Tuesday, March 20, 2007

Estimated Foreign Debt Payments: 1987 to 2005

To get a rough estimate of how much foreign debt has been paid from 1987 to 2005, we can add to the foreign debt in 1986 the borrowings from 1987 to 2005 and then subtract the value of debt as of 2005.

At the time Marcos left in 1986, Foreign debt was at USD 28 Billion*. The equivalent of this amount in 2005 would be USD 78 Billion**, . The total foreign borrowings from 1987 to 2005 is USD 49 Billion***. Foreign Debt at 2005 (end of period) is USD 54 Billion****.
Foreign debt in 1986 (equivalent dollar value in 2005)78 Billion
Add: Foreign Borrowings 1987 to 200549 Billion
Less: Foreign debt in 200554 Billion
Estimated Principal Payments 1987 to 200573 Billion
Add: Estimated Interest Payments 1987 to 2005 29 Billion*****
Estimated Principal & Interest Payments 1987 to 2005102 Billion

Among other things, the above shows that for the past two decades, for every dollar we borrowed, we have paid out two dollars (49 billion vs. 102 billion). (Update 03-21-2007: On second thought, including interest payments to the year 2005 equivalent values may be a form of double counting, in which case, the comparison should be between 49 billion and 73 billion, which means 1.5 dollars paid out for every dollar borrowed.)

Update 08-13-2008: Related updates from the PCIJ.

*Source: IBON Facts & Figures 2005 Volume XXVIII
**as computed in measuringworth.com
***sum of borrowings from 1987 to 2005 as computed from here
****Source: BSP Website
*****estimated at 40% of annual principal payments as derived from BSP website

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