World Bank Governance Indicators for the Philippines (1996 to 2006)

From the beginning, Gloria Arroyo has used the mantra of Good Governance to set her administration apart from her predecessor. In her inauguration speech before the EDSA Dos crowd, Gloria Arroyo declared that:

"To ensure that our gains are not dissipated through corruption, we must improve moral standards. As we do so, we create fertile ground for good governance based on a sound moral foundation, a philosophy of transparency, and an ethic of effective implementation."

Six years is more than enough time to judge her ability to deliver on the above which can now be evaluated using the World Bank's Governance Indicators that measures a Country's quality of governance based on six dimensions:

• Control of Corruption
• Government Effectiveness
• Political Stability
• Regulatory Quality
• Rule of Law, and
• Voice and Accountability

The country being measured is assigned a value between -2.5 and 2.5 on each of the above attributes, with the higher value representing better quality governance. These indices are computed using inputs from multiple sources. The most recent edition of this report is the...

Worldwide Governance Indicators: 1996-2006

...which was released in July 2007. The Report (pdf format) can be downloaded here. I have taken the index values for Philippines and converted these into line-graphs as follows (click on the images to enlarge):





Click on images to enlarge
By the above measures, Gloria Arroyo compares poorly with her predecessors as well as with her contemporaries in the other 212 countries being measured.

Abalos Political Deathwatch: Day Five

At Uniffors, check out Manuel Buencamino's account of Joey de Venecia's revelations made at the Black and White Forum.

Philippine GDP Growth Patterns by Industrial Origin: 1Q 1991 to 2Q 2007

[Source: NEDA Economic Indicators: Gross National Product and Gross Domestic Product by Industrial Origin at Constant 1985 Prices]

The above slides show the GDP growth trends per sector of the economy. The red dotted-line plots the the year-to-year quarterly GDP growth rate (as represented by the Y-Axis) over a given time period (as represented by the X-Axis). Vertical lines demarcate the Administrations of Corazon C. Aquino ('Cory'), Fidel V. Ramos ('FVR'), Joseph E. Estrada ('Erap') and Gloria Macapagal Arroyo ('GMA'). The thick black horizontal line signifies the zero-percent (0%) mark. (On the diagram, click on the second arrow from the right to move forward to the next slide.)

Slide 1 Manufacturing: Manufacturing is the largest sector contributing 23% to total GDP in 2Q 2007. During the FVR Administration, this sector experienced both rapid acceleration and deceleration. After recovering during Erap's term, growth rate has so far remained flat during the Arroyo Administration.

Slide 2 Trade: Trade is the second largest sector comprising 17% of total GDP in 2Q 2007. The growth rate for this sector has been accelerating at a steady rate since the beginning of the Estrada Administration up to the present.

Slide 3 Agriculture and Fisheries: Agriculture and Fisheries which makes up 16% of the economy as of 2Q 2007 has exhibited a highly variable pattern of growth. At the aggregate level, no pattern of growth acceleration or decelaration can be detected regardless of the Administration.

Slide 4 Transportation, Communication & Storage: The Transportation, Communication & Storage sector, comprising 9% of total GDP in 2Q 2007, experienced its greatest growth acceleration during a major portion of the Ramos Administration. Since then, the growth rate in this sector has remained flat.

Slide 5 Private Services: Private Services, which also makes up 9% of GDP in 2Q 2007, has experienced accelerating growth which started in the first few years of the GMA Administration.

Slide 6 Finance: The growth rate of the Financial Sector started recovering from the Asian Financial Crisis during the tail-end of the Estrada Administration and the recovery has continued ever since. In 2Q 2007, this sector contributed 6% to the GDP.

Slide 7 Real Estate: The present growth rate of the Real Estate sector is at its highest within the period under consideration. It started accelerating early in the Arroyo Administration and has arrived at a plateau. In 2Q 2007, this sector contributed 5% to the GDP.

Slide 8 Construction: After peaking towards the middle of the FVR Administration, the growth rate of the Construction sector started to decline. Recovery started in the middle of Erap's Presidency and has continued up to the present.

Slide 9 Government Services: The growth rate in Government Services, which contributed 4% to the 2Q 2007 GDP, remained constant during FVR's time and declined during the Estrada Administration. Under GMA, it has resumed its upward trajectory and is now at its highest.

Slide 10 Electricity, Gas & Water: After peaking during the Ramos Administration, the growth rate of the Electricity, Gas and Water sector has remained constant throughout the Estrada and Arroyo administrations. This sector contributed 3% to the 2Q 2007 GDP.

Slide 11 Mining & Quarrying: The Mining and Quarrying sector comprises 2% of 2Q 2007 GDP. After remaining flat during previous Administrations, the growth rate of the sector has experienced an increase under Gloria Arroyo.

Slide 12 Forestry: Forestry, which is the smallest sector (contributing around 1/10 of one percent to GDP) has also experienced an acceleration of growth rate under the present administration.

The pie chart below gives a perspective on the relative contributions of each of the above sectors to the 2nd Quarter 2007 GDP.

[Source: NEDA (Click on image to enlarge.)
The fact that there have been no steep nor sustained declines in the growth rate in any of the sectors of the economy during GMA's time accounts for the comparatively healthy over-all GDP growth during this period. In order of importace, the past increases in GDP Growth rate has relied on the acceleration in growth rates of the Trade, Personal Services, Finance, Construction, Government Services, Mining & Quarrying and Forestry Sectors. On the other hand, the lack of acceleration in the growth rates of two out of the three biggest sectors, i.e. Manufacturing and Agriculture has discouraged further acceleration.

Abalos Political Deathwatch: Day Three

Excerpts from a news item in the the Philippine Star, many thanks to Yuko.

JDV's son confirms $10-M Abalos bribe
By Iris Gonzales and Rainier Allan Ronda
Saturday, September 8, 2007

The son of Speaker Jose de Venecia Jr. confirmed yesterday that Chairman Benjamin Abalos of the Commission on Elections (Comelec) offered him $10 million to back out of competition with Chinese firm ZTE Corp. for a national broadband contract.

Jose de Venecia III, a director of ZTE's rival Amsterdam Holdings Inc., confirmed the story in an interview with ABS-CBN in its website, saying Abalos had told him, "Joey, umatras ka na lang, bibigyan kita ng $10 million (back out, I will give you $10 million)."

The younger De Venecia said he was shocked and immediately declined the bribe...

...the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI), which claims to be the voice of the private business sector, is not about to call for the resignation of Abalos or the annulment of the ZTE contract.

"It is still too premature to say anything at this time," Sergio Ortiz-Luis, PCCI honorary chairman and president of the Philippine Exporters Confederation and Employers Confederation of the Philippines, said yesterday.

...Abalos has been widely criticized for allegedly brokering for ZTE and receiving cash and outlandish perks in China – including young women – in return.

Abalos admitted ZTE paid for his trip to China weeks before the last elections but denied brokering for the Chinese firm or receiving lavish gifts or sexual favors.

...Ortiz-Luis said it is wrong to pass judgment on Abalos or the broadband contract at this time since nobody has seen the contract yet or has really made a full measure of the competency of the parties that participated in the bidding.

Ortiz-Luis said the best thing to do at this time is to wait for the results of the investigations, including those that will be conducted by Malacañang and the Senate, before coming out with a position.

