Interview with Captain Faeldon (Part 4 of 4)

Captain Faeldon emphasizes the need not to be career-oriented:

"...when you think of your career as your number one consideration...everything you do is in preparation for a next promotion, for a higher achievement, and that compromises public service..."

He says that this is the problem with other soldiers i.e. their being too career oriented.

Again, he emphasizes that he will never run for any electoral positon and will never accept any appointive position.

Captain Faeldon says that the most difficult thing he has done is to set his mind to the the worst case scenario...

"Any proponent of ideas [that they think] could eventually survive, and remove them [from their comfort zone]...they will not allow that to happen"

...and says that if he dies fighting and holding on to his beliefs, then he'll be satisfied.

Interview with Captain Faeldon (Part 3 of 4)

In this segment, Capt. Faeldon emphasizes that a political leader is supposed to understand that, "you are supposed to serve [the public]...you have no power over them, you are their servant".

In the most cryptic part of the interview (at least to me), Faeldon explains that restiveness in the military will be there as long as there are irregularities. However he observes as well that there is growing mistrust among the soldiers that they are just being used to further the personal ambitions of certain people which is why they do not participate "in order to play safe".

Faeldon also says that Gloria Arroyo has no authority to pardon him because she is not a legitimate President.

On the question of whether or not the Filipino people are ready for change, he gives what i think is the best piece of personal advice in this interview...

"...be aware of what you're thinking because it defines you as a person and it guides your action[s], so when you say that 'the people are not ready for change, the people are not ready to change values, the people are not ready to change their character,' that defines your actions"

Interview with Captain Faeldon (Part 2 of 4)

Faeldon states that another principle of their group is not to engage in partisan politics. (This included refusing to endorse his brother during the elections in 2004.) On the idea of National Consciousness, he emphasizes its required scope...

"...national consciousness cannot be achieved without majority of the people in a certain society...in a nation...adheres to it...hindi puwede iyong magbuo ka lang ng isang milyon sa Metro Manila...then try to make a dent sa pambansa..."

...and clarifies its meaning as:

"...a situation where majority of the Filipino people have agreed united behind one idea and aspiration... [which represents their hope in life]..."

Capt. Faeldon also explains the failure of the post-EDSA (1986) leadership to capitalize on the people's unity at that time to take "strong positions on economic and political policies".

Interview with Captain Faeldon (Part 1 of 4)

Captain Faeldon explains the origin of Pilipino.org, and the need for National Consciousness which requires personal sacrifice in the "long haul activity for this nation". He also rejects armed uprising and believes that the means to attain his vision is through democracy and non-violence.

Crispin Beltran

"What happened — his being on the roof, a 75-year old man with a hammer, doing household work and making sure his home and family were safe from the rains — is (was?) so like Ka Bel. He lived and worked from day to day always with meaningful intent, with purpose, with the aim to protect and defend those he cared for and loved the most. And that purpose extended (oh how it it did reach outward and forward like an undeniable force of nature!) beyond his family — he embraced the working class, the Filipino people, and even the poor and oppressed of other nations." - From a tribute by Ina Silverio

Truly an exemplary human being and a rare breed of Congressman. Read the whole thing over at Ellen's blog.

The Austronesian Migration: Questions and Links

My friend Melvin, who is also interested in the migrations of peoples through history has some thought-provoking questions on this subject, particularly as it relates to the Austronesian migration to the Philippines, the rest of Southeast Asia and beyond:

1. Why are Kapampangan speakers completely surrounded by Tagalog speakers (a language that's not really similar to it)?
2. How did Tagalog -- a Cebuano cousin -- become entrenched in the regions around Laguna de Bay and Taal Lake, instead of languages that developed on Luzon island?
3. How is it that peninsular Malaysia is part of the Austronesian language region (that originated in Taiwan), when migrations from the Indian subcontinent or from southern China seems easier?
4. Did volcanic eruptions completely wipe out the original inhabitants of the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia? Did this event, in turn, facilitate the migration of Austronesian peoples?
5. What led the Austronesians to become master seafarers that populated the Pacific islands and went as far as Madagascar? Was there some important natural event?
6. [Added May-27-2008] Do you know how related Mon-Khmers are to Austronesians? (Cambodians don't really look that much different from Malays).

Any answers (or links) to the above would be appreciated.

Melvin has also pointed to a useful website, The Austronesian Basic Vocabulary Database**.

Update May-21-2008: In the comments section, Anonymous has provided some information relevant to Questions #1 to #3 above.

