As mentioned in this blog entry from last week, one of the sources of the World Bank's Governance Indicators is an outfit called Business Environment Risk Intelligence (BERI). As stated in this review:
" BERI is known in political risk for having trumped all competitors, including the Economist Intelligence Unit...in an academic study of the accuracy of various country analysis firms' risk ratings."
Below are extracts of the Most Probable Political Scenario from the Busines Risk Service reports published from April 2004 to December 2006*:
April, 2004: "President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo fails to restore fiscal order. The budget deficit, having received no drastic action in 2003 because of the insurgency war becomes a problem in 2004-2005. The government's popularity is diminished by the threat of bombings and kidnappings, but before the 10 May 2004 election, economic growth results in more job creation, and the incumbent wins reelection. Subsequently, the instability and use of American troops causes periodic demonstrations. The power structure, including senior officers and the business elite, continue to support her in her second term. The decrease in crony capitalism and corruption is apparent, and the administration's economic management becomes more decisive in 2005. The Philippines adopts some economic reforms, and foreign investment beigins to flow into the economy, assisting recovery from weak demand in key export markets." [Source: Business Risk Service 2004-I]
August 2004: Gloria Macapagal Arroyo "...having won reelection fails to restore fiscal order despite promises of reform. The budget deficit, having received no drastic action in 2003 because of the insurgency war becomes a problem in 2004-2005. The government's popularity is diminished by the threat of bombings and kidnappings, but economic growth results in more job creation. The power structure, including senior officers and the business elite, continue to support the President in her second term. The Philippines adopts some economic reforms, and foreign investment begins to flow into the economy, assisting recovery from weak demand in key export markets." [Source: Business Risk Service 2004-II]
December 2004: Gloria Macapagal Arroyo "...fails to improve the fiscal situation despite adopting unpopular tax increases. Poverty and rising prices add to public frustration. Terrorist incidents weaken security and contribute to declining popularity of the government. Foreign relations with the U.S. are stilll captive to the country's decision to withdraw troops from Iraq. The administration takes advantage of its majority in the Senate and passes key measures to reduce corruption and bureaucracy. Consequently, foreign investment begins to increase and buoy economic growth. The country increases its attractiveness as an offshore outsourcing destination but is unable to challenge India's dominance in the field. Relations with China strengthen in the next two years." [Source: Business Risk Service 2004-III]
August 2005: Gloria Macapagal Arroyo "...steadily loses popularity and fails to prove conclusively that no wrong-doing occurred in the May 2004 presidential election. Sentiment against the President among politicians and voters is so strong that she can no longer govern. Although she resists resigning in 2005, she has no other choice and leaves office in early 2006. As was the case in January 2001 when Joseph Estrada was deposed by the Supreme Court and Vice President Macapagal Arroyo became president, Vice President Noli de Castro replaces Mrs. Macapagal Arroyo. No military action or bloodshed occurs during the transition in Manila. The Supreme Court, citing probable irregularities in the May 2004 presidential contest, orders a new election in mid-2006. The House of Representatives continues to conduct business and passes measures to prevent the abuses of power that caused the downfall of Mrs. Macapagal Arroyo." [Source: Business Risk Service 2005-II]
December 2005: Gloria Macapagal Arroyo "...survives opposition attempts to depose her, weakened by the 158-51 impeachment vote in her favor, but her popularity remains low. National security threats temporarily boost Mrs. Arroyo's support, and her anti-terror bill is accepted in the Congress. Dissent also decreases with large-scale job formation and reduced unemployment. Sporadic attacks take place against security forces throughout the country, and a large-scale terrorist attack occurs during 2006-2007. Relations with Washington, D.C., improve in this period despite factions lobbying for a government change in Manila." [Source: Business Risk Service 2005-III]
April 2006: Gloria Macapagal Arroyo "...survives current opposition attempts to unseat her but fails to complete her term, scheduled to end in 2010. Congressional elections strengthen the oppostion in 2007 because Ms Arroyo continues to lose popularity. A growing number of demonstrations take place, and defectors within the administration increase. The government enhances security measures in an effort to prevent a potential terror attack. President Arroyo uses the opportunity to consolidate her position through curtailment of freedoms, but this causes further dissent. Eventually, she is forced to resign, and early presidential elections are held." [Source: Business Risk Service 2006-I]
August 2006: Gloria Macapagal Arroyo "...survives additional attempts to force her out of office during 2006-2007 despite constant pressure from the opposition. However, Mrs. Arroyo does not complete her term in 2010, succumbing to public pressure rather than opposition efforts to unseat her. Although Mrs. Arroyo continues to lose voter popularity, the governing party, Lakas-CMD, wins a plurality in 2007 congressional elections. The government remains alert to possible terrorist attacks, increasing security measures. Peace discussions are attempted, but the administration continues a military offensive against Communist guerillas in the south." [Source: Business Risk Service 2006-II]
December 2006: Gloria Macapagal Arroyo "...survives attempts to force her out of the office, but her power is visibly weakened as a result of the efforts. Ms Arroyo has the support of the military, but she decides to step down on her own before her term concludes in 2010. Lakas-CMD, the governing party, manages to keep a plurality in the House elections during May next year. Constitutional reform measures are discussed, but progress is minimal. The Philippines takes new measures to thwart potential terror attacks and is generally successful. However, political assassinations increase in number. The military offensive against the Communist guerillas continues in 2007-2008."
Noted without comment (for now). You can judge for yourself their accuracy in making forecasts.
*Except for April 2005, a copy of which i couldn't find.