He said everything is still based on allegations and reports so it is not proper to say anything categorical.

China open to ZTE probe

The Chinese government may investigate ZTE officials for possible wrongdoing.

Liu Jien Chao, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, told ABS-CBN Australia News Bureau on Thursday that his government takes allegations of corruption seriously.

"We are firm in fighting against any kind of corruption no matter if it happened in the government or any of the enterprises and we are also against any corruption that cropped up in bilateral trade relations with our trade partners so we are firm on that," Liu said.

"I think if the Philippine side will raise this issue with the Chinese side the Chinese side will look seriously into this," he said. But he admitted he is not privy to the ZTE deal.

Gov't experts ignored

The government's own technology experts had vouched for the viability of a "free" national broadband network but had been ignored in favor of the expensive – and questionable – offer from ZTE.

Science Secretary Estrella Alabastro told the House committee on appropriations that no government official had consulted her office regarding the $329-million controversial broadband deal. The House committee is deliberating on the P5.28 billion proposed budget for the Department of Science and Technology (DOST).

She said the broadband program is within the jurisdiction and expertise of the DOST.

She said the DOST has been pushing for an NBN project since 2001 and that the National Economic and Development Authority or NEDA has already been apprised of the proposal.

She added that NEDA has yet to act on her agency's request for funds from Official Development Assistance.

But she said that despite funding problems, the DOST was still able to establish online communications among 80 agencies using the existing network of the country's top telecommunications companies.

Meanwhile, Amsterdam Holdings Inc. refuted ZTE's accusations that the government stands to lose more if it chooses AHI or other contractors.

"ZTE's proposal will require the Philippine government to obtain a $330 million loan from the Chinese government at an interest rate of three percent per annum, payable in 15 years with a grace period of five years," AHI said in a statement.

"But the Philippine government will not have to pay a single cent towards the $240 million project cost of AHI," it said. "AHI will construct, operate, and maintain the NBN at no cost to government."

House will be fair

The House leadership is ready to let any impeachment case against Abalos take its course, a senior House member said.

"In fact, there are early preparations so as not to derail the proceedings in case a complaint is filed against chairman Abalos in the House," Baguio City Rep. Mauricio Domogan said.

"The House will be fair on any forthcoming impeachment complaint or complaints against him," he said.

Domogan said he is confident the involvement of Speaker Jose de Venecia Jr.'s son in the controversy would not affect impeachment proceedings.

"We believe the Speaker will not use his influence over the congressmen even with his son's involvement in the NBN deal controversy with the ZTE Corp. In fairness to the Speaker, he has observed delicadeza (propriety) and has not prejudged chairman Abalos," Domogan said. The Speaker's son, Jose de Venecia III co-founded AHI, ZTE's most vocal rival.

The Baguio City lawmaker said De Venecia even described the kickback issue against Abalos as "overkill."

"The Speaker has said that his son and his business associates are not interested in impeachment or in persecuting anybody and that they are only interested in business," Domogan said.

Threat of 'karma'

By shunning a bribe, he may have emerged with a clear conscience but by keeping silent about the misdeed he may ultimately lose his soul.

This was the message of a Catholic prelate to Commission on Higher Education chairman Romulo Neri in reaction to the latter's being tight-lipped about alleged bribery cases in government contracts.

Neri, former NEDA director general, said he couldn't be bribed but refused to confirm or deny if money clandestinely changed hands in the ZTE deal.

Fr. Ben Moraleda, of the Kaalagad Katipunan Kristyano said Neri should "do the right thing by telling the truth and save (his) soul before it's too late."

"Neri may have lost an opportunity to bail out of a 'sinking ship' when he refused to confirm or deny that he was offered a P200-million bribe to support the NBN project that ZTE won," Moraleda, who is also vice president of the Freedom from Debt Coalition (FDC) said.

"This is not about politics. This is about his moral responsibility to expose or condemn a crime," he also said.

On Neri's boast over radio that he never accepted bribes because he believed in "bad karma," Moraleda explained that "karma is not only about avoiding what is wrong, but especially doing what is right."

"Bad karma, therefore, will still happen if you fail to do your duty to the people," Moraleda said. "Scratch a liar and you'll find a thief."

A report by ABS-CBN correspondent Ricky Carandang said Abalos talked to Neri about the ZTE deal and that the former NEDA chief voiced his opposition to the contract but not to the need for a broadband project. Neri also declined to comment on the bribe offer.

ABS-CBN said its sources alleged that Neri informed Mrs. Arroyo of the bribe offer and that she asked him to turn it down but insisted that the deal should be approved.

Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita, for his part, denied that Neri's opposition to the ZTE deal cost him his job as NEDA chief. – with Delon Porcalla, Katherine Adraneda, Ma. Eliza Osorio, and Paolo Romero

Update Sept-09-2007 4:09PM: Via Ellen, the cornered rat is threatening to sue.

Abalos Political Deathwatch: Day Two

From some Civil Society groups...

MAKATI BUSINESS CLUB E-NEWSLETTER

7 SEPTEMBER 2007

Joint Statement

A Growing Culture of Impunity

We are appalled that the culture of impunity among certain government officials appears to have spread to an extent exceeding that of all past administrations. This impunity seems also increasingly evident in many agencies of government.

A glaring example is that of COMELEC Chairman Benjamin Abalos who had no business in allowing himself to be entertained by officials of ZTE Corporation, a potential contractor of the Republic, particularly considering he had an important electoral exercise to administer. His indiscreet conduct and absence from his official duties could only have happened if he believed he was immune from sanctions. We therefore reiterate our call for Chairman Abalos to resign.

Dept. of Transportation and Communications Secretary Leandro Mendoza needs to think very carefully about the charges leveled against him by Congressman Carlos Padilla. Like other questionable projects, the ZTE deal will be rejected by the court of public opinion and, sooner or later, evaluated and ruled on by our own independent courts of law. Sec. Mendoza should prove his worth and rescind it now.

Should he choose not to do these, we would support a full investigation by the Senate of this highly questionable project given the huge expenditure of public funds involved. We also demand that the government publicly release a copy of the contract as mandated by Article III, Sec. 7 of our Constitution which states that "The right of the people to information on matters of public concern shall be recognized."

The secrecy about this project, despite repeated demands by the public, is contrary to the principle avowed by this Administration for complete transparency in matters of public interest and to the provisions of Republic Act 7925 which emphasizes that "public telecommunications services shall be provided by private enterprises."

We are heartened by the courage of journalists and fiscalizers who bring to light the anomalous activities of public officials who believe they are protected by their position. We join them and encourage others in expressing public outrage at these questionable acts and the growing culture of political impunity.

We call on President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo to heed our pleas and take immediate action to rectify blatant wrongdoings of public officials, lest she be accused of condoning them.

Makati Business Club

Management Association of the Philippines
Financial Executives Institute of the Philippines
Foundation for Economic Freedom, Inc.

Action for Economic Reforms

7 September 2007 Copyright 2007 © Makati Business Club

IMHO, many of those who belong to the above organizations are partially complicit for allowing this growing culture of impunity. That's what we get for moving on. Oh well, at least they've belatedly added impunity to their vocabulary, and since the person they are calling into question happens to be the Chairman of the COMELEC, maybe the irony of addressing Gloria Arroyo as 'President' would eventually dawn on them.