Specific to Question #1 and #2, i.e. the encirclement of Kapampangans by the Tagalogs, Anonymous explains:

"Kapampangans used to populate the areas around Tondo, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, and Bataan. At the arrival of the conquistas there were only around 70,000 Tagalogs and 70,000 Kapampangans, and the areas of Pampanga and Katagalugan were mostly covered in forest. So the areas which are now populated with Tagalogs have just been deforested and populated in the past 150 years. The encroachment of Tagalogs is a recent phenomena (due to Tagalog speaking people's population boom). The policy of Filipino (Tagalog) as national language has converted a lot of native Kapampangan speakers as well. Tagalogs were sent by Bornean Datus to represent Borneo's trade interests with mainland Chinese merchants in the all important port of Manila. In the beginning, Laguna and Batangas was their heartland, because that's as far as they can push (otherwise they'd meet the bolos of Kapampangan tribes if they pushed harder into Manila!) as Kapampangans had control of the Manila (Rajah Soliman, Lakan Dula and Matanda were Kapampangan). Of course, it should be remembered that Tagalogs and Kapampangans had friendly relations due to diplomacy by familial intermarriages of the aristocracy."

I take the above to mean that the encroachment of Tagalogs in what used to be the domain of the Kapampangans is a consequence of the Pax-Hispanica imposed by the Spanish colonizers which meant that previous tribal boundaries were no longer barriers to free movement.

Regarding Question #3, i.e. the presence of Austronesians in Malaysia, Anonymous offered the following hypothesis:

"Eden in the East, the Drowned Continent of Southeast Asia by Stephen Oppenheimer posits that Austronesians had their native homeland in Sundaland-which is located in the South China Sea area bordered by Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia. The melting of ice after the last ice age drowned the continent, and pushed its people out of Sundaland into the Philippines, Oceania, even as far as Madagascar."

This scenario is possible as seen from the vast areas of Sundaland submerged at the end of the last Ice Age as shown in the before and after pictures below.***

Click on image to enlarge
According to the Genographic Project, Y-DNA marker Haplogroup O1a-M119 associated with the Austronesians emerged 30,000 years ago so the timescales do match. So if Ice Age Sundaland was inhabited by the Austronesians, this would explain their continued presence in the Malay Peninsula. On the other hand, the as per the Wikipedia entry on the Austronesian Languages, the greatest linquistic and genetic diversity is found in Taiwan which supports the competing claim that the Austronesian language originated in that island. These conflicting facts still need to be reconciled to arrive at a coherent historical narrative.

You can read the entirety of Anonymous' explanation in the comments section.

Update May-23-2008: Anonymous has pointed to a blog by Paul K. Manansala with fascinating entries on the Austronesians (with emphasis on the Nusantao). His blog also gives a more detailed account of the Sundaland flooding events, of which there were 3 major episodes.

In one of his blog entries on the topic, Manansala gives an important warning...

"...we should not assume anything about the "race" of the Austronesian speakers, or for that matter the "Melanesians" back in the Neolithic period when these expansions occurred.

Austronesian speakers in the Pacific -- Micronesians, Melanesians and Polynesians -- for example, all have significant percentages of Y chromosome C2 haplogroup. In some Polynesian areas, C2 is the dominant haplotype. However, C2 has not been found in Taiwan so far."

The above advice is especially relevant to my previous blog entry on the Y-DNA Human Family Tree where i use mnemonic shortcuts to denote certain Haplogroups. Each linguistic group may have individuals predominantly belonging to one Haplogroup but clearly the categories of language and genetic genealogy can and do overlap.

In the same blog entry, Manansala also differentiates between the 'Austronesian' and the 'Malayo-Polynesian' expansions.

Update May-27-2008: Related to Question #4 above, Melvin clarifies his question...

"About the volcanic eruption-related questions, I was actually wondering whether later eruptions kept SE Asia sparsely populated, since Sumatra and Java are littered with volcanoes. On the same vein, I also wonder whether Banahaw and Taal had helped ensure that a Visayan language (Tagalog) and not a Kapampangan/Panggalatoc relative take root in the Batangas/Quezon region."

On the Austronesian origins of the Thai language, Melvin shares what he read:

"Thai originated in Taiwan as an Austronesian language but has evolved into a totally different language. Unlike other Austronesian languages that took on the seas, Thai's route was through mainland southern China. The Thais arrived in Thailand during the Song dynasty, where they displaced the Khmer Empire that once ruled the area."

I have also added his Question #6 on the relationship of the Mon-Khmer with the Austronesians.

Over in his blog, Paul K. Manansala points to new research that challenges the 'Out of Taiwan' agriculture-driven origin of the Austronesian people and supports the Sundaland flooding triggered dispersal model.

