not same is the scenario here."

He also added:

"The Doctrine of Liberation theology may have been repudiated but its spirit remains strong in latin america for it is ingrained in the ‘basic ecclesiastical communities’(bec’s) that were founded when the doctrine fused the people and the church, the temporal and divine in a militant struggle for the Kingdom.

You know what?

The development and strengthening of the bec’s is actually ‘the’ real revolution. Our current social crisis is a reflection, manifestation, indication of the state of development of bec’s. If we refresh our notion (google) of basic ecclessiastical communities (protestants: basic christian) we’ll realize its relevance to the social changes that we hope for and blog about."

The above was a useful insight by Juan Makabayan which also explains why priests and social workers are being lumped together by the current Administration and its apologists with the CPP/NPA.

*Hat tip to Expectorants for the pointer.

State Chart of Philippine Democracy: Future Scenarios v1.1

Updated the diagram to reflect Scenario 7 i.e. the tendency of popular dictatorships to transform into elite dictatorships with the passage of time.

This explanation by Manolo Quezon, which brings up the risks of infiltration by radical elements of the unicameral assembly (which supplied one of the reasons for the establishment of the Senate during Manual Quezon's Presidency), is one of the ways in which Scenario 3 below, can come about. The difference is that in a parliamentary set-up, the radicals will be in a position to elect the national leadership.