Update Sept-15-2007 3:37pm: Blogger Chyt more thoroughly describes how the MBC have been a bunch of opportunists.

Abalos Political Deathwatch: Day One

Looks like things are coming to a head for COMELEC Chairman Benjamin Abalos. His troubles are mounting just as his usefulness to the Current Administration is ebbing. So now seems as good as time as any to start the clock for a political deathwatch. FWIW, i fully support Arbet's call for Abalos to resign or have him impeached.

Update Sept-07-2007 12:22pm: I don't think it's about loyalties. Rather, I think the person refered to in this PDI Editorial is justifiably scared. That's what otherwise decent folks get for turning a blind eye on this Administration's moral failings and consorting with a government of thugs. Now, he's in too deep.

Update Sept-26-2007 11:33pm: Neri confirms the above in a testimony before the Senate.

American Protectorate

Uniffors features a column by Billy Esposo who speculates on the United States' intentions in Mindanao, his thesis being that "the US stands much to gain in being the Protector of an independent Moroland". As support, Esposo recounts a personal correspondence with members of a Think Tank:

"A Think Tank I meet with regularly (whose members are also consulted by top local leaders and important foreign policy advisers of many countries, including the US ) reported to me that since the term of George Bush Sr., the idea of reviving the idea of creating an independent Moroland was already seriously considered."

His views and those of the Think Tank's are in line with a belief i've had for some time now. In a comment over at Sassy Lawyer's (in the context of the VFA) early last year, i told her:

"Allow me a bit of ‘tin foil hat’ speculation. The VFA needs to be abrogated because for the USA, it is just a stepping stone to the establishment of new military bases. In a few years or decades, rivalry with China will escalate. Taiwan will probably be lost and Luzon and the Visayas will be subject to Finlandization. An independent Mindanao will allow US Bases to be established in General Santos, which will be the new US firebreak in South East Asia. As early as now, we must play no part in these dangerous games." - cvj 10. February 2006 at 10:58 PM

Later that year, over at Manolo's, i also told fellow commenter JM that

"JM, call me paranoid but my worry is that the United States, when faced with a Philippine government unfriendly to forward military bases, will then encourage secession in Mindanao so a friendlier government over there will agree to establish a US Base in General Santos. That is partly the reason why i am allergic all this talk of federalization as our disunity can easily be exploited by the big players. (I don’t think the forward base will be driven by confrontation with North Korea, i think it will be needed because of confrontation with China over Taiwan.)" - cvj October 10th, 2006 at 12:21 am

In contrast, blogger Dean Jorge Bocobo, a strong advocate of American presence in Mindanao, dismissed such speculation and is of the opinion that "the people who are loudly saying the US is building a secret base on Mindanao are really pitiable". However, less than an hour later in the same thread, in what appears to be a tounge-in-cheek endorsement for such an arrangement said that, "I think, like Cuba once did with Guantanamo, we ought to give Basilan to the US...". DJB is a Fil-Am so it is not surprising for him to uphold America's interests. It is up to us Filipinos (without hyphens) to make up our minds on which course of action best serves our own Nation's interest.

Philippine Quarterly GDP Growth Dashboard: 1Q 2004 to 2Q 2007

This is an update of the GDP Growth Dashboard from the previous entry to include the 2Q 2007 figures. The graphic below shows the quarterly growth per sector from 1Q 2004 to 2Q 2007:






The first thing that can be noticed is that the growth figures reported for the previous quarter (1Q 2007) have been revised as follows:

First Quarter 2007 GDP Figure Adjustments (by Productive Sector)*****

Sector	Original	Adjusted
Agriculture	4.2%	4.1%
Industry	5.3%	6.3%
Services	9.1%	8.8%
Total	6.9%	7.1%

The improved growth for the Industrial sector from 6.3% in the first quarter to 8.0% in the second more than compensated for the decelerations in the Agriculture and Services Sector. Within the Industrial sector, the Construction and Mining Industry Groups contributed the most to the growth acceleration.

Growth Rate per Industry Group (2nd Quarter 2007)

Industry Group	Growth Rate
Mining & Quarrying	33.3%
Manufacturing	3.7%
Construction	21%
Electricity, Gas & Water	5.8%

I am unable to access the NSCB website as of now so i will have to update this entry later once i'm able to do so.

Update Sept-03-11:32PM: Unfortunately, the NSCB website is still inaccessible so i will have to make do with available data from the press releases to update the GDP Growth figures (expenditure approach):

Update Sept-06-8:30AM: Here is the updated graphic as derived from the NSCB Web Site data:

GDP Growth: Expenditure Approach (click on image to enlarge)
The following are the adjustments to the First Quarter 2007 figures:

First Quarter 2007 GDP Figure Adjustments (Expenditure Approach)*****

Category	Original	Adjusted
Government Consumption (gc)	13.1%	9.9%
Capital Formation (cf)	0.6%	6.9%
Exports (x)	9.1%	9.9%
Imports (m)	-2.5%	-2.1%

Both Personal Consumption (pce) and Government Consumption (gc) played a big role in boosting GDP and so did Capital Formation (cf). In contrast, export growth (x) and import growth (m) has been anemic.

*Very Good means that growth rate for a given period is greater than the median growth rate for the periods considered by equal or more than one standard deviation as computed using the 1Q 2004 to 1Q 2007 figures.
**Good means that the growth rate for a given period is equal or greater than the median growth rate for the periods considered as computed using the 1Q 2004 to 1Q 2007 figures.
***Poor means that the growth rate for a given period is less than the median growth rate for the periods considered as computed using the 1Q 2004 to 1Q 2007 figures.
****Very Poor means that growth rate for a given period is less than or equal to one standard deviation below the median growth rate for the periods considered as computed using the 1Q 2004 to 1Q 2007 figures.
*****Explanations for the adjustments can be found here.

Do As Infinity (D.A.I.): Fukai Mori 深い森 live

Not perfect, but heartfelt rendition from lead singer Tomiko Van who dedicated her performance to a friend who died. She breaks down early in the song but manages to recover. English translation below*:

I'm sure that the heart I left behind
still lies hidden in the heart of the deep, deep forest.

Exhausted, without the strength to search
people vanish into the infinite darkness.

If it's so small, I wonder if I can see it even now?

Refrain:
As we live on,
we lose a little bit more.
Shrouded in falsehoods and lies,
we stand frozen to the spot, unable to cry out

The days pass by and change,
without us even realizing how blue the sky really is.

Overcoming that made-up scheme, we live the present,
and our rusted hearts begin to beat again!

If we can find the rhythm of time, we can fly once again

Refrain:
We live our lives
wandering to the ends of the earth.
Believing (in you?), now I begin my journey with you,
in search of the light.

Refrain:
We live our lives
wandering to the ends of the earth.
Closing off
the way back,
we walk on for eternity.

We live our lives standing frozen to the spot,
unable to cry out, for eternity...

I've marked the stanzas she was unable to sing in purple.

*Taken from Anime Lyrics dot Com. You can go there for the Japanese lyrics as well.

ZTE Deal - Acquired Narcissism

Here is a Press Release from our friends at The Black and White Movement (BnW):

The Black & White Movement
29 August 2007

ACQUIRED NARCISSISM

In a recent story reported on CNN about an American senator busted for lewd behavior, the reporter coined the term "acquired narcissism" to explain how people in high places find it easy to behave in bizarre ways, as if their stature entitled them the license to do what they please, believing they operate under different rules because of that stature.