*Melvin read an article last year that mentioned about a volcanic event that wiped out the population of southern India.
**Greenhill, S. J., Blust. R, & Gray, R.D. (2003-2008) The Austronesian Basic Vocabulary Database. http://language.psy.auckland.ac.nz/austronesian
***Source of Images: The Genographic Project's Atlas of the Human Journey
****Melvin read that Cambodians settled in Southeast Asia quite recently (around 3,000 years ago) and have migrated from somewhere near northern India.

Melee - Built To Last

Jonas Burgos and the 'Middle Class Way of Living'

It's been one year since Jonas Burgos was abducted from a Mall in broad daylight. I for one, don't believe that this despicable act can just be blamed on a few bad elements in the military (or even the government). It takes a certain kind of Society to make this possible, one that is populated with individuals who possess a mindset that is on full display in this fortright (but anonymous) comment over at Expectorants:

"It's a simple question of the lesser evil. Who are the aggressive power brokers/stakeholders in the Philippines ba? Military, CPP/NPA, oligarchs.

Pick one. How you might say? Well, let's stop picking on Arroyo for one and start supporting her. She's killing the commies and bribing the soldiers. So stop those middle-class rallies against GMA and support the parliamentary referendum to prolong her and her party's rule.

If the communists or military sweep to power tomorrow and be a little less corrupt than the oligarchs, I would have to agree that there would be an exponential improvement in the lives of the hungry and destitute.

But if helping a lot of poor means that the new military or communist overlords would take away the accumulated wealth of the present rich, then I'm afraid I would have to side with the evil oligarchs.

As much as I can sympathize with the predicament of the poor, I wouldn't allow a power shift that would uplift their standard of living while at the same time lower mine, that is, my middle class way of living.

It may sound selfish, but I've thought this through. I don't want to spend the rest of my life "starting over" to accumulate again the real estate, big savings account, stocks, and bonds from which my I derive my (rent, interest, dividends, coupons) income from. At the moment, I don't work, but I live like semi-royalty because of that accumulated wealth. I'm afraid if commies or military take over then they'll tax me to the hilt or be forced to go overseas where I'll become a common tao (my wealth would be worth less if liquidated, converted to foreign currency, and moved overseas)."

The banality of evil, alive and well in 21^st Century Philippines.

Human Family Tree: Paternal Side (Y-DNA)

Using the information found on the Genographic Project website's Atlas of Human Journey, i have drawn a Family Tree based on the Y-DNA Haplogroup classifications:

Figure 1: Human Family Tree Y-DNA
Click on image to enlarge
I encourage you to browse the image above as it has some interesting relationships.

Update April-25-2008: Based on the Family Tree above, i have measured the degree of separation of each Haplogroup to every other Haplogroup by working out a route via the nearest common ancestor which i then tabulated below.

Table 1: Degree of Separation between Haplogroups
Click on image to enlarge
For example, as shown below, the degree of separation between Haplogroup O3.M122 (i.e. a marker associated with China's first rice farmers who spread throughout China and Southeast Asia) and Haplogroup O1A.M119 (i.e. associated with the Austronesians, a linguistic group that includes present day Filipinos) is '2'. Both the Austronesians and China's first rice farmers share a common immediate ancestor i.e. Haplogroup O.M175 (i.e. the 'East Asian Clan').

Example 1: China's First Rice Farmers and the Austronesians
By way of comparison, the degree of separation between Haplogroup O3.M122 (i.e. China's first rice farmers) and Haplogroup C3.M217 (i.e. the Mongols with Genghis Khan's Marker) is farther with a value of '6'. In this case, we need to go back a few steps further up the family tree to find their common ancestor Haplogroup M168 (i.e. the 'Eurasian Adam').

Example 2: China's First Rice Farmers and the Mongols
This can be contrasted with the much smaller degree of separation between Haplogroup C3.M217 (i.e. the Mongols or Genghis Khan's Marker) and Haplogroup C.M130 (i.e. the 'Coastal Clan' from where the Australian Aborigines came from) which is '1'. This is because Haplogroup C3.M217 is a direct descendant of C.M130.

Example 3: The Mongols and the Australian Aborigines
It is also interesting to observe that the Coastal Clan Haplogroup C.M130, which includes the Australian Aborigines is more closely related to Haplogroup I.M170, known to be the ancestors of the Vikings...

Example 4: The Australian Aborigines and the Vikings
...than Haplogroup I.M170 is to the Cro-Magnon Haplogroup R1B.M343 to which many of today's Western Europeans belong.