We are tempted to use this description in regard to the actions of some of our leading political personalities. Take, for instance, the purported actions of some government officials connected to the ZTE deal. Did the "Comelec official" mentioned in Jarius Bondoc's recent column (ZTE deal conceived in hotel 'sexcapades', Philippine Star) think that his alleged trips to China, ostensibly to broker the ZTE deal, would go unnoticed and unreported? Did this official think that the mantle of protection offered by his position would be enough to render him "invisible" to scrutiny?

Does DOTC Secretary Leandro Mendoza think that the charges being leveled against him by Rep. Carlos Padilla in regard to the ZTE deal will go the way most cases go in this country - nowhere?

The answer to these questions is, of course, yes. Absolutely. The ZTE deal, like all the issues bedeviling the administration, will not go away. Not least because the more they try to confuse the issue, the more that the public zeroes in on official wrongdoing.

To be sure, many people in the present and past governments have been behaving with impunity for years. As if it was their right to act without fear of penalty, raid our coffers and subvert our institutions without a care in the world. Elected and appointed officials seem concerned mainly with enriching themselves, not serving the people.

The "Comelec official" should have been busy working on giving us the honest and orderly elections we deserve, not running around China receiving dubious hospitality while brokering shady deals. The DOTC Secretary should have been immersed in improving our telecommunications networks with our benefit in mind, not his, if the allegations against him are true.

Slowly but surely, people have been working to combat that culture of official impunity, this "acquired narcissism". And so there is hope - through the writing of Jarius Bondoc and other journalists, the arrogance of some officials to bamboozle us via the ZTE deal has been brought to light. Through the actions of Rep. Padilla, we may get some relief.

The Black & White Movement lauds the actions being taken to uncover the elusive truth we have been seeking. We need to lift the veil of obfuscation, to clear our vision of smoke and mirrors. Only then will we be able to find resolution to these, and many other, important issues that this government wishes to keep obscured from view.

Misquoting Spiderman's Uncle Redux

It wasn't that long ago when the issue that occupied bloggers who counted themselves as part of the Oppostion was the threat of government repression. Around the time of PP1017, CPR, EO464 and all that, it was Mike Defensor who was admonishing us that freedom comes with great responsibility to which journalist Carlos Conde penned a magnificent rebuttal. I am reposting his essay since i feel the time is right to revisit its message:

With great power…*

By Carlos H. Conde

I find it extremely ironic that this administration, which exploited the sins of the press to justify a campaign of harassment and intimidation against its members, itself committed what would amount to a journalistic infraction: it misquoted the uncle of Spider-Man.

We hear them much too often these days, all the president’s men pontificating on television, on the radio and in print about how we, Filipinos, particularly journalists, should exercise more responsibility given the tremendous freedom we have.

Freedom of the press is not absolute, says the always smug secretary of justice. It comes with it a great amount of responsibility, chimes in Arroyo’s chief of staff, he who is so young and so…

But Uncle Ben never said, “With great freedom comes great responsibility.” What he told Spider-Man was: “With great POWER comes great responsibility.”

Please ponder for a moment this difference in the quotes. And while you do that, let me tell you a thing or two about my opinion of freedom.

I think there is no such thing as a partial freedom. Either you have it or you don’t. In an ideal world, people should be free to do whatever they want. It goes without saying that they know the consequences of that freedom.

In the context of the press, journalists expect unbridled freedom. If they abuse this freedom, freedom itself – in this case, the freedom by consumers to switch channels or subscribe to another paper — will check them. Freedom has a way, you see, of punishing those who abuse it.

I am willing to concede, however, that the State may be justified in its desire to sometimes attempt to curtail our freedoms. We see that in countries in which contending forces, if not checked, could end up destroying themselves, their people and their nation.

But for this regime to invoke the importance of responsibility vis-à-vis freedom in order to supposedly keep the peace is an arrogant and self-righteous notion. Self-serving, too, because, as we all know, this regime’s motives in declaring a state of national emergency was not the protection of the State. It was for the protection of its president.

This brings us to Uncle Ben’s quote about responsibility being a corollary of great power. Guess who acted irresponsibly in using its great power?

Guess who, according to various testimonies and allegations, used great power to subvert the results of the 2004 elections?

Guess who used great power to compromise the armed forces, which today is more politicized than ever before?

Guess who used great power to promote the same military officials implicated in the 2004 election cheating, thus assuring that nothing would come out of whatever investigation that was going to happen?
Guess who used great power to sow discontent within the military?

Guess who used great power to quash the ideals and dreams of these young men and women in the service?

Guess who used great power to arrest constitutionally elected members of the House of Representatives?

Guess who used great power to murder dozens of activists and journalists, constrict the democratic space and stifle dissent?

Guess who used great power to send troops storming the office of a puny but noisy newspaper?

Guess who used great power to intimidate and harass the press, threatening media companies of actual takeovers if they don’t toe the regime’s line?

This regime has had great, great power, and never had any compunction to use it – irresponsibly, if needed — in order to survive.

*Posted March 14, 2006 in Davao Today

Today, the calls for freedom with responsibility in support of the issue of the day comes from fellow Oppositionist Bloggers.

It's been said before that the measure of free speech is the degree to which our society can accommodate opposing (and even offensive) views. Asking someone to shut up is a sign that we fear not being able to win the argument fair and square. More importantly, what is being lost is the all important element of consistency. We can be sure that the government and other interested parties are just waiting for the right moment to turn our arguments (which used to be their arguments) against us. Compelling a person's (or a group's) silence will only come at the expense of the common space of freedom that we all share and need.

BoA The Live - The Love Bug ft M-flo

A catchy, upbeat number from BoA and rap group M-Flo.

Languages Used and the Perception of Intelligence

Thanks to educator-activist Antonio Calipjo Go, the errors found in Philippine school textbooks are now well publicized and discussed. The focus has rightly been on how the Department of Education (DECS) can allow obviously poor quality textbooks to be distributed for use. Apart from this issue however, i believe that another aspect needs to be looked at. In an earlier post by Jessica Zafra, she listed ten examples of errors found in these textbooks:

1. “Walang ulap kung umaga. Nasinghot na ng lumalaking populasyon.”
   
2. “Many Filipino men and women have brains.”
   
3. “He seemed to be waiting for someone, not a blood relation, much less a bad blood.”
   
4. “People are not made to float like a bird.”
   
5. “Seeing a rainbow in the sky is like a dream that disappears that’s why a child wants it painted permanently in the sky.”
   
6. “As the campers trek through the trail at the rainboat they’ll stop now and then. They had huffs and puffs.”
   
7. “The chicken was dressed. They stripped off her feathers, served her quite bare and everyone poked at her breast.”
   
8. “God’s footsteps bulged the mountains up. God like morning bending over her baby kneeled down in the dust.”
   
9. “On Basilio’s skull, fire nicked. The tiny fire had a blow, huge and quick. He touched the fire on his skull. Past all that is beyond, he runs.”
   
10. “Si Pres. Garcia ay kumita ng unang liwanag sa Talibon, Bohol.”

Assuming the sample list is representative of the population of errors, we can see above that a majority are errors that can be attributed to the author's inability to express himself/herself in English.