Example 5: The Vikings and the Cro-Magnon
It is clear from the preceding examples that the previously established major racial categories (e.g. Caucasoid, Negroid, Mongoloid, and Australoid) are no longer scientifically valid.

Update April-28-2008: At the comments section, do check out a critique of the Genographic website's Haplogroup descriptions, which according to the commenter, is less accurate than the equivalent entry found in Wikipedia.

Ballistic Re-entry

South Korean Astronaut Yi So-yeon
Source: Xinhua
The ride back was rougher than usual but South Korea's first astronaut made it down safely. Congratulations! May you be the first among many.

Korean Cylon Number Eight
Source:Mgroves.com

What Gödel Proved

As explained by Nagel and Newman in their classic introduction to Kurt Gödel's landmark Incompleteness Theorem,

"...given any consistent set of arithmetical axioms, there are true arithmetical statements that cannot be derived from the set."

A Mathematical System is based on a limited set of axioms, i.e. assertions or statements that are assumed to be true without the need for any proof.

Figure 1: Axioms as Self-evident Truths
Using the internal rules of the Mathematical System, these axioms can then be used as basis to determine whether other assertions within such a system are true or false. Assertions that are proven to be true are accorded the status of Theorems.

Figure 2: Proving Assertions
These theorems can in turn be used (together with axioms or other theorems) to prove or disprove other assertions via the same method of Deductive Reasoning. One would therefore expect that such an ongoing process of generating assertions and proving them would result in a mathematical system that is able to extend itself by uncovering or constructing more mathematical truths while, at the same time, avoiding false assertions that would allow inconsistency(-ies) to creep into the System. Gödel found out that this is not the case.

Figure 3: Consistent and Complete Mathematical System
(Click on image to enlarge)
What Gödel proved in 1931 was that avoiding inconsistency within the system comes at the expense of completeness, i.e. the system's characteristic of being self-contained (in other words, 'complete in itself'). In a mathematical system based on axioms, there will always be assertions that are true, but whose truth cannot be proven from within the system on the basis of its axioms (or by way of the system's theorems). The truth of these assertions can be determined from outside the system [aka the 'Environment'], but not from within.

Figure 4: Consistent but Incomplete Mathematical System
(Click on image to enlarge)
Gödel's Incompleteness Theorem has a number of implications that have been explored at length, but i believe that one of the most significant, as explained by Douglas Hofstadter* is that:

"...provability is a weaker notion than truth** no matter what axiomatic system is involved."

A timely reminder to those who count on a given system to always come up with evidence to establish truth. There are situations when lack of evidence does not negate the truth of an assertion. Sometimes, you just have to step outside the system to see that this is indeed the case.

Update April-16-2008: Here's an excellent discussion on Douglas Hofstadter's book Gödel, Escher, Bach (also known by its shortname GEB).

Update April-25-2008: It is also important to emphasize what Gödel does not prove, i.e. Gödel does not prove the romantic and anti-rationalist notion that "There are true things which cannot be proved".

*in his book Gödel, Escher, Bach: an Eternal Golden Braid
**Emphasis mine.

In a carefully worded statement...

...from Tom Tolibas, Senator Miriam-Defensor Santiago’s media relations officer:

"She’s OK now. Her CT [computed tomography] scan showed no additional injuries. She’s home now recovering."

Matter and Energy: Ordinary and Dark

I just finished reading Lisa Randall's book Warped Passages, which i highly recommend especially now that the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), where many of the theories she discusses in the book will be tested, is about to start operating.

While Randall's main focus is on theories involving extra-dimensions, she explains a lot of related topics along the way, and for me, one of the most striking details she reveals has to do with the varieties and relative proportions of matter and energy in the Universe. Randall explains...

"Dark Matter is the nonluminous matter that pervades the universe and has been discovered through its gravitational influence. Even though about one-quarter (25%) of the energy in the universe* is stored in dark matter, we still don't know what it is...

...The universe contains dark energy** (energy not carried by any matter), that constitutes seventy percent (70%) of the total energy of the universe...No theory [is able to] explain dark energy."

By contrast, ordinary matter from which we are made of makes up the remaining five percent (5%).

Update April-20-2008: Via 3Quarksdaily, an experiment that claims to detect Dark Matter in the form of Weakly Interacting Massive Particles (WIMPs).

Also, here's the web page for NASA's Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) that i mentioned in the comments section. It has further interesting information including this Timeline of the Universe.

Click on image to enlarge
In the above diagram, the acceleration of the Universe's expansion due to Dark Energy is noticeable.

Update April-25-2008: Over at Cosmic Variance, blogger-physicist Sean Carroll explains that the famous equation e=mc² does not apply in the case of Dark Energy.