A switch to Filipino language would eliminate these kinds of mistakes. What is true of the textbook authors all the more applies to the majority of Filipinos. As an example, the humor from this post at Expectorants is derived largely from the same sort of mistakes (intentional or otherwise).

Mistakes in the use of English encourage the impression that the speakers are less intelligent that they actually are. Since English is widely used in the Philippines, mistakes occur quite frequently and the impression of lack of intelligence is reinforced. Our more prosperous neighbors, Japan and China also have their share of well publicized English mistakes but these do not have a widespread negative affect on the perception of intelligence of the ordinary Japanese and Chinese because they largely express themselves in their local tounge.

I believe textbook authors and most Filipinos will be able to express themselves more intelligently if allowed to use the language they are more comfortable with.

Malu Fernandez' Apology

Via Slap Happy, Malu Fernandez resigns from the two publications and issues the following apology:

"I am humbled by the vehement and heated response provoked by my article entitled 'From Boracay to Greece!' which came out in the June 2007 issue of People Asia. To say that this article was not meant to malign, hurt or express prejudice against the OFWs now sounds hollow after reading through all the blogs from Filipinos all over the world. I am deeply apologetic for my insensitivity and the offensive manner in which this article was written, I hear you all and I am properly rebuked. It was truly not my intention to malign hurt or express prejudice against OFWs.

As the recent recipient and target of death threats, hate blogs, and deeply personal insults, I now truly understand the insidiousness of discrimination and prejudice disguised as humor. Our society is bound together by human chains of kindness and decency. I have failed to observe this and I am now reaping the consequences of my actions. It is my fervent hope that the lessons that Ive learned are not lost on all those who through anonymous blogs, engaged in bigotry, discrimination, and hatred ( against overweight individuals , for example )

I take full responsibility for my actions and my friends and family have nothing to do with this. To date I have submitted my resignation letters to both the Manila Standard and People Asia, on that note may this matter be laid to rest."

I do hope she is sincere with the above apology which i think is as good as any that i've come across. A clear victory for OFW's, for bloggers (who did not need the help of Old Media in this campaign) and against elitism. However, i think the attacks directed at her weight will be historically viewed in a negative light. I also believe that the campaign to fire her is a setback for free speech and sets a potentially dangerous precedent as explained by Jego.

Update Aug-24-2007 10:15PM: Despite its being, in my view, a setback for free speech, it can also be considered a victory for a form of direct democracy that blogger Sparks calls the Cyber Counterculture Movement. I believe that at least some of the credit for this phenomenon goes to this individual.

Update Aug-24-2007 10:21PM: Via Manolo, Jove Francisco posts one of the most moving tributes to the OFW that i've read (particularly because it does not go over the top).

Update Aug-26-2007 3:27PM: Blogger Dominique compares the recent blogstorm to a Lynch Mob. While there are similarities with real life lynch mobs, i think that the analogy can be stretched too far. After all, what makes lynch mobs unnacceptable is the element of physical violence which is not possible in a virtual environment. For example, in the Blogosphere, Malu Fernandez can always put up her own blog where the worst thing that can happen to her is to be ignored.

Update Aug-27-2007 11:03PM: Blogger Smoke points to an interesting twist a-la Poltergeist II.

Summer Scent - Zuo You Wei Nan Song

Excuse the cheesy music video, but i have been looking for this song from way back. I have no idea what it's about but i like the melody.

Elitist Mindset in Action

Via Schumey, it is clear that whatever school this lady came from did not teach history properly. It is also unfortunate that her parents failed to teach her the right values. As expected, she and like-minded individuals would rationalize that they are just 'being real'. Of course, such an excuse is self-serving because facing reality in its fullness would require admitting to themselves that they are grotesque specimens of humanity.

Either that or she's just channeling Simoun and trying to manufacture another EDSA Tres moment, in which case all i can say is congratulations and keep up the good work.

Update (August 17, 12:25pm): It turns out that the columnist is Migz Zubiri's aunt.





It figures.

Update (August 18, 2:33PM): I'm not in favor of having her fired for the same reasons given by John Marzan. It was really only a matter of time before the inevitable Tu Quoque would be brought up, which as has been discussed before, is logically flawed but may be morally compelling depending on the context. I've been in enough conversations (with both fellow OFW's and home-based Pinoys) where we have criticized other nationals for the very same reasons that Malu Fernandez has so i would have to toss aside the stone on this one.

Update (August 18, 8:29PM): As a response to those who are not in favor of getting Fernandez fired, blogger Sparks stresses the importance of distinguising between private communication (e.g. among a circle of friends) and writing for public consumption. I still have to digest the significance of this line of argument. My ambivalence towards firing is that i don't want this line of thinking to go underground. Here in Singapore, the government has legislated 'Out of Bounds' (OB) markers, i.e. matters that cannot be talked about. I wouldn't want our own version of that. If the Manila Standard wants to build itself up as the newspaper for the elitist mindset, then that's their lookout. It's better if the elitists and racists are where we can see them so that we can put them up as negative examples. For one thing, Malu Fernandez' name dropping could be useful for the purposes of a future transitional spring cleaning.

EDSA Tres and the Filipino Majority

Ten days ago over at Manolo's, i made the following comment...

grd, to me mlq3’s blog site roughly* represents the sensibilities of the EDSA Dos crowd which has fragmented to different camps because of Gloria’s illegitimacy. ellen’s site roughly* represents EDSA Tres and therefore the Filipino majority. Our nation can only move forward if both sections of our society engage in an honest dialogue, but that can only be built on an atmosphere of mutual respect. As it is, i see that many over here still subscribe to your (and Benign0’s) attitude of refusing to empathize and understand and instead assuming an air of unwarranted superiority. Just as One Voice is supposed to reunite the EDSA Dos crowd, there should be an equivalent attempt to do so between EDSA Dos and EDSA Tres camps. As it is, post election dynamics seems to be going the opposite direction.

* Please note emphasis on the ‘roughly’.

...to which Rom reacted:

"cvj:just a minor quibble - edsa tres cannot represent the majority of the nation, whether numerically or ideologically."

I promised an explanation so i did some research. I got hold of this book that Manolo recommended two weeks back and this in turn led me to the Pulse Asia’s October 2005 Ulat ng Bayan Survey Report: Media Release on People Power. The survey reports on the in EDSA, EDSA Dos and EDSA Tres. As shown in the table below, for the latter, it was at around 2 percent nationwide:
Source: Pulse Asia
Two percent of the adult (over 18) population is around 1 million, clearly not a majority but we already knew that. The real question is, how much support did the crowd have? This is answered by the survey question on the level of support for such a mass action which according to the table below is eight percent nationwide:

Source: Pulse Asia
Eight percent is about eight million, again clearly not a majority. To cross-validate this data, we can use the votes given to Loi Ejercito Estrada during the May 2001 elections as proxy for support of EDSA Tres which is at 10.5 million.

Therefore**, linking the EDSA Tres crowd to the majority does not stand up to scrutiny. On this assertion, I stand corrected. Whatever electoral majority that the Opposition achieved in the recent elections has sources other than (or in addition to) that particular People Power event.

** Assuming the above survey results are representative of the general population and subject to the margin of error.

Civil War as Psychotherapy

I am disturbed at how often i hear Civil War being proposed by the very people who would most likely be its victims. Just the other day, commenter BrianB over at mlq3 sounded like a true Jacobin when he declared:

"Pare, France is a great place to live in because of the Terror. Besides, we have smarter people than Danton and Robespierre. People who know how to blog and look at their email."

Naturally, I was heartened when another commenter Devilsadvc8 responded:

"You’ll be surprised at how many “smart” people revert back to being barbaric when surrounded by evil. I believe Winnie Monsod called it Lucifer Effect (or something) That’s what happened to the French revolution. anger got out of hand, and fellow revolutionaries who showed a hint of sympathy with the enemies, were hanged along with them. it’s like the NPA purges. anything less than blind obedience (or great acting) would be branded as a betrayal of the cause... and btw, if this were to happen (an Bastille-like event), you think those who blog and email will be the ones leading it or the ones being dragged out into the streets? use your imagination man."

Nicely said, i thought to myself, which is why i was taken aback when on the very next day, the same Devilsadvc8 pretty much endorsed BrianB's idea from the day before:

"I believe civil war can do what everyone has failed to do. unite the survivors of that war in a common goal of correcting our past’s terrible effect on our psyche, and forging a new history for the Filipino people. spilling blood and fighting for a cause are what Filipinos need."

I have since had further exchanges with him over at that thread on the merits of this option. What i find specially curious is the commonly held belief in the supposed benefits of such an event on the Philippine national psyche. Back in 2005, another mlq3 commenter 'X' made a similar suggestion:

"you know ive been thinking about something similar to what the automechanic said. Perhaps is lies in the fact that the price we pay for our democracy is too cheap. assemble a few thousand people in Edsa, convince a few influential people to be there too and convince the military to join. it’s too easy.

unlike with bloodshed. it something that nobody wants to experience, and if we as a people carry some sort of baggage in our psyche about not wanting to have bloodshed again, perhaps FIlipinos would be more protective of TRUE democracy."

I really don't understand how they can assume that those are precisely the lessons that will be learned.

Update 08-11-2007: Devilsadvc8 provides a background on the circumstances that has led him to reach his above recommendation. [Devils, thanks for explaining your side.]

Climate Change and Salt

I just finished watching the 'Mega Disasters: Mega Freeze' documentary in The History Channel which explains how global warming can disrupt the Thermohaline Circulation (THC)* causing an abrupt drop in temperatures in Europe and North America similar to what happened during the Younger Dryas** (12700 to 11500 years Before Present) setting off a chain of disasters that will reduce the estimated carrying capacity of the planet from the current 8 billion people to 2 billion.

If the THC is as important to maintaining the present climate as that documentary says it is, a simple (and perhaps simplistic) solution would be to throw more salt into the Ocean to maintain present levels of salinity. How much more salt and how to do this would be the challenge facing the world's scientists and engineers.

Update 08-11-2007: Via bookforum.com, a pointer to Mad scientists vs. global warming.

Update 01-01-2008: Via bookforum.com, a pointer to The Year's 10 Craziest Ways to Hack the Earth.

*For those who watched The Day After Tomorrow, the disruption of the Thermohaline Circulation is what triggered the Ice Age in that movie.
**Al Gore also talked about this in his movie, An Inconvenient Truth.

This Is Beach

Tag Response: Eight Random Facts About Me

I've been tagged by Sparks. Here are the rules for “8 facts”:

• In the 8 facts about [name], you share 8 things that your readers don’t know about you. At the end, you tag 8 other bloggers to keep the fun going. Each blogger must post these rules first.
• Each blogger starts with eight random facts/habits about themselves.
• At the end of the post, a blogger needs to choose eight people to get tagged and list their names.
• Don’t forget to leave them a comment telling them they’re tagged, and to read your blog.

Here is mine (in chronological order):

Fact #1: I've had trouble sleeping early (and waking up early) since i was a kid. (Early in my career, i almost got fired because of this.)
Fact #2: I do not follow sporting events.
Fact #3: I hate shopping (except for books or music cd's). It drains me of my life force.
Fact #4: I took up Accounting in College, but i've worked in Information Technology all throughout my working life. I did so in part because i wanted to be were the action is and not just be a scorekeeper. Only later did i realize that scorekeeping is the game and in the business world at least, IT professionals exist mainly to serve Accountants.
Fact #5: I once accidentally deleted the payroll file of the Philippine National Police (PNP).
Fact #6: I read only non-fiction books. I estimate that it will take me at least twenty years to go through my collection (more than 800 so far).
Fact #7: I don't mind eating with other people, but on normal days, i prefer eating alone.
Fact #8: I sleep with the lights and tv on, even if the tv is outside my room.

I'm tagging the following eight bloggers:

Jaxius
Torn and Frayed
Village Idiot Savant
Tingog
Manila Bay Watch
Arbet
Schumey
Peryodistang Pinay

Top 10 Emerging Influential Blogs (personal nominees)

Via Manolo Quezon, Janette Toral's Top 10 Emerging Influential Blogs in 2007. My three (3) nominees are:

1. Tingog
2. Smoke
3. Jaxius

As far as i know, all the above have started blogging after August 2006 and have in one way or the other influenced my thinking through their blog entries and comments.

Four Years Ago Today

Four years ago today, i wanted these guys to be bombed to oblivion. I thought to myself then, how dare they disrupt our peaceful, democratic way of life and bring us back to the bad old days of attempted coups. I never expected that i would be voting for one of them in the last election. I still would not condone the way they risked the lives of the Oakwood residents but i do appreciate the logic behind their widthrawal of support. As they have warned us, all is not well and subsequent events have revealed the true nature of Gloria Macapagal Arroyo's Administration and the Military Generals who prop her up. We are a nation that is fast running out of selfless and wise elders, not that they were in abundant supply in the first place. Our hope as a people rests on enabling young leaders like Captain Faeldon and Senator Trillanes to put their ideals into action, as they have done so since July 27, 2003.

Philippine Elections: What (and What Not) to Automate

Halalang Marangal (HALAL) has released its Audit Report Number 4 on the May 2007 mid-term elections. It details the areas in which the COMELEC and NAMFREL fell short during the past exercise (refer to the PCIJ's blog entry for a summary) and derives lessons on how future elections can be improved. Of particular interest are its recommendations on what part of the process to automate, and more importantly, what not to automate. The current manual system can be divided into three stages:

1. Voting
2. Precinct-level counting
3. Canvass (which takes place at the Municipal, Provincial & National levels)

HALAL recommends that the precinct tally not be automated. The Audit Report states:

"The manual counting of votes at the precinct level is superior to automated counting in terms of openness, transparency, and providing an invaluable lesson in civics to all participants and witnesses. Because it is non-automated and open, it is slow enough that any citizen can actually audit in real-time the counting process. But because of its massively parallel approach of simultaneous tallies in all the two hundred thousand plus precincts in the country, is also fast enough that results are usually in within 6-12 hours."[emphasis mine]

HALAL makes a good point about the social value of the precinct level tally which will be lost if we implemented a system like the one from Mega-Pacific that was junked by the Supreme Court. Instead, it recommends automation to start at the Municipal level canvassing:

"HALAL recommends that ERs be encoded into computers as soon as they are brought to a municipal canvassing center. HALAL recommends, once the ERs are encoded, that original printouts be made available at cost to any interested party, during the municipal canvassing and afterwards, as certified true copies of these ERs...once ERs are encoded, that all subsequent consolidations, additions of row and column totals, computations of indicators like voter turnouts and ballot fill-up rates, and the printing of certified true copies of SOVs/COCs be done with computers."