"Interestingly, the dark energy that makes up 70% of the energy of the universe doesn’t really have “mass” at all, since it’s not made up of objects (such as particles) that can have a rest frame — it’s a smooth field filling space."

*Matter and energy is intergchangeable via e=mc².
**This mysterious Dark Energy is also known as Vacuum Energy and was first proposed by Einstein as the Cosmological Constant and more recently theorized as a new substance called Quintessence. Its presence is inferred by the observation that the expansion of the universe seems to be accelerating.

GDP Growth and Missing Energy

Reacting to my observation on the negative correlation between Oil Imports and GDP per capita, commenter UPn Student suggested that:

"you should chart out BTU-consumption versus GDP, not oil-importation versus GDP."

I think that suggestion made sense so i did some research. I divided the Final Energy Consumption* figures in my preceding post by the applicable population for a given year and mapped the result to GDP per capita** as follows:

Figure 1: GDP per capita and Energy Consumption per Capita
Click on image to enlarge
I then computed the correlation coefficients between per capita GDP and Energy Consumption during the three periods of expansion under Cory, FVR and GMA as well as the two periods of contraction that are sandwiched in between as shown in the diagram below.

Figure 2: Correlation Coefficients: GDP per Capita and Energy Consumption per Capita
Click on image to enlarge
For the periods of GDP expansion (1986 to 1989, 1993 to 1997 and 2002 to 2005), the above show similar patterns of correlation between per capita GDP and Energy Consumption as my previous computation which was based on Oil Imports. (As can be seen, for the three periods of expansion, the values of the correlation coefficients are practically identical.)

The first two post-EDSA expansions under Cory and FVR shows the expected positive correlation between per capita GDP and per capita Energy Consumption. By contrast, the current expansion under Gloria Arroyo shows a negative correlation. Even after factoring in the contributions of Malampaya's Natural Gas starting in 2002, the strangeness remains.

The next step would be to identify the 'missing' component and match that to the sector of the economy that seems to be consuming less energy than it normally does. Among the three components of Final Energy Consumption for the period 2002 to 2005, both Coal and Electricity has shown a positive correlation. In contrast, Petroleum has shown an almost perfect negative correlation:

Energy Source	Correlation Coefficient
Coal	+0.99
Petroleum	- 0.99
Electricity	+0.86

Table 1: Correlation Coefficients: GDP per Capita and Energy Consumption by Source (2002 to 2005)
So the missing energy turns out to still be Petroleum (which is derived from Crude Oil).

Which sector of the economy then has been consuming less and less Petroleum per capita as per capita GDP increases? Of the three broad categories of power consuming sectors of the Philippine Economy, i.e. Industry***, Transport**** and Others***** (which includes the Residential and Commercial Sectors), all have shown negative correlations when it comes to Petroleum consumption and GDP per Capita:

Economic Sector	Correlation Coefficient
Industry	- 0.84
Transport	- 0.88
Others	- 1.00

Table 2: Correlation Coefficients: GDP per Capita and Petroleum Consumption by Economic Sector (2002 to 2005)
It may again be argued that Petroleum is not the only source of energy of the above sectors so we need to consider the possibility of substitution of Petroleum by other sources (e.g. Electricity and Coal). If we take into account all those other sources of energy (i.e. Electricity and Coal) used by these sectors into the computation of the Correlation Coefficient, we get the following results:

Economic Sector	Correlation Coefficient
Industry	+ 0.83
Transport	- 0.88
Others	- 0.62

Table 3: Correlation Coefficients: GDP per Capita and Energy Consumption by Economic Sector (2002 to 2005)
The above shows that for the Industry Sector, substitution of Petroleum by other sources may offer a plausible explanation for the reduction in its usage. However, for the remaining sectors such as Transport and Others (includes Commercial and Residential), the question of missing energy is still unresolved. The alternative explanations i can think of are the following:

1. We have become more efficient in consuming energy to the extent that energy consumed per person is actually decreasing even as incomes are increasing. This, however, is highly unlikely as it goes against the pattern of increasing energy consumption that goes with increasing incomes.
2. Energy consumption is being understated. It may be that the smuggled oil is not being accounted for in the Energy Balance Tables.
3. GDP growth has been overstated and corresponding per capita GDP has not really increased as much as has been reported. This is more consistent with the results of the 2003 to 2006 Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES).
   

I would welcome inputs and alternative explanations from the readers.