We can better follow the logic of this recommendation if we look at a timeline of the recently concluded canvassing process:

Timeline of COMELEC Canvass by Region
(click on image to enlarge)

The above timeline shows that canvassing takes much longer than the average precinct tally (which was completed within 6 to 12 hours according to HALAL as quoted above), taking almost sixty days for the entire process to complete. It also reveals a weak relationship between the number of votes and the time taken to canvass those votes. For Region 4A, 36 million aggregate votes for Senators were canvassed in three days. By contrast, the much fewer 8.5 million votes of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) took forty six days for the same process. This means that for the recently concluded election, in terms of percentage of votes canvassed, we found ourselves in a situation where it took as long for the COMELEC to certify the remaining three percent of the Senatorial votes as it did the preceding ninety-seven percent. (Refer to diagram below showing the percentage of Senatorial votes canvassed over time.)

Percentage of Senatorial Votes Canvassed Over Time
(click on image to enlarge)

Entering the results at the initial stage of the canvassing process i.e. the municipal level, would help shorten the duration by taking advantage of the near simultaneous data entry that takes place among the country's hundreds of municipalities. More importantly, it would also make it harder to massage the data further down the line especially if as HALAL advises, it is immediately made available online:

"All ERs, SOVs and COCs should be put online or at least be made available to any interested party, together with their file checksums, at no additional cost, making the entire tabulation process completely transparent."

The attributes of transparency and auditability are emphasized because the last thing we need is an automated system that operates like a black-box. With these in mind, i believe that such an automated system must be built as Open Source software.

Automation that does not lend itself to inspection will just bring forth a younger breed of technology savvy Bedol-types. We can get a flavor of such a 'black box' type system in the results of the local absentee votes. As can be seen in the first diagram above, the canvassing of the local absentee ballots was completed relatively quickly and early (by May 20). Within these local absentee votes, Zubiri emerged as the topnotcher. Was the result fair? Who knows?

Update Aug-24-2007: Via Manolo, it's a hopeful sign that the media is giving some attention to Verzola's advocacy.

Rice and Chips: Replicating the Silicon Valley Model

In his book, Rice and Chips: Technopreneurship and Innovation in Asia, Dennis Posadas, IT industry veteran and BusinessWorld I.T. Matters columnist, identifies what he sees as the distinguishing elements (e.g. geographic clustering, universities and research institutes as catalysts, the availability of venture capital etc.) that made Silicon Valley the exemplar for high technology entrepreneurship and innovation. He then provides a survey on how these elements are being replicated across Asia (including the Philippines) as well as some pointers on how the model is (or can be) adapted to suit the local context. In this area, he touches upon the importance of an institutional framework, the role of returnee Asians from the West as well as the need to promote a culture that tolerates failure.

Much of the value of the book comes from his interviews with Asian entrepreneurs such as Deepak Amin of Covelix and Peter Valdes, Fil-Am co-founder of Tivoli Systems, a systems management software company that was eventually acquired by IBM.

Of particular interest to me is his discussion of the role of industrial policy in developing the Information and High Technology industries which he labels Techno-nationalism and defines as:

"a desire to free their economies from an over reliance on Western technologies, and to be recognized internationally for the ability to develop their own cutting-edge technologies. Most Asian economies drive innovation through national programs rather than market-driven research and development"

This observation squares with what i have previously written about concerning industrial development. The role of the State has been a contentious issue (for example in the comments section here). Nevertheless, i believe that the author remains relatively agnostic about this matter and acknowledges the useful role that multinationals play in driving innovation.

More about matters concerning the book here.

Cebu Prison Inmates Perform Michael Jackson's Thriller

Saw this featured at boingboing.net. With almost 400K hits in 6 days, looks like it's on its way to the Youtube record books.

Rodrik on Kinds of Growth Spurts

Dani Rodrik compares Asian vs. African growth accelerations with respect to over- and under-valuation of the exchange rate. He explains:

"In Asia, growth is typically engineered by increasing the profitability in manufacturing and other tradables. But in Africa the typical growth spurt is preceded by aid inflows and other transfers, which appreciate the exchange rate, and render future growth less sustainable."

Read the whole thing here.

Substitute "remittances" for "aid" and it would appear that we are once again in the wrong continent.

Mama Mary vs. Musa

Manolo Quezon was right. There has been "a last minute miracle of the sinister sort". Of course, Migz Zubiri was also right when he said that "Quezon was not aware of all the strategies, both new and time-tested, employed by my team." Now we know. After today, no one can deny that a mere mortal like Musa Dimasidsing was indeed no match to Mama Mary. This is obvious once we compare their respective track records in driving voter turnout in Maguindanao.Voter Turnout*
(click on image to enlarge)

The diagram above shows that in the municipalities under her control, Mama Mary achieved a voter participation rate in the high 90's, well beyond the 68% national average. Next to this, Musa's anemic 23% voter turnout rate in Pagalungan is hard not to notice.

Encouraging voter participation is one thing, but that's only the start. What really matters is the ability to compel these voters to write 'Zubiri' on the ballot. As shown in the diagram below, while Musa can only manage a 42% success rate, Mama Mary was able to convince no less than 96% of the voters in the Maguindanao Precincts under her responsibility to do so, again much better than the 72% achieved in Zubiri's home province of Bukidnon.

Percentage of Votes Cast for Zubiri**

(click on image to enlarge)
Just to leave no room for doubt that Zubiri's victory is not of this world, Mama Mary left miraculous signs reminiscent of her Son's miracle of the loaves and fishes as manifested through the ballot fill-up rate.
Ballot Fill-Up Rate***
(Click on image to enlarge)
As the diagram above shows, not only were the electorate of one of our poorest province able to achieve ballot fill-up rates beyond that of the members of the A, B & C Classes, with the help of Mama Mary, they even managed to break through the math barrier and fill up more names than the form would allow. The fact that there was a maximum of twelve blanks to be filled up was not an issue when it came to the municipalities of Ampatuan, Datu Anggal Midtimbang, Paglat, South Upi and Sultan sa Barongis. By contrast, Musa can barely manage to fill in an average of three names per form in Pagalungan.

All this means that Zubiri is correct when he says that he owes his victory to Mama Mary. In the Maguindanao municipalities where Mama Mary was present, Migz was ranked Number 1. It was only in Pagalungan where Migz ended up in a respectable but nevertheless unspectacular 7th place. While as the PCIJ states, it is true that "the Pagalungan voting results also more closely reflect the outcome of elections in the five other provinces of the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao", this can also be taken as proof that Pagalungan's results reflect its total lack of supernatural origins.

The above facts speak for themselves and as Wittgenstein would say, "Whereof one cannot speak, thereof one must remain silent".

*Source: Why You Should Doubt The Maguindanao Election Results, Avigail Olarte, July 3, 2007. Voter turnout percentages in the diagram is computed by dividing NO. OF REGISTERED VOTERS WHO ACTUALLY VOTED by NO. OF REGISTERED VOTERS (Comelec May 3 Memo). National Voter Turnout computed from National Tally Sheet SENATORIAL CANVASS REPORT No. 30.
**Source: Why You Should Doubt The Maguindanao Election Results - 5, Avigail Olarte, July 12, 2007.
***Source: Why You Should Doubt The Maguindanao Election Results - 4, Isa Lorenzo, July 12, 2007. The Ballot fill-up rates as shown in the diagram for Nationwide-ABC, Nationwide-D and Nationwide-E Classes is from The educational and class vote for Senator, Social Weather Stations (SWS), May 12, 2007. Lady of Manaoag image from http://www.chabelle.com.