Update 7:00pm: In the comments section, Gabby asks how i determined whether a given sector substitutes between energy sources. For each sector, i computed the correlation coefficient using Petroleum Consumption (in the green cells) and did the same with Total Energy Consumption (in the yellow cells) as follows:

Year	Industry Sector
	Petroleum	Coal	Electricity	Total
2002	2357	622	1172	4151
2003	2088	770	1299	4157
2004	2186	1055	1291	4532
2005	2054	1208	1368	4630
Correlation Coefficient	-0.84			+0.83

Table 4: Final Energy Consumption (in ktoe)
Industry Sector (2002 to 2005)
As seen above, with Petroleum alone, the Correlation Coefficient was negative (at -0.84) but if we include other energy sources i.e. Coal and Electricity, the value turns positive (at +0.83). This means that the increase in the alternative Energy Sources more than compensated for the relative decrease in Petroleum. The same cannot be seen for the rest of the sectors as shown in the following tables where the coefficients have remained in negative territory:

Year	Transport Sector
	Petroleum	Electricity	Total
2002	8424	5	8429
2003	8673	5	8678
2004	8662	6	8668
2005	8444	8	8452
Correlation Coefficient	-0.88		-0.88

Table 5: Final Energy Consumption (in ktoe)
Transport Sector (2002 to 2005)

Year	Others Sector
	Petroleum	Electricity	Total
2002	2308	2145	4453
2003	2269	2363	4632
2004	2173	2494	4667
2005	2128	2540	4668
Correlation Coefficient	-1.00		-0.62

Table 6: Final Energy Consumption (in ktoe)
Others Sector (2002 to 2005)

Update Nov-16-2008: Economist-blogger Tyler Cowen of Marginalrevolution, takes a similar over-all approach to the above and applies it to China. He speculates that the year-on-year change in generated electrical power in China for the month of October may be a more reliable indicator than government-reported GDP statistics.

Update Jan-27-2009: In response to GabbyD's query in the comments section, here is the relative share of the Transportation Sector to total GDP (1990 to 2008).

Year	Transportation & Communications Sector GDP	Total GDP	Relative Share
1990	41,108	720,690	5.7%
1991	41,291	716,522	5.8%
1992	41,870	718,941	5.8%
1993	42,941	734,156	5.8%
1994	44,764	766,368	5.8%
1995	47,366	802,866	5.9%
1995	47,366	802,866	5.9%
1995	47,366	802,866	5.9%
1995	47,366	802,866	5.9%
1995	47,366	802,866	5.9%
1996	50,878	849,121	6.0%
1997	55,067	893,151	6.2%
1998	58,640	888,000	6.6%
1999	61,726	918,160	6.7%
2000	68,174	972,960	7.0%
2001	74,181	990,042	7.5%
2002	80,805	1,034,093	7.8%
2003	87,747	1,085,071	8.1%
2004	97,605	1,154,296	8.5%
2005	104,766	1,211,452	8.6%
2006	111,412	1,276,873	8.7%
2007	256,877	1,368,740	18.8%
2008	90,590	1,035,303	8.8%

Table 7:Relative Share of Transportation & Communications Sector to GDP (1990 to 2008)******


*Source: APEC Energy Database
**Source: NSCB for 1994 to 2006 and Virtual Philippines, Biz Pack, Statistics - GDP and Economic Indicators for 1986 to 1993.
***Industry Sector includes Iron and Steel, Chemical (incl. Petro-Chemical), Non Ferrous Metals, Non Metallic Mineral Products, Transportation Equipment, Machinery, Mining and Quarrying, Food, Beverages and Tobacco, Pulp, Paper and Printing, Wood and Wood Products, Construction, Textiles and Leather.
****Transport Sector includes International Civil Aviation, Domestic Air Transport, Road, Rail, Inland Waterways, Pipeline Transport.
*****Others Sector includes Commerce and Public Services, Residential, Agriculture and Fishing.
******Source: NEDA

GDP per Capita and Energy Consumption

Malampaya Project
In the preceding post, i pointed out the unusual negative correlation between GDP per capita and oil imports during the present growth episode (2001 to 2006). In the comments , fellow blogger Jon Limjap brought up the possibility that this may be due to the increased reliance on Natural Gas leading to a reduction in oil imports. The following chart shows the amount of energy consumed (in kilotons of oil equivalent or 'ktoe') according to power source*:

Figure 1: Final Consumption by Energy Source
Click on image to enlarge
One thing immediately noticeable is the sudden appearance starting in Year 2003 of 'Others'. (Nope, this is not because of Natural Gas from Malampaya.) The bulk of this category consists of biomass in the form of Fuel Wood & Woodwaste which accounts for over 80% of the total with the remainder made up of Bagasse, Charcoal and 'Other Biomass'. As explained in the APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook (2006):

In 2002, the Philippines’ residential energy consumption was dominated by biomass (from rice and coconut residues, and wood waste) at 58 percent. However due to the expanded access to electricity and the availability of commercial fuels, the share of biomass in total residential energy demand is projected to decrease from 58 percent in 2002 to 28 percent in 2030. Consequently, limited growth in biomass is expected at a modest rate of 0.2 percent due to the continued use in rural areas as a fuel for cooking.

Clearly, biomass as a source of fuel has already been in use even before 2002, although not accounted for in the Energy Balance Tables prior to that year. For consistency of comparisons, i will therefore disregard this component from the analysis and focus on Coal, Petroleum and Electricity and redraw the above chart as follows:

Figure 2: Final Consumption by Energy Source
(Coal, Petroleum & Electricity)
Click on image to enlarge
Natural Gas (along with Crude Oil, Geothermal, Hydroelectric and others) is used as an input to generate Electricity so any increase in contribution will be reflected in this component. However, it is readily apparent that, as a source of power, Electricity still constitutes a minority and is dwarfed by Petroleum. (The portion of Crude Oil that is used as input to Electricity is not reflected under Petroleum but is incorporated as part of Electricity. This prevents any double counting.)

The relative contributions of the various inputs to Electricity are shown in the diagram below.

Figure 3: Inputs to Electricity
Click on image to enlarge
So the answer to Jon's question above is that, as far as electricity is concerned, Natural Gas started contributing significantly to electricity generation in 2002 and along with coal has indeed replaced petroleum as an input to Electricity. However, it is also clear from the above that Electricity remains a small part of the Country's overall Energy Consumption. So the question remains on whether Energy Consumption has kept pace with GDP per capita growth. This would be the subject of my next blog entry.

*Source: APEC Energy Database

GDP Per Capita and Oil Imports: Strong, Weak and Strange Correlations

In his Manila Standard column, Peter Wallace pointed to the disconnect between GDP growth and oil imports:

"Imports were 6.6 percent less in 2007 than they were in 2006. Now in a healthy, growing economy that’s a most unlikely event. Within that oil imports fell 5.6 percent. Now that’s just impossible." [emphasis mine] "You can have some slowing if there’s a shift to alternative fuels, but in 2007 there wasn’t to any significant degree. Oil imports should be growing close to GDP growth, a bit slower but close, and not showing a contradicting trend as it did in 2007. So you’re left with only one logical alternative: smuggling increased substantially."

I share Wallace's misgivings because common sense leads me to believe that higher income leads to higher energy consumption and hence the need for more oil imports. Over at Manolo's however, fellow commenter Ca T questions the existence of such a correlation and she asks:

"...with regards correlation of oil imports to GDP growth, is there a study which shows there is high correlation? then what is the correlation coefficient..." - The Ca T, March 6th, 2008 at 3:27 am

I haven't come across such a study so i had to do my own research. First, i had to obtain data on the volume of crude oil imports. The chart below shows the volume of crude oil imports (in thousands of barrels) from 1986 to 2006.*

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I then divided the above by the applicable population for a given year and mapped the result to GDP per capita** as follows:

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The resulting correlation coefficient for the entire 21 year period (1986 to 2006) turns out to be weakly negative with a value of -0.35 (see top portion of following diagram). This means that a rising per capita GDP results in a lower volume of imports over time which is contrary to Wallace's claim as quoted above. This is quite different from the expected relationship and is different as well from the relationships found in the United States that shows a strong positive correlation between gdp per capita and oil consumption (estimated at +0.68).


A closer look at the data reveals a sharp difference in the relationship before and after 1997 (see bottom portion of above diagram). From 1986 to 1997, there is a strong positive correlation (at +0.76) between per capita GDP and oil imports similar to the one observed in the United States. Starting 1998 until 2006, however, the relationship becomes strongly negative (at -0.94). What accounts for this sudden reversal in the correlation after 1997? A further breakdown into periods of expansion and contraction sheds light on the anomaly. The diagram below shows the correlation coefficients between per capita GDP and oil imports during the three periods of expansion under Cory, FVR and GMA as well as the two periods of contraction that are sandwiched in between.

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As shown above, the periods of expansion during Cory and FVR's terms showed a strong positive correlation (+0.85 and +0.80 respectively) between per capita GDP and oil imports. Gloria Arroyo's expansion by contrast exhibits a strong negative correlation (at -0.87) between per capita GDP and oil imports. During periods of contraction, the earlier one (in the aftermath of Gringo's coup attempts and during the Power Crisis) shows a weak negative correlation (at -0.21) while the one during the Asian Financial crisis shows a strong negative correlation (at -0.92).