Ricky Gervais and The Long Tail

This is probably old news to some of you, but I only came to know about two surprising pieces of information just now:

1. Ricky Gervais of The Office fame was the singer of my favorite new wave song; and
   
2. More To Lose (as performed by his band Seona Dancing) did not do well in the UK Charts or anywhere else. It became a hit only in the Philippines two years after it was released. (It looks like the rest of the world suffered from a failure of taste.)
   

I think that the way this song did poorly in the beginning and eventually became a hit once it reached our shores would qualify as an early example of The Long Tail.

Pirate Governance and Self-Dealing

I learned a new word today - "self dealing" which is an apt term to characterize Manny Villar's recent actions. In his New Yorker article, James Surowiecki introduces this word and describes how Pirates (as in 'Pirates of the Carribean') adopted a system of governance to discourage such behavior. Towards the end of the article, he reaches the following conclusion:

"pirate governance, peculiar as it may sound, offers an intriguing example of how limits on executive power can actually make an enterprise more successful and, because workers are convinced they’re being treated fairly, can deepen their commitment."

Read the rest here.

(Hat tip to Marginal Revolution.)

Update (12:06pm): Just occurred to me, we have seen how mutiny can come about as a result of the leadership's self-dealing.

Privacy without Anonymity*

Yesterday, Manolo remarked that the two Senate bills to require registration of SIM cards might "irk the public". It probably will, but such a step is necessary in these times. Registration of SIM cards is essential for law enforcement especially now that cell phones are used as triggering devices for car bombs.

Maybe the public will be less irked if they are assured that sacrificing anonymity does not necessarily mean giving up privacy. The lawmakers who would take away the phone user’s anonymity are also responsible for putting more safeguards to that same phone user’s privacy.

In addition to requiring SIM card registration, the Telco's (e.g. Globe, SMART and Sun) should also be required to log the coordinates of every called number (gps coordinates if possible) as part of the call data record as an aid to subsequent investigation(s). However, such records should be kept confidential under normal circumstances.

As i told fellow commenter Baycas last year, society has to find a way to accept the loss of anonymity while strengthening safeguards to privacy.

One example of eliminating anonymity is the requirement to clearly identify a person as well as centralize personal information for easy access (via Identity Cards and a corresponding online database) which is in itself is a very useful for security and administrative purposes. However, this will only be acceptable if such information is treated with the same level of sanctity as a Swiss Bank Account accessible only by the person himself or through a valid court order. Making a person carry around his/her Identity Card and demanding it to be shown at will, opens the system to abuse resulting in further discontent and/or loss of freedom.

While we're on the subject, over at Crookedtimber, there is an informative entry on a form of information theft called phishing. It narrates specific cases of possible phishing incidents in the photo sharing website flickr.

Update (July 11, 2007 12:16pm): In the comments section, blogger Manila Baywatch gives a detailed explanation of how such a system of privacy without anonymity works in France through the various stages of a French citizen's existence.

*First three paragraphs was also submitted as a comment in mlq3's blog.

Sellout

A lot has already been said about the reported alliance between the supposedly Genuine Opposition(GO) Senators Villar, Cayetano, Escudero, Jinggoy Estrada with their pro-Administration counterparts in the battle for the Senate Presidency. The Black and White Movement has issued its Urgent Appeal. Other bloggers (here and here) have done so as well. Manolo Quezon while gallantly trying to put things into context, likewise criticized the actions of the Senators as the wrong kind of addition. Ellen Tordesillas who has supported the GO candidates through thick and thin likewise expressed her disappointment especially with Alan Peter Cayetano. In a series of comments, i believe blogger (and Ellenville regular) Yuko Takei, best reflects the sentiment of the majority who voted for the opposition:

"...Villar, et al should not forget that the reason why the Filipinos voted for them was to oppose the creeps from succeeding in abolishing the Senate with the creeps bent on establishing a unicameral legislative under a monarchy with the criminal promising her supporters most probably this and that title if they help her fulfill her ambition to be queen...

...Let’s face it. Malacanang had Plan B, and it has succeeded with its plan to break up the Opposition because Binay had not been wiser NOT to include the likes of Villar, with or wiithout the consent of Erap. I had a feeling something like this would happen and why I was reluctant to accept Villar, Pangilinan and even Legarda as a matter of fact, but pakikisama, I promoted GO in Japan with emphasis on Trillanes.

Doon lang nga nakatimbog si Binay kay Trillanes, who has proven to be the only genuine opposition. Thanks to the 11M enlightened Filipinos who voted for him and proved what they could in fact do and achieve. They will surely remember that. By 2010, their number will not just double but triple, etc...

...I felt betrayed especially regarding Cayetano, but it’s OK. Maaga mas mabuti! You should not feel confused and defeated, too. We can fight as a matter of fact to avenge ourselves!!!"

By failing to demonstrate purity of intent, the crisis of representation continues. The actions of our newly elected Opposition Senators' is one more blow to representative democracy in the Philippines, another failure of the principal-agent relationship between the voters and the elected. Starting at least with Erap's election in 1998, the faith of the people in our restored democracy has taken a beating and the recent shortsighted actions of these young and once promising new breed of Senators is one more step in this continuing loss of credibility.

Update 6:40PM: Over at Ellen's, commenter Sampot voices out a sentiment that i believe will be increasingly popular in the wake of this fiasco:

"The last election is my last.

In fact i was hesitant then to participate because politics in this country seems like a roller coaster ride.

Yesterday, it’s the Filipino Voter who doesn’t seem to know how to choose a candidate. Today, it’s the winning candidate who doesn’t seem to know how to choose between the interests of the people against his own.

These people are not only offered Committee Chairmanships but Cabinet Positions.

I can hardly remember who once said this, “My loyalty to the party ends, where my loyalty to the people begins.”

Why can’t we accept the fact that the solution is beyond routine flock to the precincts? We need to dismantle the whole system and establish a Caretaker Government.

The only reason why i did participate in the last elections was Trillanes."

It's interesting that the credibility of our democracy is now in the hands of an alleged coup plotter. Personally, i don't believe a 'caretaker' government is a step in the right direction since Filipino leaders get too easily drunk with power, but such desperation is understandable.

＊Ask Lucy＊ -Part2- ①

Update July 10, 2007: Embedding has been disallowed so you can watch the video here.

Part One is here.

Hans Rosling: Debunking third-world myths (TED 2006) and Insights on Poverty (TED 2007)

I just came across an impressive twenty minute presentation at TED 2006 by Hans Rosling, co-founder of the GapMinder Foundation.

He deftly uses his Trendalyzer software (recently acquired by Google) to present basic truths about the state of health, inequality, gdp per capita between and within countries over the past decades. Viewed from that time span, conditions do seem to be getting better.

For the more recent TED 2007, Rosling returns with an equally enlightening nineteen minute presentation, using longer timescales and ends with an impressive demo. (The Philippines gets special mention at 5:01.)

If you want to get the big picture when it comes to economic and human development, the videos are worth watching.

(Via boingboing.net)