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The per year breakdown above explains the strength of the correlations. Starting 1997, the behavior has been almost completely dominated by an increase in GDP being accompanied by a decrease in oil imports. This has resulted in a situation where the high water mark in per capita GDP level during 2006 exists side by side with a per capita oil imports falling below the 1987 level. Strange (not to mention fishy).

*Source: Virtual Philippines Biz Pack, Statistics - Energy and Water Resources for 1986 to 2001 and NSCB for 2001 to 2006.
**Source: NSCB for 1994 to 2006 and Virtual Philippines, Biz Pack, Statistics - GDP and Economic Indicators for 1986 to 1993.

Gloria Macapagal Arroyo: Resign!

For violating Article VII Section 20 of the Philippine Constitution which provides:

"The President may contract or guarantee foreign loans on behalf of the Republic of the Philippines with the prior concurrence of the Monetary Board, and subject to such limitations as may be provided by law. The Monetary Board shall, within thirty days from the end of every quarter of the calendar year, submit to the Congress a complete report of its decision on applications for loans to be contracted or guaranteed by the Government or government-owned and controlled corporations which would have the effect of increasing the foreign debt, and containing other matters as may be provided by law."

The Monetary Board was not consulted and much less its approval asked.

(Thanks to Commenter MVJ for the heads up.)

Invitation: Interfaith Prayer Rally

From the Black and White Movement:

HUWAG MATAKOT HANAPIN ANG KATOTOHANAN!

Tinatawagan ang publiko na lumahok sa malawakang INTERFAITH PRAYER RALLY na gaganapin sa Biyernes, ika-29 ng Pebrero, 4:30 p.m. - 8 p.m sa kanto ng Ayala Ave. at Paseo de Roxas, Makati.

Alinsunod ito sa panawagan ng CBCP at mga relihiyoso na magkaisa sa puspusang paghahanap sa katotohanan sa likod ng ma-anomalyang ZTE broadband deal at labanan ang katiwalian sa gobyerno.

Huwag tayo magpapaloko at magpapatakot sa mga kumakalat na balitang magkakagulo sa araw ng rally. Ang mga balitang ito ay gawa-gawa ng mga nais takpan ang katotohanan.

MAGKAISA TAYO SA PAGLALAKBAY SA LANDAS NG KATOTOHANAN TUNGO SA PAGBABAGO! SUMALI SA PRAYER RALLY SA MAKATI SA BIYERNES!

Update Feb-28-2008: Black and White Movement, together with Hyatt 10/La Salle 60, MBC, MAP, Manindigan, and other professional and church groups will assemble at the AIM (Paseo de Roxas) Parking lot at 3:00 PM.

Gloria Resign!

Randy David summarizes the damage that Gloria Macapagal Arroyo has done to our institutions.

"...it would be a mistake to think this is just about corruption. This is, more importantly, about the long-term damage to a nation’s social institutions.

The damage to government institutions has been the most extensive. Far from being a neutral arbiter of disputes and a source of normative stability, the justice system has become a weapon to intimidate those who stand up to power. Far from being a pillar of public security, the military and the police have become the private army of a gangster regime. Instead of serving as an objective referee in electoral contests, the Commission on Elections has become a haven for fixers who deliver fictitious votes to the moneyed and the powerful. Instead of serving as the steady backbone of public service through successive changes in administration, the government bureaucracy has been turned into a halfway house for political lackeys, misfits and the corrupt. Instead of serving as a check on presidential power, the House of Representatives has become its hired cheering squad.

The erosion of these institutions, no doubt, has been going on for a long time. But their destruction in the last seven years under Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s presidency has been the most comprehensive since 1986..."

Thanks to Kabayan for spearheading the blogswarm. If people keep up the pressure, I bet she'll be looking over her shoulders more often.

Invitation: EDSA 1 Mass at Baclaran 25 February

From the Black and White Movement:

TRUTH IS OUR PERPETUAL HELP

The Black & White Movement invites everyone to a special Mass in commemoration of the 22nd anniversary of the EDSA 1 People Power Revolution at the Shrine of Our Mother of Perpetual Help, Baclaran, Paranaque, on Monday, 25 February, 3:00 p.m.

We will be joined by former President Corazon Aquino, ZTE-NBN Deal truth teller Jun Lozada and family.

We look forward to seeing you, your family, and friends at this celebration of our nation's gift to the world – People Power.

The Truth is our Perpetual Help.

SA TOTOO TAYO!